PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
MAC³PARK Stadion Sun, 12 Apr - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle PEC
2 – 2
Excelsior EXC
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 12:30 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Odysseus Velanas - 60'
Thijs Oosting - 3'
Goal
|
Goal
Szymon Wlodarczyk - 80'
Derensili Sanches Fernandes - 16'

CONTEXT

The match between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior is finished, with the full-time score ending 2-2. The teams were level at half-time, each having scored once, and neither side managed to break the deadlock after the interval despite several opportunities. Pre-match expectations positioned PEC Zwolle as the stronger side with a 42.7 percent likelihood of victory, ahead of 31.5 percent for an Excelsior win and 25.8 percent for the draw. The actual result marked a significant deviation for PEC Zwolle, who could only secure a point rather than the three that had been widely anticipated. This outcome did not align with the pre-match projection, though the efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations and no red cards altered the flow of play. Possession was almost perfectly balanced at 49 percent for the home side and 51 percent for the visitors, with no xG data available to provide further context on chance quality. Overall the draw reflected a competitive contest in which Excelsior performed above their forecasted level while PEC Zwolle fell short of theirs.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: PEC Zwolle showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Dieperink

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Ribbink

1st Assistant

F. Ozinga

2nd Assistant

C. Ruperti

4th Official

PEC Zwolle Henry van der Vegt
Henry van der Vegt
VS
Excelsior R. den Uil
R. den Uil
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
NAC Breda Rank: W
FC Groningen Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: D
Ajax Rank: D
FC Utrecht Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
NEC Nijmegen Rank: L
Heracles Almelo Rank: D
Feyenoord Rank: L
SC Heerenveen Rank: L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 4 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home PEC Zwolle
42.71%
Draw
25.8%
Away Excelsior
31.49%

Movement

Changes since opening
PEC Zwolle
+37.18%
Draw
-63.72%
Excelsior
+26.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
21.19
12.44
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
Power Score
21.19
12.44
League Position
13
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
PEC Zwolle — Opponent-weighted form score
Excelsior — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) PEC Zwolle Excelsior

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

PEC Zwolle

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Excelsior

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

PEC Zwolle ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Excelsior
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.18
35.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.98
34.18
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
PEC Zwolle -0.19 Efficiency Index
vs
Excelsior +0.19 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

PEC Zwolle ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Excelsior
Created Set-piece attacking threat
PEC Zwolle Excelsior
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
PEC Zwolle Excelsior
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
PEC Zwolle
vs
Excelsior
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
PEC Zwolle Excelsior
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
PEC Zwolle 0.43
Excelsior 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
PEC Zwolle Excelsior
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
PEC Zwolle 0.04
Excelsior 0.06
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PEC had peak pressure around 61'.
  • PEC started the game with stronger pressure.
PEC Pressure EXC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PEC reached the top pressure at 61' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

PEC Zwolle PEC Home
13 matches
Excelsior EXC Away
Match Record
8
Wins
1
4
Draws
4
1
Losses
8
Goals
28
Goals Scored
11
11
Goals Conceded
28
+17
Goal Difference
-17

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:03:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
T. de Graaff
Netherlands
16 T. de Graaff
O. Aertssen
Netherlands
3 O. Aertssen
S. Graves Jensen
Denmark
28 S. Graves Jensen
A. McNulty
Republic of Ireland
4 A. McNulty
S. Floranus
Curaçao
2 S. Floranus
R. Thomas
Substitution
New Zealand
30 R. Thomas
Z. Buurmeester
Netherlands
8 Z. Buurmeester
Y. Namli
Denmark
9 Y. Namli
T. Oosting
Netherlands
25 T. Oosting
O. Velanas
Substitution
Netherlands
18 O. Velanas
K. Kostons
Substitution
Netherlands
10 K. Kostons
Pitch
S. van Gassel
Netherlands
1 S. van Gassel
A. Zagre
France
12 A. Zagre
L. Schouten
Substitution
Netherlands
14 L. Schouten
C. Widell
Sweden
4 C. Widell
R. Meissen
Substitution
Netherlands
3 R. Meissen
I. Bronkhorst
Netherlands
2 I. Bronkhorst
G. de Regt
Netherlands
11 G. de Regt
L. Hartjes
Netherlands
20 L. Hartjes
I. Yegoian
Substitution
Georgia
23 I. Yegoian
D. Sanches Fernandes
Netherlands
30 D. Sanches Fernandes
N. Naujoks
Netherlands
10 N. Naujoks

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium :
MAC³PARK Stadion
Capacity :
14000
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marco Ribbink
Frans Ozinga
Clay Ruperti
Rob Dieperink

Statistics

Possession
PEC
49%
EXC
51%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 7
35 Dangerous attacks 47
49 Possession 51
5 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

21 Successful Headers 27
14 Dribble Attempts 20
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
18 Throwins 21
1 Assists 2
11 Goal Kicks 6
9 Goal Attempts 10
98 Ball Safe 87
7 Successful Dribbles 11
3 Substitutions 3

