Paris vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Jean Bouin Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Paris PFC
Versus
Paris Saint Germain PSG
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 2025/2026 Ligue 1 regular season at Stade Jean Bouin, 11th-placed Paris host league leaders Paris Saint Germain in a matchup of stark contrasts. PSG's power score of 95.11 dwarfs Paris's 60.78, yielding a commanding 34.3-point advantage that highlights their structural superiority. Form scores tell a closer story, with PSG at 22.78 edging Paris's 20.89, suggesting the hosts could pose problems if harnessing home support. Absent recent outing details or form records, attention turns to positional dominance and raw metrics. Set piece data remains unavailable due to low-confidence proxies and missing xG, while efficiency stats are absent. PSG's top-table pedigree positions them to dictate terms, but Paris's mid-table grit might fuel a resilient display in this intra-city clash.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Paris Saint Germain hold a 34.3 power point advantage over Paris.
  • Form: Paris Saint Germain's form score of 22.78 narrowly leads Paris's 20.89.
  • Squad: League-leading Paris Saint Germain possess superior squad strength to 11th-placed Paris.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: Advanced xG variables inaccessible due to data limitations.
  • Market: Paris 18.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 21.5% (Δ+0%) | Paris Saint Germain 60.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
VS
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.24
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Brest Rank: 74 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 80 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Monaco Rank: 80 W
Lorient Rank: 75 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 83 D
Brest Rank: 73 W
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris
18.48%
Draw
21.46%
Away Paris Saint Germain
60.06%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
60.78
95.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris
Paris Saint Germain
Power Score
60.78
95.11
League Position
11
1
Global Rank
148
5

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Paris Opponent-weighted form score
Paris Saint Germain Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Paris Saint Germain

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris PFC Home
1 matches
Paris Saint Germain PSG Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
1
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T01:08:30+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

Official lineups and formations are usually announced 60–90 minutes before kickoff. Check back closer to the match to see the starting XIs here.

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Jean Bouin
Capacity :
15097
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad

35
Kevin Trapp
Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper
1
Rémy Riou
Rémy Riou Goalkeeper
16
Obed Nkambadio
Obed Nkambadio Goalkeeper
15
Timothée Kolodziejczak
Timothée Kolodziejczak Defender
14
Hamari Traoré
Hamari Traoré Defender
28
Thibault De Smet
Thibault De Smet Defender
22
Sofiane Alakouch
Sofiane Alakouch Defender
31
Samir Chergui
Samir Chergui Defender
2
Tuomas Ollila
Tuomas Ollila Defender
5
Moustapha Mbow
Moustapha Mbow Defender
6
Otavio Ataide da Silva
Otavio Ataide da Silva Defender
42
Diego Coppola
Diego Coppola Defender
19
Nhoa Sangui
Nhoa Sangui Defender
21
Maxime Lopez
Maxime Lopez Midfielder
4
Vincent Marchetti
Vincent Marchetti Midfielder
33
Pierre Lees Melou
Pierre Lees Melou Midfielder
17
Adama Camara
Adama Camara Midfielder
18
Marshall Nyasha Munetsi
Marshall Nyasha Munetsi Midfielder
23
Rudy Matondo
Rudy Matondo Midfielder
36
Ciro Immobile
Ciro Immobile Attacker
27
Moses Daddy Simon
Moses Daddy Simon Attacker
93
Nanitamo Jonathan Ikoné
Nanitamo Jonathan Ikoné Attacker
13
Mathieu Cafaro
Mathieu Cafaro Attacker
29
Pierre-Yves Hamel
Pierre-Yves Hamel Attacker
7
Alimami Gory
Alimami Gory Attacker
20
Julien Yves Rémi López Baila
Julien Yves Rémi López Baila Attacker
11
Jean-Philippe Krasso
Jean-Philippe Krasso Attacker
10
Ilan Kebbal
Ilan Kebbal Attacker
9
Willem Geubbels
Willem Geubbels Attacker
26
Mamadou Lamine Gueye
Mamadou Lamine Gueye Attacker
24
Luca Koleosho
Luca Koleosho Attacker

Squad

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
30
Lucas Chevalier
Lucas Chevalier Goalkeeper
89
Renato Bellucci Marin
Renato Bellucci Marin Goalkeeper
5
Marcos Aoás Corrêa
Marcos Aoás Corrêa Defender
21
Lucas Hernández Pi
Lucas Hernández Pi Defender
2
Achraf Hakimi Mouh
Achraf Hakimi Mouh Defender
51
William Joel Pacho Tenorio
William Joel Pacho Tenorio Defender
6
Illia Zabarnyi
Illia Zabarnyi Defender
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes Defender
4
Lucas Lopes Beraldo
Lucas Lopes Beraldo Defender
8
Fabián Ruiz Peña
Fabián Ruiz Peña Midfielder
17
Vitor Machado Ferreira
Vitor Machado Ferreira Midfielder
87
João Pedro Gonçalves Neves
João Pedro Gonçalves Neves Midfielder
33
Warren Zaire Emery
Warren Zaire Emery Midfielder
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu Midfielder
27
Pedro Fernández Sarmiento
Pedro Fernández Sarmiento Midfielder
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
19
Kang-In Lee
Kang-In Lee Attacker
9
Goncalo Matias Ramos
Goncalo Matias Ramos Attacker
29
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Attacker
14
Desire Doue
Desire Doue Attacker
47
Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha
Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha Attacker
49
Ibrahim Mbaye
Ibrahim Mbaye Attacker

CONCLUSION

Paris Saint Germain arrive as clear frontrunners, their 34.3 power edge and top-table status overwhelming mid-table Paris. Hosts must rally home crowd for a gritty stand, exploiting any form closeness at 20.89 versus 22.78. Without set piece or efficiency insights, open-play battles and transitions loom large. PSG likely control possession, probing with superior metrics, while Paris seek counters to disrupt. Midfield supremacy decides momentum in this Ligue 1 encounter. Power disparity favors an away triumph, bolstering PSG's title push as Paris battle for points.

Paris vs Paris Saint Germain preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.