Paris vs LOSC Lille Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Jean Bouin Sun, 26 Apr - 3:15 PM
Ligue 1
Paris PFC
0 Winner 1
LOSC Lille LOSC
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
|
Goal
Matías Fernández-Pardo - 26' (P)
Pierre Lees-Melou 85' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

LOSC Lille emerged victorious with a 0-1 win over Paris in a match defined by discipline and opportunism. The away side struck first in the opening half, leading 0-1 at halftime, and maintained control despite Paris's spirited response. Possession tilted slightly to Lille at 53% against Paris's 47%, reflecting their status as the stronger team. A critical red card to Paris altered the game's flow, forcing them to chase the result with ten men. Lille's defense stood firm, absorbing pressure and capitalizing on limited chances. This result underscores Lille's tactical edge and resilience under pressure, while Paris rued the sending-off that hampered their comeback efforts. The minimal structural deviation highlighted Lille's composed performance throughout.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal 3.9% structural deviation favored LOSC Lille.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market view.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from available data.
  • Event impact: Paris red card decisively shifted match momentum to LOSC Lille.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Vernice

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Gonçalves de Araujo

1st Assistant

N. Danos

2nd Assistant

F. Batta

4th Official

Paris A. Kombouare
A. Kombouare
VS
LOSC Lille B. Génésio
B. Génésio
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.82
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metz Rank: W
Monaco Rank: W
Lorient Rank: D
Le Havre Rank: W
Strasbourg Rank: D
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nice Rank: D
Toulouse Rank: W
Lens Rank: W
Olympique Marseille Rank: W
Rennes Rank: W
Lorient Rank: D
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris
0.19%
Draw
3.7%
Away LOSC Lille
96.11%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paris
0%
Draw
-0.03%
LOSC Lille
+0.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.69
37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris
LOSC Lille
Power Score
26.69
37
League Position
12
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Paris Opponent-weighted form score
LOSC Lille Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris LOSC Lille

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Paris

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

LOSC Lille

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LOSC Lille
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.32
23.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.30
20.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris -0.30 Efficiency Index
vs
LOSC Lille +0.30 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris
LOSC Lille
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy LOSC Lille
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris LOSC Lille
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris LOSC Lille
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris
LOSC Lille
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Paris
vs
LOSC Lille
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris LOSC Lille
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris LOSC Lille
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Paris
LOSC Lille
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PFC had peak pressure around 79'.
  • LOSC started the game with stronger pressure.
PFC Pressure LOSC Pressure
Pressure Index: PFC reached the top pressure at 79' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris PFC Home
1 matches
LOSC Lille LOSC Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
2
-2
Goal Difference
+2

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:06:58+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
K. Trapp
Germany
35 K. Trapp
A. Camara
Substitution
France
17 A. Camara
D. Coppola
Italy
42 D. Coppola
M. Mbow
Senegal
5 M. Mbow
N. Sangui
France
19 N. Sangui
P. Lees Melou
France
33 P. Lees Melou
M. Lopez
Substitution
France
21 M. Lopez
N. Ikoné
France
93 N. Ikoné
M. Munetsi
Substitution
Zimbabwe
18 M. Munetsi
M. Simon
Substitution
Nigeria
27 M. Simon
C. Immobile
Substitution
Italy
36 C. Immobile
Pitch
B. Özer
Türkiye
1 B. Özer
R. Perraud
France
15 R. Perraud
A. Mandi
Algeria
23 A. Mandi
N. Ngoy
Belgium
3 N. Ngoy
T. Meunier
Belgium
12 T. Meunier
A. Bouaddi
France
32 A. Bouaddi
B. André
France
21 B. André
F. Sanches Correia
Substitution
Portugal
27 F. Sanches Correia
H. Haraldsson
Substitution
Iceland
10 H. Haraldsson
N. Mukau
Belgium
17 N. Mukau
M. Fernandez Pardo
Substitution
Belgium
7 M. Fernandez Pardo

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Jean Bouin
Capacity :
15097
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mathieu Vernice
Florian Gonçalves de Araujo
Nicolas Danos
Florent Batta

Statistics

Possession
PFC
47%
LOSC
53%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 3
51 Dangerous attacks 47
47 Possession 53
7 Corners 3
9 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Substitutions 3
1 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Goal Kicks 9
11 Successful Headers 5
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 73
14 Dribble Attempts 15
7 Successful Dribbles 11
1 Penalties 1
60 Ball Safe 76
3 Goal Attempts 5
17 Throwins 20

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 1
64 Attacks 77

Possession

44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
52 Long Passes 45
23 Successful Long Passes 20
5 Key Passes 8
418 Passes 492
83 Successful Passes Percentage 85
345 Successful Passes 418

