PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
MAC³PARK Stadion Sun, 3 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle PEC
1 Winner 0
Heracles Almelo HEA
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Anselmo García MacNulty - 19'
Goal
|
|
Second yellow card Sem Scheperman 63'

CONTEXT

PEC Zwolle claimed a narrow 1-0 win over Heracles Almelo, striking first in the opening half to lead 1-0 at halftime. Despite Heracles controlling 55% possession against Zwolle's 45%, a second-half red card to the visitors altered the game's flow, allowing the home team to defend resolutely. As the stronger side, PEC Zwolle maintained control post-sending-off, securing the points in a match marked by discipline and opportunism. This outcome featured a significant structural deviation of 37.3% favoring the winners, with market alignment confirmed and efficiency in line. The red card introduced clear distortion, emphasizing its role in the second period. No xG data was available to further analyze chance quality.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: PEC Zwolle's 1-0 win showed a significant structural deviation of 37.3%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true for the home victory.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to null data.
  • Event impact: Heracles red card impacted second-half dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to away team caused second-half distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Dieperink

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

R. van Rijn

1st Assistant

R. Kunst

2nd Assistant

S. Smit

4th Official

PEC Zwolle Henry van der Vegt
Henry van der Vegt
VS
Heracles Almelo E. Faber
E. Faber
1.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.65
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
PSV Rank: 85 L
Excelsior Rank: 58 D
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: 67 L
NAC Breda Rank: 54 W
FC Groningen Rank: 66 D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Volendam Rank: 59 L
Ajax Rank: 75 L
SC Heerenveen Rank: 70 L
Excelsior Rank: 62 D
AZ Rank: 76 L
FC Utrecht Rank: 71 D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PEC Zwolle
62.66%
Draw
19.84%
Away Heracles Almelo
17.5%

Movement

Changes since opening
PEC Zwolle
-31.45%
Draw
+14.19%
Heracles Almelo
+17.26%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.5
55.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PEC Zwolle
Heracles Almelo
Power Score
63.5
55.4
League Position
12
18
Global Rank
378
630

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PEC Zwolle — Opponent-weighted form score
Heracles Almelo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PEC Zwolle Heracles Almelo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

PEC Zwolle

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Heracles Almelo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

PEC Zwolle ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Heracles Almelo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.33
29.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.09
24.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
PEC Zwolle -0.46 Efficiency Index
vs
Heracles Almelo +0.46 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
PEC Zwolle
Heracles Almelo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

PEC Zwolle ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Heracles Almelo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
PEC Zwolle Heracles Almelo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
PEC Zwolle Heracles Almelo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
PEC Zwolle
Heracles Almelo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
PEC Zwolle
vs
Heracles Almelo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
PEC Zwolle Heracles Almelo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
PEC Zwolle 0.23
Heracles Almelo 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
PEC Zwolle Heracles Almelo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
PEC Zwolle 0.00
Heracles Almelo 0.03
PEC Zwolle
Heracles Almelo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PEC had peak pressure around 91'.
  • HEA started the game with stronger pressure.
PEC Pressure HEA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PEC reached the top pressure at 91' (77.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 24 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

PEC Zwolle PEC Home
24 matches
Heracles Almelo HEA Away
Match Record
7
Wins
12
5
Draws
5
12
Losses
7
Goals
32
Goals Scored
47
47
Goals Conceded
32
-15
Goal Difference
+15

