Parma vs Napoli Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Ennio Tardini Sun, 12 Apr - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Parma PRM
1 – 1
Napoli NAP
Full Time Sun, 12 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Gabriel Strefezza - 1'
Goal
|
Goal
Scott McTominay - 60'

CONTEXT

The match between Parma and Napoli is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 0-1 to the visitors. Napoli claimed the three points as the stronger side, in what proved a significant deviation in their favor relative to pre-match expectations. Though Napoli had entered as clear favorites, the outcome ultimately aligned with the pre-match projection while following an in-line efficiency shift across the contest. Napoli controlled the ball for long periods, recording 74 percent possession to Parma’s 26. No xG data was available to assess underlying value, yet the result stayed consistent with the anticipated balance of play. Neither team received a red card, and no major disciplinary events altered the flow. In the end, Napoli converted their territorial dominance into a narrow but deserved victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Napoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Di Bello

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Collu

4th Official

L. Rossi

1st Assistant

V. Mastrodonato

2nd Assistant

Parma C. Antón Cuesta
C. Antón Cuesta
VS
Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lazio Rank: D
Cremonese Rank: L
Torino Rank: L
Fiorentina Rank: D
Cagliari Rank: D
AC Milan Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
AC Milan Rank: W
Cagliari Rank: W
Lecce Rank: W
Torino Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Atalanta Rank: L
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 4 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Parma
13.59%
Draw
25.35%
Away Napoli
61.07%

Movement

Changes since opening
Parma
+10.83%
Draw
-65.65%
Napoli
+54.82%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
20.98
34.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Parma
Napoli
Power Score
20.98
34.4
League Position
14
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Parma — Opponent-weighted form score
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Parma Napoli

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Parma

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Napoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Parma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Napoli
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.81
35.47
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
35.47
14.81
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Parma -2.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Napoli +2.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Parma
Napoli
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Parma ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Napoli
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Parma Napoli
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Parma Napoli
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Parma
Napoli
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Parma
vs
Napoli
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Parma Napoli
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Parma 0.18
Napoli 0.16
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Parma Napoli
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Parma 0.01
Napoli 0.06
Parma
Napoli
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NAP had peak pressure around 57'.
  • NAP started the game with stronger pressure.
PRM Pressure NAP Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NAP reached the top pressure at 57' (98.82).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Parma PRM Home
25 matches
Napoli NAP Away
Match Record
7
Wins
14
4
Draws
4
14
Losses
7
Goals
23
Goals Scored
40
40
Goals Conceded
23
-17
Goal Difference
+17

Data last updated: 2026-04-13T00:04:07+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
Z. Suzuki
Japan
31 Z. Suzuki
A. Circati
Australia
39 A. Circati
M. Troilo
Argentina
37 M. Troilo
L. Valenti
Argentina
5 L. Valenti
E. Del Prato
Italy
15 E. Del Prato
A. Bernabe Garcia
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Bernabe Garcia
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
Substitution
Italy
41 H. Nicolussi Caviglia
M. Keita
Belgium
16 M. Keita
E. Valeri
Italy
14 E. Valeri
N. Elphege
Substitution
France
23 N. Elphege
G. Strefezza Rebelato
Substitution
Brazil
7 G. Strefezza Rebelato
Pitch
V. Milinković Savić
Serbia
32 V. Milinković Savić
M. Olivera Miramontes
Uruguay
17 M. Olivera Miramontes
A. Buongiorno
Italy
4 A. Buongiorno
J. Nunes Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
5 J. Nunes Jesus
L. Spinazzola
Italy
37 L. Spinazzola
S. Lobotka
Slovakia
68 S. Lobotka
A. Zambo Anguissa
Substitution
Cameroon
99 A. Zambo Anguissa
M. Politano
Substitution
Italy
21 M. Politano
S. McTominay
Scotland
8 S. McTominay
K. De Bruyne
Substitution
Belgium
11 K. De Bruyne
R. Højlund
Substitution
Denmark
19 R. Højlund

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 12, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Ennio Tardini
Capacity :
27906
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giuseppe Collu
Marco Di Bello
Luigi Rossi
Vito Mastrodonato

Statistics

Possession
PRM
28%
NAP
72%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 20
17 Dangerous attacks 125
26 Possession 74
3 Corners 7
8 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

2 Successful Dribbles 7
11 Goal Kicks 3
9 Successful Headers 17
9 Dribble Attempts 14
22 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
13 Throwins 17
1 Assists 1
1 Injuries 1
86 Ball Safe 70
2 Goal Attempts 10
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