Defensive

19 Tackles 16
3 Saves 2
45 Duels Won 44
8 Interceptions 8

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 2
21 Total Crosses 8

Discipline

12 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mathieu Vernice

Starting XI

35
Kevin Trapp
Kevin Trapp Goalkeeper
6.89
5
Moustapha Mbow
Moustapha Mbow Defender
6.92
17
Adama Camara
Adama Camara Defender
6.76
14
Hamari Traoré
Hamari Traoré
Defender90+2'
6.63
19
Nhoa Sangui
Nhoa Sangui Defender
6.65
42
Diego Coppola
Diego Coppola Defender
6.88
18
Marshall Munetsi
Marshall Munetsi Midfielder
6.88
7
Alimami Gory
Alimami Gory
Attacker46'
6.61
21
Maxime Lopez
Maxime Lopez Midfielder
6.98
23
Rudy Matondo
Rudy Matondo
Midfielder46'
6.46
27
Moses Simon
Moses Simon Midfielder
6.78
10
Ilan Kebbal
Ilan Kebbal
Midfielder69'
7.46
33
Pierre Lees-Melou
Pierre Lees-Melou Midfielder
6.9
93
Jonathan Ikoné
Jonathan Ikoné Midfielder
6.75
36
Ciro Immobile
Ciro Immobile Attacker
6.97
24
Luca Koleosho
Luca Koleosho
Attacker69'
6.8
Referee : Mathieu Vernice

Starting XI

1
Berke Özer
Berke Özer Goalkeeper
6.85
3
Nathan Ngoy
Nathan Ngoy Defender
6.85
12
Thomas Meunier
Thomas Meunier Defender
6.9
15
Romain Perraud
Romain Perraud Defender
7.03
23
Aïssa Mandi
Aïssa Mandi Defender
7.09
10
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson Midfielder
7.04
8
Ethan Mbappé
Ethan Mbappé
Midfielder78'
6.7
17
Ngal'ayel Mukau
Ngal'ayel Mukau Midfielder
6.63
21
Benjamin André
Benjamin André Midfielder
7.17
27
Félix Correia
Félix Correia Midfielder
6.89
28
Gaëtan Perrin
Gaëtan Perrin
Attacker83'
6.92
32
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Ayyoub Bouaddi Midfielder
6.82
7
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Matías Fernández-Pardo Attacker
7.11
9
Olivier Giroud
Olivier Giroud
Attacker83'
6.85