Attacking

114 Attacks 93
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

312 Successful Passes 323
11 Key Passes 8
68 Long Passes 81
76 Successful Passes Percentage 75
408 Passes 429
23 Successful Long Passes 38
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47

Defensive

16 Tackles 16
6 Interceptions 4
1 Saves 3

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 14
6 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Rob Dieperink

Starting XI ▼

16
Tom de Graaff
Tom de Graaff Goalkeeper
2
Sherel Floranus
Sherel Floranus Defender
3
Olivier Aertssen
Olivier Aertssen Defender
4
Anselmo García MacNulty
Anselmo García MacNulty Defender
28
Simon Graves
Simon Graves Defender
8
Zico Buurmeester
Zico Buurmeester Midfielder
9
Younes Namli
Younes Namli Midfielder
18
Odysseus Velanas
Odysseus Velanas Midfielder
6
Tristan Gooijer
Tristan Gooijer
Defender62'
25
Thijs Oosting
Thijs Oosting Midfielder
30
Ryan Thomas
Ryan Thomas Midfielder
22
Kaj de Rooij
Kaj de Rooij
Attacker62'
10
Koen Kostons
Koen Kostons Attacker
29
Thomas Buitink
Thomas Buitink
Attacker74'
Referee : Rob Dieperink

Starting XI ▼

1
Stijn van Gassel
Stijn van Gassel Goalkeeper
2
Ilias Bronkhorst
Ilias Bronkhorst Defender
3
Rick Meissen
Rick Meissen Defender
9
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Attacker79'
4
Casper Widell
Casper Widell Defender
12
Arthur Zagré
Arthur Zagré Defender
14
Lewis Schouten
Lewis Schouten Defender
7
Emil Hansson
Emil Hansson
Attacker62'
11
Gyan de Regt
Gyan de Regt Midfielder
20
Lennard Hartjes
Lennard Hartjes Midfielder
23
Irakli Yegoian
Irakli Yegoian Midfielder
29
Mike van Duinen
Mike van Duinen
Attacker79'
30
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Derensili Sanches Fernandes Midfielder
10
Noah Naujoks
Noah Naujoks Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
80'
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk
Header / 4th Goal
79'
Event
Mike van Duinen → Irakli Yegoian
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Szymon Wlodarczyk → Rick Meissen
6th Substitution
Event
Thomas Buitink → Koen Kostons
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Tristan Gooijer → Odysseus Velanas
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Kaj de Rooij → Ryan Thomas
3rd Substitution
62'
62'
Event
Emil Hansson → Lewis Schouten
2nd Substitution
Event
Odysseus Velanas
Header / 3rd Goal
60'
53'
Event
Irakli Yegoian
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
16'
Event
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Thijs Oosting
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Casper Widell from Excelsior had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box but it went to the left. Arthur Zagré provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Simon Graves from PEC Zwolle won a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Mike van Duinen of Excelsior.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 2-2 between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior.
90
Update Update
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Sherel Floranus of PEC Zwolle.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
89
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes high.
89
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Simon Graves from PEC Zwolle.
87
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior missed a left-footed shot from outside the box.
85
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Szymon Wlodarczyk from Excelsior.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Mike van Duinen of Excelsior.
84
Update Update
Offside called against PEC Zwolle. Sherel Floranus is offside.
84
Update Update
Zico Buurmeester of PEC Zwolle won a free kick in an attacking position.
81
Update Update
Simon Graves from PEC Zwolle won a free kick in defense.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Mike van Duinen of Excelsior.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Szymon Wlodarczyk scores for Excelsior with a header from the center of the box into the left corner. The match is now tied at 2-2, with an assist from Gyan de Regt's cross.
80
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Thomas Buitink of PEC Zwolle takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel of Excelsior, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist came from Younes Namli with a cross.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Mike van Duinen replaces Irakli Yegoian.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Szymon Wlodarczyk replaces Rick Meissen.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Thomas Buitink of PEC Zwolle.
77
Update Update
Casper Widell from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
76
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Noah Naujoks - Excelsior - shot with right foot from the centre of the box is high and wide to the right.
75
Corner Corner
Excelsior wins a corner after Tristan Gooijer concedes.
75
Attempt Attempt
Noah Naujoks' shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Gyan de Regt.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PEC Zwolle: Thomas Buitink replaces Koen Kostons.
73
Update Update
Fouled by Sherel Floranus of PEC Zwolle.
73
Update Update
Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Thijs Oosting from PEC Zwolle committed a foul.
68
Update Update
Arthur Zagré from Excelsior won a free kick on the left wing.
68
Update Update
Arthur Zagré from Excelsior won a free kick on the left wing.
67
Update Update
Fouled by Simon Graves of PEC Zwolle.
67
Corner Corner
Emil Hansson from Excelsior attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Tom de Graaff from PEC Zwolle saves it in the left corner. The assist was provided by Arthur Zagré.
66
Update Update
Gyan de Regt from Excelsior won a free kick in the attacking area.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after Casper Widell concedes.
65
Update Update
Zico Buurmeester of PEC Zwolle won a free kick on the left wing.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PEC Zwolle: Kaj de Rooij replaces Ryan Thomas.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for PEC Zwolle: Tristan Gooijer replaces Odysseus Velanas.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Excelsior: Emil Hansson replaces Lewis Schouten.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Odysseus Velanas scores for PEC Zwolle with a header from the center of the box. The score is now PEC Zwolle 2, Excelsior 1.
