Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Parc des Princes Fri, 3 Apr - 6:45 PM
Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain PSG
3 Winner 1
Toulouse TOU
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 28 Regular Season
Gonçalo Ramos - 90+2'
Ousmane Dembélé - 33', 23'
Goal
|
Goal
Rasmus Nicolaisen - 27'

CONTEXT

The match has finished, with Paris Saint Germain securing a comfortable 3-1 victory over Toulouse. The stronger side established control early, taking a 2-1 lead into halftime before adding a third goal to safely seal the result. This outcome was perfectly aligned with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the hosts with a 74.2% implied win probability, compared to a 16.4% chance of a draw and just 9.4% for a Toulouse upset. Paris Saint Germain completely dictated the tempo of the game, commanding a massive 72% of the possession while restricting Toulouse to just 28% of the ball. Although expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to measure the underlying chance quality, the final outcome was entirely in line with the overall efficiency shift. Furthermore, the match data indicated a significant deviation level of 25.8% leaning toward Paris Saint Germain, reflecting their absolute authority over the contest. The fixture concluded smoothly without any red cards, meaning disciplinary issues did not artificially impact the flow of the game. Ultimately, Paris Saint Germain delivered a dominant performance that effortlessly met their high pre-match expectations.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Paris Saint Germain showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Wattellier

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Favre

1st Assistant

F. Gonçalves de Araujo

2nd Assistant

K. Abed

4th Official

Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
2.25
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nice Rank: 70 W
Monaco Rank: 81 L
Le Havre Rank: 67 W
Metz Rank: 62 W
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: 74 W
Metz Rank: 62 W
Olympique Marseille Rank: 82 L
Rennes Rank: 77 L
Paris Rank: 69 D
Le Havre Rank: 67 L
24
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
24 - 5 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
74.17%
Draw
16.41%
Away Toulouse
9.42%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
93.91
73.91
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Toulouse
Power Score
93.91
73.91
League Position
1
9
Global Rank
6
125

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Toulouse

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Toulouse

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Toulouse
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.36
22.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
22.86
27.36
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris Saint Germain +0.44 Efficiency Index
vs
Toulouse -0.44 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Toulouse
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Toulouse
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Saint Germain Toulouse
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Toulouse
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Toulouse
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paris Saint Germain
vs
Toulouse
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris Saint Germain Toulouse
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paris Saint Germain 0.31
Toulouse 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Toulouse
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paris Saint Germain 0.04
Toulouse 0.06
Paris Saint Germain
Toulouse
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
36 matches
Toulouse TOU Away
Match Record
24
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
24
Goals
71
Goals Scored
30
30
Goals Conceded
71
+41
Goal Difference
-41

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:03:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
M. Safonov
Russia
39 M. Safonov
A. Hakimi Mouh
Morocco
2 A. Hakimi Mouh
I. Zabarnyi
Ukraine
6 I. Zabarnyi
W. Pacho Tenorio
Ecuador
51 W. Pacho Tenorio
L. Hernández Pi
France
21 L. Hernández Pi
W. Zaire Emery
France
33 W. Zaire Emery
L. Lopes Beraldo
Substitution
Brazil
4 L. Lopes Beraldo
D. Doue
Substitution
France
14 D. Doue
K. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
19 K. Lee
O. Dembélé
France
10 O. Dembélé
K. Kvaratskhelia
Substitution
Georgia
7 K. Kvaratskhelia
Pitch
G. Restes
France
1 G. Restes
R. Nicolaisen
Denmark
2 R. Nicolaisen
S. Koumbassa
35 S. Koumbassa
M. McKenzie
United States
3 M. McKenzie
D. Methalie
Substitution
24 D. Methalie
P. Diop
Senegal
18 P. Diop
C. Cásseres Yepes
Substitution
Venezuela
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
D. Sidibé
Substitution
France
19 D. Sidibé
Y. Gboho
France
10 Y. Gboho
A. Dønnum
Norway
15 A. Dønnum
E. Correia da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
20 E. Correia da Silva

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 03, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Parc des Princes
Capacity :
48583
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Eric Wattellier
Cédric Favre
Florian Gonçalves de Araujo
Karim Abed

Statistics

Possession
PSG
68%
TOU
32%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 0
9 Shots 1
54 Dangerous attacks 28
72 Possession 28
5 Corners 2
13 Free kicks 4
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

13 Throwins 15
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
83 Ball Safe 59
11 Goal Attempts 5
9 Goal Kicks 6
13 Dribble Attempts 12
8 Successful Headers 6
8 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 4
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

113 Attacks 91

Possession

43 Long Passes 34
91 Successful Passes Percentage 79
739 Successful Passes 247
812 Passes 312
13 Key Passes 3
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
22 Successful Long Passes 13