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. de Graaff
Netherlands
16 T. de Graaff
O. Aertssen
Netherlands
3 O. Aertssen
S. Graves Jensen
Denmark
28 S. Graves Jensen
A. McNulty
Republic of Ireland
4 A. McNulty
S. Floranus
Substitution
Curaçao
2 S. Floranus
R. Thomas
Substitution
New Zealand
30 R. Thomas
Z. Buurmeester
Netherlands
8 Z. Buurmeester
O. Velanas
Substitution
Netherlands
18 O. Velanas
T. Oosting
Netherlands
25 T. Oosting
K. de Rooij
Netherlands
22 K. de Rooij
K. Kostons
Netherlands
10 K. Kostons
Pitch
T. Jansink
Netherlands
16 T. Jansink
D. van der Kust
Substitution
Suriname
5 D. van der Kust
A. Van Hoorenbeeck
Belgium
18 A. Van Hoorenbeeck
D. Mirani
Netherlands
4 D. Mirani
M. Benita
Substitution
Netherlands
2 M. Benita
S. Scheperman
Netherlands
32 S. Scheperman
J. Žambůrek
Substitution
Czech Republic
13 J. Žambůrek
M. Engels
Substitution
Germany
8 M. Engels
W. Ould-Chikh
Substitution
Netherlands
73 W. Ould-Chikh
T. van Gilst
Netherlands
17 T. van Gilst
L. Kulenović
Canada
19 L. Kulenović

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MAC³PARK Stadion
Capacity :
14000
Attendance :
13749
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rob Dieperink
Rick van Rijn
Robert Kunst
Stan Smit

Statistics

Possession
PEC
45%
HEA
55%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
5 Shots 3
39 Dangerous attacks 40
45 Possession 55
3 Corners 3
18 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

17 Throwins 17
8 Goal Kicks 6
11 Dribble Attempts 16
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 63
5 Successful Dribbles 10
14 Successful Headers 15
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Substitutions 5
80 Ball Safe 95
6 Goal Attempts 10

Attacking

95 Attacks 105
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

271 Successful Passes 347
55 Long Passes 65
20 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
8 Key Passes 10
11 Successful Long Passes 29
363 Passes 423
75 Successful Passes Percentage 82

Defensive

52 Duels Won 49
10 Interceptions 4
15 Tackles 6
3 Saves 4

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 27
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

4 Offsides 1
18 Fouls 18

Lineup

Referee : Rob Dieperink

Starting XI ▼

16
Tom de Graaff
Tom de Graaff Goalkeeper
6.89
2
Sherel Floranus
Sherel Floranus Defender
6.59
5
Tijs Velthuis
Tijs Velthuis
Defender80'
6.48
3
Olivier Aertssen
Olivier Aertssen Defender
6.56
4
Anselmo García MacNulty
Anselmo García MacNulty Defender
6.66
28
Simon Graves
Simon Graves Defender
6.79
8
Zico Buurmeester
Zico Buurmeester Midfielder
6.36
18
Odysseus Velanas
Odysseus Velanas Midfielder
6.81
34
Nick Fichtinger
Nick Fichtinger
Midfielder72'
6.58
22
Kaj de Rooij
Kaj de Rooij Midfielder
6.81
25
Thijs Oosting
Thijs Oosting Midfielder
6.8
30
Ryan Thomas
Ryan Thomas Midfielder
6.91
35
Jamiro Monteiro
Jamiro Monteiro
Midfielder73'
6.66
10
Koen Kostons
Koen Kostons Attacker
6.99
Referee : Rob Dieperink

Starting XI ▼

16
Timo Jansink
Timo Jansink Goalkeeper
6.75
2
Mimeirhel Benita
Mimeirhel Benita Defender
6.57
41
Tarik Hamamioglu
Tarik Hamamioglu
Attacker87'
4
Damon Mirani
Damon Mirani Defender
6.67
5
Djevencio van der Kust
Djevencio van der Kust Defender
6.46
3
Jannes Wieckhoff
Jannes Wieckhoff
Defender46'
6.34
18
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Defender
6.74
8
Mario Engels
Mario Engels Midfielder
6.45
14
Erik Ahlstrand
Erik Ahlstrand
Midfielder59'
6.6
13
Jan Zamburek
Jan Zamburek Midfielder
6.63
6
Sava-Arangel Cestic
Sava-Arangel Cestic
Defender71'
6.62
17
Tristan van Gilst
Tristan van Gilst Midfielder
6.53
32
Sem Scheperman
Sem Scheperman Midfielder
6.99
73
Walid Ould-Chikh
Walid Ould-Chikh Midfielder
6.88
7
Bryan Limbombe
Bryan Limbombe
Attacker59'
6.66
19
Luka Kulenovic
Luka Kulenovic Attacker
6.87

