Parma vs Sassuolo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Ennio Tardini Sun, 24 May - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Parma PRM
1 Winner 0
Sassuolo SAS
Full Time Sun, 24 May 1:00 PM
Round 38 Regular Season
Mateo Pellegrino - 80'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Parma secured a 1-0 victory against Sassuolo after a goalless first half. The home side held 52 percent possession compared to the visitors 48 percent. No red cards were shown to either team across the full duration of the match. Parma entered as the stronger side and claimed the win with the only goal arriving after the interval. Pre-match projections indicated a significant deviation of 69.8 percent centered on Parma. Efficiency remained in line with established patterns for the contest. Expected goals information was unavailable for review. The final outcome did not align with market projections. The match proceeded without major disruptions beyond the decisive second-half strike that separated the sides.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Parma recorded a significant 69.8 percent structural deviation as the designated stronger team.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match patterns throughout the game.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be assessed because data was unavailable.
  • Market alignment: The match result was not aligned with market projections.
  • xG expectations: Expected goals expectations could not be evaluated due to missing metrics.
  • Event impact: The solitary second-half goal served as the decisive event in the 1-0 result.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion to team structures or dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Turrini

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Imperiale

1st Assistant

Italy

M. Trinchieri

2nd Assistant

Italy

L. Marinelli

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie A Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.79
Yellow cards / match 3.5
Red cards / match 0.21
Penalties / match 0.2
Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
VS
Sassuolo F. Grosso
F. Grosso
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.27
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Como Rank: 84 L
Roma Rank: 85 L
Inter Rank: 91 L
Pisa Rank: 62 W
Udinese Rank: 76 W
Napoli Rank: 86 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lecce Rank: 68 L
Torino Rank: 74 L
AC Milan Rank: 85 W
Fiorentina Rank: 79 D
Como Rank: 85 W
Genoa Rank: 74 L
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Parma
30.19%
Draw
28.8%
Away Sassuolo
41.01%

Movement

Changes since opening
Parma
-65.04%
Draw
+24.22%
Sassuolo
+40.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.8
62.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Parma
Sassuolo
Power Score
72.8
62.09
League Position
13
11
Global Rank
150
123

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Sassuolo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Parma Sassuolo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Parma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sassuolo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Parma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sassuolo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.00
15.94
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.94
35.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Parma +1.92 Efficiency Index
vs
Sassuolo -1.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Parma
Sassuolo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Parma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sassuolo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Parma Sassuolo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Parma Sassuolo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Parma
Sassuolo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Parma
vs
Sassuolo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Parma Sassuolo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Parma 0.36
Sassuolo 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Parma Sassuolo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Parma 0.00
Sassuolo 0.02
Parma
Sassuolo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PRM had peak pressure around 83'.
  • PRM started the game with stronger pressure.
PRM Pressure SAS Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PRM reached the top pressure at 83' (89.78).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Parma PRM Home
13 matches
Sassuolo SAS Away
Match Record
5
Wins
3
5
Draws
5
3
Losses
5
Goals
16
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
16
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-25T00:02:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
E. Corvi
Italy
40 E. Corvi
A. Circati
Australia
39 (C) A. Circati
M. Troilo
Argentina
37 M. Troilo
L. Valenti
Substitution
Argentina
5 L. Valenti
S. Britschgi
Substitution
27 S. Britschgi
C. Ordoñez
Argentina
24 C. Ordoñez
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
Italy
41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
M. Keita
Substitution
Belgium
16 M. Keita
E. Valeri
Substitution
Italy
14 E. Valeri
M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
Argentina
9 M. Pellegrino Casalanguila
D. Mikołajewski
Substitution
Poland
76 D. Mikołajewski
Pitch
S. Turati
Substitution
Italy
13 S. Turati
U. Garcia Lopes
Switzerland
23 U. Garcia Lopes
J. Idzes
Substitution
Netherlands
21 J. Idzes
T. Macchioni
31 T. Macchioni
W. Coulibaly
France
25 W. Coulibaly
I. Koné
Substitution
Canada
90 I. Koné
L. Lipani
Substitution
Italy
35 L. Lipani
K. Thorstvedt
Norway
42 K. Thorstvedt
A. Lauriente
Substitution
France
45 A. Lauriente
A. Pinamonti
Italy
99 A. Pinamonti
D. Berardi
Italy
10 (C) D. Berardi

General Information

Date & Time :
May 24, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 38 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Capacity :
27906
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Niccolò Turrini
Davide Imperiale
Marco Trinchieri
Livio Marinelli

Statistics

Possession
PRM
51%
SAS
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
11 Shots 4
44 Dangerous attacks 33
52 Possession 48
1 Corners 1
14 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
12 Successful Headers 11
21 Throwins 13
10 Goal Kicks 13
13 Dribble Attempts 9
8 Successful Dribbles 6
63 Ball Safe 65
0 Hit Woodwork 1
14 Goal Attempts 5
2 Injuries 2
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0

Attacking

83 Attacks 93
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

401 Passes 381
83 Successful Passes Percentage 84
40 Long Passes 56
334 Successful Passes 319
10 Key Passes 3
21 Successful Long Passes 29
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 52

Defensive

12 Tackles 11
5 Interceptions 10
45 Duels Won 38
1 Saves 2

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 7
8 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

