Parma vs Roma Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Serie A
Roma
ROM
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Parma hosted Roma in a competitive Serie A match that concluded with a 2-3 victory for the visitors. Roma asserted dominance early, leading 1-0 at halftime with 66% possession compared to Parma's 34%. The second half saw heightened drama as Parma received a red card, reducing them to ten men and altering the game's structure. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Parma mounted a comeback to level the score momentarily before Roma regained the lead and held on for the win. This outcome aligned with Roma being the stronger team on paper. The red card introduced significant distortions, particularly in the latter stages, where defensive resilience and counter-attacking efficiency came into play. Parma's efforts highlighted resilience, but Roma's control in key metrics proved decisive in securing the three points.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: The match result showed a significant 35.9% structural deviation in favor of Roma.
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Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match assessments.
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xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
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Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
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xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for evaluation.
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Event impact: Parma's red card created major event impact by reducing them to ten players.
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Red card distortion: Red card distortion was a primary second-half adjustment factor.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
D. Chiffi
Other match officials
K. Bahri
1st Assistant
V. Vecchi
2nd Assistant
F. Maresca
4th Official
League averages
Serie A Based on last 100 matches
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Parma
Roma
Movement
Changes since opening
Parma
Roma
Team Power Ranking
i
72.33
85.67
Parma
Roma
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Parma
Roma
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Parma
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency









Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)








Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
















Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.




























PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- ROM had peak pressure around 97'.
- PRM started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 30 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
















Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:05:12+00:00
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General Information
Next Match


Parma
vs
Como
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia


Roma
vs
Lazio
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Venue: Stadio Olimpico
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup


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Manager ▼


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Events
CONCLUSION
Parma vs Roma preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Author
Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.

Match Commentary