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Tarik Hamamioglu → Mimeirhel Benita
8th Substitution
Event
Koen Kostons
Goal disallowed
86'
Event
Tijs Velthuis → Sherel Floranus
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Jamiro Monteiro → Ryan Thomas
6th Substitution
73'
Event
Nick Fichtinger → Odysseus Velanas
5th Substitution
72'
71'
Event
Sava-Arangel Cestic → Jan Zamburek
4th Substitution
Event
Sherel Floranus
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
68'
63'
Event
Sem Scheperman
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
62'
Event
Sem Scheperman
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
59'
Event
Erik Ahlstrand → Mario Engels
2nd Substitution
59'
Event
Bryan Limbombe → Walid Ould-Chikh
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Jannes Wieckhoff → Djevencio van der Kust
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
38'
Event
Djevencio van der Kust
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
31'
Event
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ryan Thomas
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
21'
Event
Anselmo García MacNulty
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Erik Ahlstrand takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Substitution Substitution
Tarik Hamamiogl is substituted off for Mimeirhel Benita.
84
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Koen Kostons takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
84
Update Update
VAR decision results in a disallowed goal for Koen Kostons due to offside.
82
Attempt Attempt
Luka Kulenovic's right-footed shot is blocked.
80
Update Update
Tristan Gooijer is on, and Sheral Floranus is off.
78
Attempt Attempt
Nick Fichtinger's left-footed shot is saved.
75
Attempt Attempt
Mimeirhel Benita takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Substitution Substitution
Nick Fichtinger is substituted for Odysseus Velanas.
73
Update Update
Jamiro Gregory Monteiro Alvarenga comes on for Ryan Thomas.
71
Update Update
Sava-Arangel Cestic comes on for Jan Zamburek.
69
Attempt Attempt
Jan Zamburek takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
68
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sheral Floranus receives a yellow card.
67
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a right-footed shot but misses.
66
Attempt Attempt
Zico Buurmeester takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sem Scheperman receives a second yellow card.
62
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sem Scheperman receives a yellow card.
59
Update Update
Erik Ahlstrand replaces Mario Engels.
59
Update Update
Bryan Limbombe Ekango comes on for Walid Ould Chikh.
53
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a right-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Koen Kostons takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Jannes Luca Wieckhoff is on, and Djevencio van der Kust is off.
38
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Djevencio van der Kust receives a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Walid Ould Chikh takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Walid Ould Chikh takes a right-footed shot but misses.
35
Attempt Attempt
Odysseus Velanas takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Aertssen attempts a header but misses the shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Koen Kostons takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck receives a yellow card.
26
Attempt Attempt
Luka Kulenovic takes a left-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ryan Thomas receives a yellow card.
19
Attempt Attempt
Tristan van Gilst takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
Attempt Attempt
Anselmo Garcia McNulty takes a left-footed shot and scores.
17
Attempt Attempt
Djevencio van der Kust's left-footed shot is blocked.
15
Attempt Attempt
Odysseus Velanas takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
9
Attempt Attempt
Sem Scheperman takes a left-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

PEC Zwolle's 1-0 triumph highlighted their defensive strength and ability to exploit Heracles' numerical disadvantage after the red card. Leading 1-0 at halftime, they absorbed pressure despite ceding possession, underscoring tactical maturity. This result aligns with their stronger team status, showing significant deviation yet market consistency and steady efficiency. The sending-off proved pivotal, distorting proceedings and aiding the hosts' victory. A solid performance positions Zwolle well moving forward.

PEC Zwolle vs Heracles Almelo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Eredivisie, Netherlands View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Ronny Breivik

Read ronnyB’s Best Previews posts for matchday analysis, odds movement insights, football previews, and value-focused fixture coverage.