59
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance for PEC Zwolle. Koen Kostons took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it went just left of the goal. The assist came from Odysseus Velanas after a quick break.
58
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Zico Buurmeester from PEC Zwolle takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved.
56
Update Update
Foul committed by Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Excelsior.
56
Update Update
Odysseus Velanas from PEC Zwolle won a free kick in defense.
55
Attempt Attempt
Olivier Aertssen's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
54
Update Update
Simon Graves from PEC Zwolle misses a close-range header that goes just wide of the goal. The assist came from Younes Namli's cross.
53
Update Update
Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior commits a foul.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior receives a yellow card for a foul.
53
Update Update
Odysseus Velanas from PEC Zwolle won a free kick on the left wing.
52
Update Update
Arthur Zagré from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
52
Update Update
Olivier Aertssen of PEC Zwolle commits a foul.
51
Update Update
Odysseus Velanas of PEC Zwolle won a free kick in defense.
49
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Younes Namli from PEC Zwolle.
47
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Arthur Zagré - Excelsior - shot with left foot from a diffucult position on the left.
47
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Younes Namli of PEC Zwolle.
46
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after Casper Widell concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at PEC Zwolle 1, Excelsior 1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be no added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match tied at 1-1 between PEC Zwolle and Excelsior.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Arthur Zagré of Excelsior.
42
Update Update
Olivier Aertssen of PEC Zwolle won a free kick in an attacking position.
40
Corner Corner
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, just missing the top right corner. The assist came from Gyan de Regt, who provided a cross.
40
Attempt Attempt
Rick Meissen's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
40
Attempt Attempt
Lennard Hartjes' shot from the center of the box is blocked. Irakli Yegoian provided the assist.
40
Attempt Attempt
Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Excelsior has his left-footed shot from the center of the box blocked.
36
Update Update
Derensili Sanches Fernandes from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Thomas of PEC Zwolle.
33
Update Update
Offside called against Excelsior. Gyan de Regt is in an offside position.
32
Update Update
Odysseus Velanas from PEC Zwolle won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Excelsior.
31
Update Update
Foul committed by Ryan Thomas of PEC Zwolle.
31
Attempt Attempt
Ryan Thomas from PEC Zwolle has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
31
Update Update
Irakli Yegoian from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.
30
Attempt Attempt
Gyan de Regt from Excelsior takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a free kick, but it goes high over the goal.
29
Update Update
Fouled by Anselmo MacNulty of PEC Zwolle.
29
Update Update
Noah Naujoks from Excelsior won a free kick in an attacking position.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after Lewis Schouten concedes.
23
Update Update
Foul committed by Noah Naujoks of Excelsior.
23
Update Update
Anselmo MacNulty of PEC Zwolle won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Arthur Zagré from Excelsior won a free kick in defense.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Olivier Aertssen of PEC Zwolle.
21
Update Update
Younes Namli from PEC Zwolle won a free kick in an attacking position.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Gyan de Regt of Excelsior.
20
Attempt Attempt
Thijs Oosting's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Olivier Aertssen provided the assist.
20
Update Update
Younes Namli from PEC Zwolle was awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Derensili Sanches Fernandes of Excelsior.
19
Update Update
Ryan Thomas from PEC Zwolle won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Offside called against PEC Zwolle. Koen Kostons is in an offside position.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Excelsior equalizes at 1-1 with Derensili Sanches Fernandes scoring from close range into the right corner, assisted by Casper Widell.
16
Attempt Attempt
Casper Widell's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
14
Update Update
Koen Kostons of PEC Zwolle is flagged for offside.
13
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after Casper Widell concedes.
12
Corner Corner
Excelsior is awarded a corner after Simon Graves concedes it.
12
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Casper Widell from Excelsior took a right-footed shot from outside the box that went wide to the left after a corner.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Schouten of Excelsior.
6
Update Update
Koen Kostons from PEC Zwolle won a free kick on the right wing.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! PEC Zwolle leads 1-0 after Thijs Oosting scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
2
Attempt Attempt
Simon Graves' left-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box is blocked. The assist was provided by Koen Kostons.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to PEC Zwolle after Stijn van Gassel concedes.
1
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Koen Kostons of PEC Zwolle shot with his left foot from a few meters but missed to the left. The assist came from Odysseus Velanas, who provided a cross after a corner.
1
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Odysseus Velanas from PEC Zwolle has a right-footed shot from the center of the box, which is saved by goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel in the center of the goal. The assist came from Younes Namli with a through ball.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: PEC Zwolle exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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