Paris vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Jean Bouin Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Paris PFC
2 Winner 1
Paris Saint Germain PSG
Full Time Sun, 17 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Alimami Gory - 90+4', 76'
Goal
|
Goal

CONTEXT

Paris achieved a remarkable 2-1 win against Paris Saint Germain, marking a significant upset in the fixture. The match began with a cautious approach from both sides, resulting in a goalless halftime score. Paris Saint Germain dominated possession with 63 percent but struggled to convert their advantage into goals. In contrast, Paris made the most of their opportunities, netting two goals after the break. This victory came despite Paris Saint Germain being regarded as the stronger team prior to the encounter. The game proceeded without any red cards, allowing for a full complement of players on the pitch for the entire duration. Second half adjustments by the home team proved effective in turning the tide. Overall, the result underscored the unpredictable nature of the sport where possession does not always dictate the outcome. The final whistle confirmed Paris as the winners with a scoreline of 2-1.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Paris exhibited significant structural deviation by defeating the stronger Paris Saint Germain side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with the observed second half performance adjustments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment was not possible due to unavailable expected goals figures.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment proved false as the result contradicted pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated given the absence of supporting data.
  • Event impact: Event impact centered on second half goals that secured the 2-1 home victory.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with zero dismissals recorded for either team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Paradis

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Reyes

1st Assistant

France

N. Durand

2nd Assistant

France

A. Souifi

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.86
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
VS
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.33
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Brest Rank: 74 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 L
Metz Rank: 61 W
Monaco Rank: 79 W
Lorient Rank: 75 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 83 W
Brest Rank: 73 W
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Nantes Rank: 66 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 82 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris
4.07%
Draw
90.99%
Away Paris Saint Germain
4.93%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paris
+0.46%
Draw
+0.85%
Paris Saint Germain
-1.32%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.5
95.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris
Paris Saint Germain
Power Score
60.5
95.23
League Position
11
1
Global Rank
148
5

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris — Opponent-weighted form score
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Paris Saint Germain

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Paris Saint Germain
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Paris Saint Germain
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris
Paris Saint Germain
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paris
vs
Paris Saint Germain
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris Paris Saint Germain
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paris 0.00
Paris Saint Germain 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris Paris Saint Germain
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paris 0.00
Paris Saint Germain 0.00
Paris
Paris Saint Germain
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PFC had peak pressure around 79'.
  • PFC started the game with stronger pressure.
PFC Pressure PSG Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PFC reached the top pressure at 79' (79.15).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris PFC Home
1 matches
Paris Saint Germain PSG Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T18:45:36+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
K. Trapp
Germany
35 K. Trapp
A. Camara
France
17 A. Camara
S. Chergui
France
31 S. Chergui
D. Coppola
Italy
42 D. Coppola
Otavio Ataide
Substitution
Brazil
6 Otavio Ataide
N. Ikoné
Substitution
France
93 N. Ikoné
R. Matondo
Substitution
23 R. Matondo
P. Lees Melou
France
33 P. Lees Melou
M. Simon
Substitution
Nigeria
27 M. Simon
M. Munetsi
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 M. Munetsi
W. Geubbels
Substitution
France
9 W. Geubbels
Pitch
M. Safonov
Russia
39 M. Safonov
D. Lucea
Substitution
54 D. Lucea
M. Aoás Corrêa
Brazil
5 M. Aoás Corrêa
I. Zabarnyi
Ukraine
6 I. Zabarnyi
W. Zaire Emery
Substitution
France
33 W. Zaire Emery
F. Ruiz Peña
Spain
8 F. Ruiz Peña
L. Lopes Beraldo
Brazil
4 L. Lopes Beraldo
V. Machado Ferreira
Substitution
Portugal
17 V. Machado Ferreira
K. Kvaratskhelia
Substitution
Georgia
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
O. Dembélé
Substitution
France
10 O. Dembélé
B. Barcola
Substitution
France
29 B. Barcola

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Jean Bouin
Capacity :
15097
Attendance :
19237
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Guillaume Paradis
Ludovic Reyes
Nicolas Durand
Azzedine Souifi

Statistics

Possession
PFC
42%
PSG
58%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
17 Shots 9
35 Dangerous attacks 40
37 Possession 63
3 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 8
9 Successful Headers 11
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 32
19 Throwins 12
12 Dribble Attempts 19
4 Successful Dribbles 6
6 Substitutions 6
83 Ball Safe 94
11 Goal Attempts 6
2 Assists 1

Attacking

105 Attacks 100
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

337 Successful Passes 614
50 Long Passes 68
30 Successful Long Passes 46
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 68
85 Successful Passes Percentage 90
397 Passes 680
14 Key Passes 7