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alimami Gory
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Event
Nathan Ngoy
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Hamari Traoré Adama Camara
8th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Ilan Kebbal
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Pierre Lees-Melou
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
85'
Event
Pierre Lees-Melou
Argument / 1st Yellow/red Card
85'
83'
Event
Olivier Giroud Matías Fernández-Pardo
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Gaëtan Perrin Félix Correia
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Ethan Mbappé Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
5th Substitution
Event
Ilan Kebbal
Woodwork
74'
Event
Jonathan Ikoné
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Luca Koleosho Ciro Immobile
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Ilan Kebbal Moses Simon
3rd Substitution
69'
63'
Event
Benjamin André
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Ayyoub Bouaddi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Alimami Gory Marshall Munetsi
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Rudy Matondo Maxime Lopez
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Matías Fernández-Pardo
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Moustapha Mbow
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alimami Gory from Paris FC receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Ethan Mbappé from Lille wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Ilan Kebbal of Paris FC.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ilan Kebbal from Paris FC receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Alimami Gory of Paris FC is caught offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
Romain Perraud's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Gaëtan Perrin provided the assist.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Hamari Traoré comes on for Adama Camara.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Moustapha Mbow of Paris FC.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nathan Ngoy from Lille receives a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Olivier Giroud wins a free kick in the defensive half for Lille.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Paris FC losing 0-1 to Lille.
88
Update Update
Moustapha Mbow's header from the center of the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Ilan Kebbal's cross.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Aïssa Mandi concedes.
87
Update Update
Rudy Matondo from Paris FC wins a free kick on the left wing.
87
Update Update
Foul committed by Olivier Giroud for Lille.
85
Update Update
Olivier Giroud wins a free kick for Lille in the attacking half.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC receives a second yellow card.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Diego Coppola of Paris FC.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pierre Lees-Melou from Paris FC receives a yellow card.
84
Update Update
Nathan Ngoy from Lille wins a free kick in the defensive half.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Gaëtan Perrin comes on for Félix Correia.
84
Update Update
Nathan Ngoy from Lille wins a free kick in the defensive half.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Olivier Giroud comes on for Matias Fernandez-Pardo.
82
Update Update
Félix Correia commits a foul for Lille.
82
Update Update
Rudy Matondo from Paris FC wins a free kick in the defensive half.
79
Attempt Attempt
Benjamin André's header from the left side of the six-yard box is saved in the top center of the goal by Kevin Trapp. The attempt was assisted by Félix Correia.
79
Update Update
Aïssa Mandi of Lille is caught offside.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lille: Ethan Mbappé comes on for Hákon Haraldsson.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC.
77
Update Update
Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille wins a free kick in the attacking half.
76
Attempt Attempt
Alimami Gory's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Luca Koleosho provided the assist.
74
Attempt Attempt
Luca Koleosho's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the middle of the goal.
74
Attempt Attempt
Penalty missed! The score remains Paris FC 0, Lille 1. Ilan Kebbal from Paris FC hits the right post with a left-footed shot.
72
Update Update
Ayel Mukau of Lille committed a handball in the penalty area.
72
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC receives a yellow card.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after a foul by Thomas Meunier.
71
Update Update
Alimami Gory of Paris FC is caught offside.
70
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC had a left-footed shot from the right side of the box.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Luca Koleosho comes on for Ciro Immobile.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Ilan Kebbal comes on for Moses Simon.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Benjamin André of Lille.
67
Attempt Attempt
Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille hits the bar with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Hákon Haraldsson.
67
Update Update
Jonathan Ikoné of Paris FC wins a free kick in the defensive half.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Benjamin André of Lille receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Benjamin André of Lille.
63
Update Update
Moses Simon from Paris FC wins a free kick in the defensive half.
61
Update Update
Foul committed by Moustapha Mbow of Paris FC.
61
Update Update
Hákon Haraldsson from Lille wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Aïssa Mandi concedes.
55
Update Update
Nhoa Sangui from Paris FC is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
55
Update Update
Félix Correia commits a foul for Lille.
54
Corner Corner
Lille wins a corner after Kevin Trapp concedes.
54
Corner Corner
Lille wins a corner after Moustapha Mbow concedes.
54
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Benjamin André's header from the center of the box is saved in the top center of the goal. Romain Perraud provided the assist with a cross.
52
Attempt Attempt
Thomas Meunier from Lille misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the right. The assist came from Benjamin André.
51
Attempt Attempt
Matias Fernandez-Pardo's left-footed shot from a tough angle on the right is blocked. Thomas Meunier provided the assist.
49
Update Update
Foul committed by Ayyoub Bouaddi of Lille.
49
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Pierre Lees-Melou from Paris FC.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ayyoub Bouaddi of Lille receives a yellow card for a foul.
49
Update Update
Pierre Lees-Melou of Paris FC wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Kayel Mukau of Lille wins a free kick in the attacking half.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Rudy Matondo of Paris FC.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Rudy Matondo of Paris FC.
46
Update Update
Foul by Thomas Meunier for Lille.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Romain Perraud concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Paris FC trailing Lille 1-0.
45
Update Update
Foul by Moustapha Mbow of Paris FC.
45
Update Update
Jayel Mukau from Lille wins a free kick on the right wing.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Rudy Matondo comes on for Maxime Lopez.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Paris FC 0, Lille 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris FC: Rudy Matondo comes on for Maxime Lopez.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Félix Correia concedes.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Adama Camara of Paris FC.
36
Update Update
Félix Correia wins a free kick for Lille in the defensive half.
35
Update Update
Jonathan Ikoné from Paris FC wins a free kick in the attacking half.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Romain Perraud for Lille.
32
Update Update
Foul committed by Ciro Immobile against Paris FC.
32
Update Update
Nathan Ngoy of Lille wins a free kick in the defensive half.
31
Update Update
Offside called against Paris FC. Jonathan Ikoné is caught offside.
28
Update Update
Moses Simon of Paris FC is caught offside.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Matias Fernandez-Pardo scores for Lille with a right-footed shot into the bottom left corner. The match score is now Paris FC 0, Lille 1.
25
Update Update
Marshall Munetsi of Paris FC concedes a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
25
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Lille as Romain Perraud is fouled in the penalty area.
25
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille.
20
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ciro Immobile of Paris FC.
16
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after Ayyoub Bouaddi concedes.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Moustapha Mbow from Paris FC, who had a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris FC after a concession by Thomas Meunier.
14
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Romain Perraud of Lille takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes too high from a direct free kick.
11
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille.
10
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moustapha Mbow of Paris FC receives a yellow card for a foul.
10
Update Update
Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille wins a free kick in the attacking half.
10
Update Update
Matias Fernandez-Pardo from Lille wins a free kick in the attacking half.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Moustapha Mbow of Paris FC.
7
Corner Corner
Lille wins a corner after Moses Simon concedes.
6
Attempt Attempt
Ciro Immobile misses the attempt for Paris FC with a right-footed shot from the center of the box that goes too high. The cross was assisted by Adama Camara.

CONCLUSION

LOSC Lille's 0-1 triumph over Paris validates their superiority, as the stronger team navigated a red card disruption to secure the points. Leading 0-1 at halftime, Lille's 53% possession and defensive solidity proved decisive against a numerically disadvantaged Paris. The minimal deviation and aligned efficiencies reflect a match where Lille executed their game plan flawlessly. Paris's sending-off exposed vulnerabilities, preventing any real threat despite even possession. This outcome reinforces Lille's consistency and ability to grind out results, positioning them favorably in the standings while Paris must regroup from the setback.

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