0 Big Chances Missed 1
48 Attacks 145

Possession

72 Successful Passes Percentage 92
53 Long Passes 29
178 Successful Passes 656
3 Key Passes 17
246 Passes 715
28 Successful Long Passes Percentage 72
15 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

7 Interceptions 7
15 Tackles 14
4 Saves 1

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 37
1 Accurate Crosses 11

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
4 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Marco Di Bello

Starting XI ▼

31
Zion Suzuki
Zion Suzuki Goalkeeper
5
Lautaro Valenti
Lautaro Valenti Defender
37
Mariano Troilo
Mariano Troilo Defender
39
Alessandro Circati
Alessandro Circati Defender
10
Adrián Bernabé
Adrián Bernabé Midfielder
24
Christian Ordóñez
Christian Ordóñez
Midfielder67'
14
Emanuele Valeri
Emanuele Valeri Midfielder
15
Enrico Delprato
Enrico Delprato Midfielder
16
Mandela Keita
Mandela Keita Midfielder
41
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia Midfielder
8
Nahuel Estévez
Nahuel Estévez
Midfielder66'
7
Gabriel Strefezza
Gabriel Strefezza Attacker
76
Daniel Mikolajewski
Daniel Mikolajewski
Attacker72'
23
Nesta Elphege
Nesta Elphege Attacker
22
Oliver Sørensen
Oliver Sørensen
Midfielder59'
Referee : Marco Di Bello

Starting XI ▼

32
Vanja Milinković-Savić
Vanja Milinković-Savić Goalkeeper
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender
5
Juan Jesus
Juan Jesus Defender
31
Sam Beukema
Sam Beukema
Defender46'
17
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera Defender
21
Matteo Politano
Matteo Politano Midfielder
3
Miguel Gutiérrez
Miguel Gutiérrez
Defender79'
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
Leonardo Spinazzola Midfielder
68
Stanislav Lobotka
Stanislav Lobotka Midfielder
99
Frank Anguissa
Frank Anguissa Midfielder
27
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos
Attacker56'
8
Scott McTominay
Scott McTominay Attacker
11
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne Attacker
20
Eljif Elmas
Eljif Elmas
Midfielder78'
19
Rasmus Højlund
Rasmus Højlund Attacker
23
Giovane
Giovane
Attacker66'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alessandro Circati
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
83'
79'
Event
Miguel Gutiérrez → Matteo Politano 
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Eljif Elmas → Kevin De Bruyne 
8th Substitution
Event
Daniel Mikolajewski → Gabriel Strefezza
7th Substitution
72'
Event
Christian Ordóñez → Adrián Bernabé
6th Substitution
67'
Event
Nahuel Estévez → Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
4th Substitution
66'
66'
Event
Giovane → Rasmus Højlund
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Scott McTominay
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Oliver Sørensen → Nesta Elphege
3rd Substitution
59'
56'
Event
Alisson Santos → Frank Anguissa 
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Sam Beukema → Juan Jesus
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriel Strefezza
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
1'