10 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

40
Edoardo Corvi
Edoardo Corvi Goalkeeper
6.82
5
Lautaro Valenti
Lautaro Valenti Defender
6.57
3
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Abdoulaye Ndiaye
Defender61'
6.54
37
Mariano Troilo
Mariano Troilo Defender
7.17
39
Alessandro Circati
Alessandro Circati (C) Defender
7.07
14
Emanuele Valeri
Emanuele Valeri Midfielder
7.13
29
Franco Carboni
Franco Carboni
Defender76'
6.57
16
Mandela Keita
Mandela Keita Midfielder
6.9
22
Oliver Sørensen
Oliver Sørensen
Midfielder72'
6.69
24
Christian Ordóñez
Christian Ordóñez Midfielder
7.33
27
Sascha Britschgi
Sascha Britschgi Midfielder
6.3
11
Pontus Almqvist
Pontus Almqvist
Attacker72'
7.18
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Midfielder
7.36
9
Mateo Pellegrino
Mateo Pellegrino Attacker
7.91
76
Daniel Mikolajewski
Daniel Mikolajewski Attacker
6.11
75
Alessandro Cardinali
Alessandro Cardinali
Attacker46'
6.42
Referee : Niccolò Turrini

Starting XI ▼

13
Stefano Turati
Stefano Turati Goalkeeper
6.55
16
Gioele Zacchi
Gioele Zacchi
Goalkeeper83'
6.65
21
Jay Idzes
Jay Idzes Defender
6.69
66
Pedro Felipe
Pedro Felipe
Defender54'
6.33
23
Ulisses Garcia
Ulisses Garcia Defender
6.56
25
Woyo Coulibaly
Woyo Coulibaly Defender
6.61
31
Tommaso Macchioni
Tommaso Macchioni Defender
6.35
35
Luca Lipani
Luca Lipani Midfielder
7.3
7
Cristian Volpato
Cristian Volpato
Midfielder83'
6.53
42
Kristian Thorstvedt
Kristian Thorstvedt Midfielder
6.39
90
Ismaël Koné
Ismaël Koné Midfielder
7.02
18
Nemanja Matic
Nemanja Matic
Midfielder65'
6.5
10
Domenico Berardi
Domenico Berardi (C) Attacker
6.91
45
Armand Laurienté
Armand Laurienté Attacker
6.51
8
M'Bala Nzola
M'Bala Nzola
Attacker66'
6.33
99
Andrea Pinamonti
Andrea Pinamonti Attacker
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
83'
Event
Gioele Zacchi → Stefano Turati
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Cristian Volpato → Luca Lipani
9th Substitution
Event
Mateo Pellegrino
Header / 1st Goal
80'
Event
Franco Carboni → Emanuele Valeri
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Oliver Sørensen → Mandela Keita
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Pontus Almqvist → Sascha Britschgi
6th Substitution
72'
66'
Event
M'Bala Nzola → Armand Laurienté
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Nemanja Matic → Ismaël Koné
4th Substitution
Event
Abdoulaye Ndiaye → Lautaro Valenti
3rd Substitution
61'
54'
Event
Pedro Felipe → Jay Idzes
2nd Substitution
Event
Alessandro Cardinali → Daniel Mikolajewski
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Lautaro Valenti
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
30'
21'
Event
Tommaso Macchioni
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
18'
Event
Kristian Thorstvedt
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Sascha Britschgi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
7'

Match Commentary

86
Attempt Attempt
Domenico Berardi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
85
Attempt Attempt
Woyo Coulibaly's left-footed shot is blocked.
83
Update Update
Cristian Volpato comes on for Luca Lipani.
83
Update Update
Gioele Zacchi replaces Stefano Turati.
82
Attempt Attempt
Pontus Almqvist's left-footed shot is blocked.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila scores to make it 1-0.
80
Update Update
Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila scores with a header.
77
Attempt Attempt
Pontus Almqvist takes a left-footed shot but misses.
76
Update Update
Franco Carboni comes on for Emanuele Valeri.
74
Attempt Attempt
Oliver Sorensen takes a left-footed shot but misses.
73
Update Update
Pontus Almqvist comes on for Sascha Britschgi.
72
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Sorensen is substituted for Mandela Keita.
66
Update Update
MBala Nzola comes on for Armand Lauriente.
65
Update Update
Nemanja Matic comes on for Ismael Kone.
62
Attempt Attempt
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
Abdoulaye Ndiaye comes on for Lautaro Valenti.
54
Update Update
Pedro Felipe comes on for Jay Idzes.
52
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Valeri's left-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Valeri misses with a left-footed shot.
48
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Alessandro Cardinali replaces Daniel Mikolajewski.
39
Attempt Attempt
Mandela Keita takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Attempt Attempt
Ismael Kone takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
36
Attempt Attempt
Christian Ordonez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
34
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila attempts a header but misses the shot.
33
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Macchioni takes a left-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Domenico Berardi's left-footed shot is saved.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lautaro Valenti receives a yellow card.
22
Attempt Attempt
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tommaso Macchioni receives a yellow card.
19
Attempt Attempt
Lautaro Valenti attempts a header but misses the shot.
18
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kristian Thorstvedt receives a yellow card.
10
Attempt Attempt
Emanuele Valeri takes a left-footed shot but misses.
8
Attempt Attempt
Daniel Mikolajewski takes a left-footed shot but misses.
7
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sascha Britschgi receives a yellow card.
6
Attempt Attempt
Mateo Pellegrino Casalanguila takes a left-footed shot but misses.
3
Attempt Attempt
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia takes a left-footed shot but misses.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Niccolo Turrini.

CONCLUSION

The narrow 1-0 scoreline reflected a controlled yet low-output performance from Parma after the even halftime period. Possession edges proved marginal and did not translate into high-volume scoring. With no dismissals recorded the contest maintained its intended tactical shape from start to finish. The significant deviation measure highlighted Parma exceeding baseline expectations while efficiency metrics tracked consistently. Lack of expected goals data limited deeper process evaluation yet the outcome stood independent of those figures. Market misalignment underscored the result diverging from prior indicators. Overall the single post-interval goal encapsulated the minimal margin that decided the points in a match defined by defensive organization rather than open play.

Parma vs Sassuolo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie A, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.