Defensive

1 Saves 7
24 Tackles 19
9 Interceptions 12
46 Duels Won 41

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 1
13 Total Crosses 10

Discipline

7 Offsides 2
8 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

35
Kevin Trapp
Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper
6.82
6
Otávio
Otávio Defender
6.87
14
Hamari Traoré
Hamari Traoré
Defender84'
6.69
17
Adama Camara
Adama Camara Defender
6.77
31
Samir Chergui
Samir Chergui Defender
6.7
42
Diego Coppola
Diego Coppola Defender
6.91
23
Rudy Matondo
Rudy Matondo Midfielder
6.78
4
Vincent Marchetti
Vincent Marchetti
Midfielder77'
6.72
27
Moses Simon
Moses Simon Midfielder
6.79
21
Maxime Lopez
Maxime Lopez
Midfielder67'
6.94
33
Pierre Lees-Melou
Pierre Lees-Melou Midfielder
6.9
93
Jonathan Ikoné
Jonathan Ikoné Midfielder
6.81
7
Alimami Gory
Alimami Gory
Attacker67'
2
6.6
9
Willem Geubbels
Willem Geubbels Attacker
6.69
24
Luca Koleosho
Luca Koleosho
Attacker68'
6.8
18
Marshall Munetsi
Marshall Munetsi Attacker
6.76
10
Ilan Kebbal
Ilan Kebbal
Midfielder67'
7.39
Referee : Guillaume Paradis

Starting XI ▼

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
6.95
5
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Defender
6.98
6
Ilya Zabarnyi
Ilya Zabarnyi Defender
6.96
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Warren Zaïre-Emery Defender
7.1
19
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee
Midfielder58'
7.19
54
Dimitri Lucea
Dimitri Lucea Defender
6.48
27
Pedro Fernández
Pedro Fernández
Midfielder46'
6.84
4
Lucas Beraldo
Lucas Beraldo Midfielder
7.17
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz Midfielder
7.04
17
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
7.53
87
João Neves
João Neves
Midfielder68'
7.15
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
7.3
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu
Midfielder58'
7.09
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
7.6
9
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos
Attacker27'
6.79
29
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Attacker
7.1
49
Ibrahim Mbaye
Ibrahim Mbaye
Attacker58'
6.84

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alimami Gory
2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Alimami Gory
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
90+4'
Event
Maxime Lopez
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Hamari Traoré → Otávio
12th Substitution
84'
Event
Vincent Marchetti → Rudy Matondo
11th Substitution
77'
Event
Alimami Gory
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
76'
Event
Luca Koleosho → Willem Geubbels
9th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
João Neves → Vitinha
10th Substitution
Event
Maxime Lopez → Moses Simon
8th Substitution
67'
Event
Ilan Kebbal → Marshall Munetsi
7th Substitution
67'
Event
Alimami Gory → Jonathan Ikoné
6th Substitution
67'
58'
Event
Senny Mayulu → Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
4th Substitution
58'
Event
Kang-in Lee → Warren Zaïre-Emery
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
Ibrahim Mbaye → Bradley Barcola
5th Substitution
50'
Event
Bradley Barcola
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
46'
Event
Pedro Fernández → Dimitri Lucea
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
27'
Event
Gonçalo Ramos → Ousmane Dembélé
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Ruiz Pena takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maxime Baila Lopez receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Marcos Aoas Correa's header is blocked by Marquinhos.
90
Attempt Attempt
Alimani Gory scores with a right-footed shot.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alimani Gory receives a yellow card.
85
Attempt Attempt
Ibrahim Mbaye takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
84
Update Update
Vincent Marchetti replaces Rudy Matondo.
83
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Matias Ramos takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
83
Attempt Attempt
Joao Neves takes a right-footed shot but misses.
83
Attempt Attempt
Luca Koleosho's right-footed shot is blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
Maxime Baila Lopez takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
78
Attempt Attempt
Ilan Kebbal's left-footed shot is saved.
77
Update Update
Hamari Traore comes on for Otavio Ataide da Silva.
76
Attempt Attempt
Alimani Gory scores with a right-footed shot.
76
Attempt Attempt
Alimani Gory takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
73
Attempt Attempt
Alimani Gory takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
68
Update Update
Luca Koleosho comes on for Willem Geubbels.
68
Update Update
Joao Neves replaces Vitor Machado Ferreira.
67
Update Update
Maxime Baila Lopez comes on for Moses Simon.
67
Update Update
Alimani Gory is on, and Nanitamo Jonathan Ikone is off.
67
Update Update
Ilan Kebbal comes on for Marshall Munetsi.
58
Attempt Attempt
Nanitamo Jonathan Ikone takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Update Update
Senny Mayulu replaces Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
58
Update Update
Lee Kang In is on, and Warren Zaire-Emery is off.
50
Attempt Attempt
Bradley Barcola scores with a right-footed shot.
46
Update Update
Pedro Fernandez comes on for Dimitri Lucea.
40
Attempt Attempt
Marshall Munetsi takes a left-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Nanitamo Jonathan Ikone takes a left-footed shot but misses.
32
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Machado Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
27
Update Update
Goncalo Matias Ramos comes on for Ousmane Dembele.
18
Attempt Attempt
Diego Coppola's header is saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Vitor Machado Ferreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
12
Attempt Attempt
Marshall Munetsi takes a right-footed shot but misses.
9
Update Update
Samir Sophian Chergui's header is blocked.
9
Attempt Attempt
Moses Simon takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Marshall Munetsi's right-footed shot is saved.
6
Attempt Attempt
Willem Geubbels takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Adama Camara's header is saved.
2
Attempt Attempt
Bradley Barcola takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Paris 2-1 Paris Saint Germain. Structural assessment: Paris exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Paris vs Paris Saint Germain preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.