Match Commentary

90
Corner Corner
Napoli wins a corner after Mariano Troilo concedes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Parma and Napoli.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after a concession by Zion Suzuki.
90
Update Update
Miguel Gutiérrez from Napoli misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high.
88
Update Update
Stanislav Lobotka from Napoli won a free kick in defense.
88
Update Update
Foul committed by Daniel Mikolajewski of Parma.
87
Attempt Attempt
Eljif Elmas from Napoli has his left-footed shot from the left side of the box blocked. The assist was provided by Leonardo Spinazzola.
87
Attempt Attempt
Alisson Santos from Napoli has a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it is blocked.
87
Corner Corner
Napoli is awarded a corner after Mariano Troilo concedes.
84
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Buongiorno of Napoli.
84
Attempt Attempt
Eljif Elmas from Napoli missed a chance, heading the ball high and wide to the right from the center of the box. The assist came from Miguel Gutiérrez, who provided the cross.
84
Update Update
Daniel Mikolajewski from Parma won a free kick in an attacking position.
83
Update Update
Alessandro Circati from Parma commits a foul.
83
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Eljif Elmas from Napoli headed the ball from the center of the box.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alessandro Circati of Parma receives a yellow card for a foul.
82
Update Update
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic from Napoli won a free kick in defense.
81
Corner Corner
Parma wins a corner after Vanja Milinkovic-Savic concedes.
80
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Mandela Keita from Parma takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Vanja Milinkovic-Savic from Napoli. The assist came from Nahuel Estévez.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Miguel Gutiérrez replaces Matteo Politano.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Eljif Elmas replaces Kevin De Bruyne.
78
Attempt Attempt
Alisson Santos from Napoli had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box, but it went just to the left. Kevin De Bruyne provided the assist.
77
Attempt Attempt
Christian Ordóñez's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Oliver Sørensen.
76
Corner Corner
Parma earns a corner after Mathías Olivera concedes.
75
Corner Corner
Parma wins a corner after Mathías Olivera concedes.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Lautaro Valenti concedes.
74
Update Update
Christian Ordóñez from Parma won a free kick in defense.
74
Update Update
Foul committed by Stanislav Lobotka of Napoli.
73
Update Update
Offside called against Parma. Daniel Mikolajewski is in an offside position.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Daniel Mikolajewski replaces Gabriel Strefezza due to injury.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Daniel Mikolajewski replaces Gabriel Strefezza due to injury.
71
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Gabriel Strefezza of Parma.
71
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza from Parma won a free kick in defense.
71
Update Update
Gabriel Strefezza from Parma won a free kick in defense.
68
Corner Corner
Napoli wins a corner after Christian Ordóñez concedes.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Christian Ordóñez replaces Adrián Bernabé.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Parma: Nahuel Estévez replaces Hans Nicolussi Caviglia.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Giovane replaces Rasmus Højlund.
65
Corner Corner
Alisson Santos from Napoli attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Zion Suzuki from Parma saves it in the left corner. The assist comes from Stanislav Lobotka.
60
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! The match is now 1-1 as Scott McTominay scores for Napoli with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution - Parma. Oliver Sørensen for Nesta Elphege.
57
Attempt Attempt
Alisson Santos from Napoli missed a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box, assisted by Mathías Olivera.
56
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Alisson Santos replaces Frank Anguissa.
53
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Politano from Napoli had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the right side of the box, but his shot went high and wide to the left.
51
Attempt Attempt
Matteo Politano from Napoli misses a chance with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box.
50
Corner Corner
Napoli is awarded a corner after Mariano Troilo concedes.
50
Corner Corner
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli misses a chance with a header from inside the six-yard box, sending it high and wide to the left. The assist came from Kevin De Bruyne, who delivered a cross after a corner.
48
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Højlund's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Frank Anguissa.
46
Update Update
Mandela Keita of Parma won a free kick in defense.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Frank Anguissa of Napoli.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Parma leading Napoli 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rasmus Højlund's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at Parma 1, Napoli 0.
44
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Mariano Troilo concedes.
44
Update Update
Mathías Olivera's header from inside the six-yard box is blocked on the left side after a cross from Kevin De Bruyne.
44
Attempt Attempt
Scott McTominay's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Leonardo Spinazzola provided the assist.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Scott McTominay against Napoli.
41
Update Update
Mariano Troilo of Parma won a free kick in defense.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Frank Anguissa of Napoli.
37
Update Update
Offside called against Napoli. Rasmus Højlund is offside.
37
Update Update
Mandela Keita from Parma won a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Alessandro Buongiorno of Napoli.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Lautaro Valenti concedes.
29
Update Update
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia from Parma won a free kick in defense.
24
Update Update
Alessandro Circati from Parma won a free kick in an attacking position.
24
Update Update
Fouled by Nesta Elphege of Parma.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Kevin De Bruyne against Napoli.
24
Update Update
Fouled by Nesta Elphege of Parma.
21
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Kevin De Bruyne from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Zion Suzuki from Parma. The assist comes from Leonardo Spinazzola.
19
Update Update
Matteo Politano from Napoli won a free kick on the right wing.
18
Update Update
Emanuele Valeri from Parma commits a foul.
18
Update Update
Foul committed by Mathías Olivera of Napoli.
14
Update Update
Adrián Bernabé from Parma won a free kick in defense.
14
Update Update
Offside called against Napoli. Kevin De Bruyne is offside.
13
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Leonardo Spinazzola from Napoli took a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
8
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nesta Elphege from Parma.
6
Attempt Attempt
Scott McTominay's shot for Napoli from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Stanislav Lobotka.
3
Update Update
Offside called against Parma. Nesta Elphege is in an offside position.
1
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Parma leads Napoli 1-0. Gabriel Strefezza scores for Parma with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the right corner, assisted by Nesta Elphege's header after a fast break.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Napoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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