Defensive

0 Saves 3
48 Duels Won 26
21 Tackles 11
8 Interceptions 9

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 6
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

4 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

39
Matvey Safonov
Matvey Safonov Goalkeeper
2
Achraf Hakimi
Achraf Hakimi Defender
6
Ilya Zabarnyi
Ilya Zabarnyi Defender
21
Lucas Hernández
Lucas Hernández Defender
51
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho Defender
4
Lucas Beraldo
Lucas Beraldo Midfielder
17
Vitinha
Vitinha
Midfielder67'
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué Midfielder
9
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos
Attacker87'
33
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Warren Zaïre-Emery Midfielder
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Attacker
25
Nuno Mendes
Nuno Mendes
Defender68'
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé Attacker
2
19
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee Attacker
87
João Neves
João Neves
Midfielder59'
Referee : Eric Wattellier

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Defender
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Defender
35
Seny Koumbassa
Seny Koumbassa Defender
18
Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop Midfielder
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Midfielder
37
Ilyas Azizi
Ilyas Azizi
Attacker83'
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Midfielder
77
Mario Sauer
Mario Sauer
Midfielder83'
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Midfielder
12
Warren Kamanzi
Warren Kamanzi
Defender67'
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Attacker
15
Aron Dønnum
Aron Dønnum Attacker
20
Emersonn
Emersonn Attacker
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Attacker83'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Gonçalo Ramos
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+2'
Event
Gonçalo Ramos → Désiré Doué
8th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Mario Sauer → Cristian Cásseres Jr.
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Jacen Russell-Rowe → Emersonn
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Ilyas Azizi → Djibril Sidibé
5th Substitution
Event
Nuno Mendes → Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Vitinha → Lucas Beraldo
3rd Substitution
67'
67'
Event
Warren Kamanzi → Dayann Methalie
2nd Substitution
Event
João Neves → Kang-in Lee
1st Substitution
59'
1ST-HALF
36'
Event
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
33'
27'
Event
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Ousmane Dembélé
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
23'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
João Neves from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Aron Dønnum of Toulouse.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Gonçalo Ramos scores for Paris Saint Germain with a right-footed shot from outside the box into the right corner. The match score is now Paris Saint Germain 3, Toulouse 1, with an assist from Nuno Mendes.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Paris Saint Germain winning 3-1 against Toulouse.
89
Attempt Attempt
Achraf Hakimi's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
88
Update Update
Warren Kamanzi of Toulouse is caught offside.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Gonçalo Ramos replaces Désiré Doué.
85
Update Update
Yann Gboho of Toulouse is caught offside.
84
Corner Corner
Toulouse wins a corner after João Neves concedes.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Jacen Russell-Rowe replaces Emersonn.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Mário Sauer replaces Cristian Cásseres.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Ilyas Azizi replaces Djibril Sidibé.
78
Update Update
Nuno Mendes is flagged for offside for Paris Saint Germain.
77
Update Update
Emersonn of Toulouse is flagged for offside.
75
Attempt Attempt
Emersonn from Toulouse misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes high. Cristian Cásseres provided the assist.
74
Update Update
João Neves from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
74
Update Update
Aron Dønnum from Toulouse committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
68
Update Update
Handball by Emersonn of Toulouse.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Nuno Mendes replaces Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Vitinha replaces Beraldo.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Toulouse: Warren Kamanzi replaces Dayann Methalie.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from outside the box that is very close to the goal. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist.
63
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Willian Pacho of Paris Saint Germain has a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Guillaume Restes of Toulouse.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint-Germain after Djibril Sidibé concedes.
63
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Illia Zabarnyi of Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box, but it's saved in the right corner by Guillaume Restes of Toulouse.
63
Attempt Attempt
João Neves of Paris Saint Germain has a right-footed shot from outside the box that is blocked. The assist came from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
60
Update Update
Rasmus Nicolaisen from Toulouse won a free kick in defense.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Warren Zaïre-Emery of Paris Saint Germain.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: João Neves replaces Lee Kang-In.
54
Corner Corner
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Lee Kang-In, who provided a cross after a corner.
54
Update Update
Ousmane Dembélé of Paris Saint Germain is flagged for offside.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Mark McKenzie concedes.
51
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain shot with his right foot from the right side of the box but missed to the left. The assist was by Lee Kang-In.
47
Attempt Attempt
Pape Diop from Toulouse had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but missing to the left.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Paris Saint Germain leading Toulouse 2-1.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half starts with Paris Saint Germain leading Toulouse 2-1.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Dayann Methalie of Toulouse.
43
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Lee Kang-In of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
42
Update Update
Foul committed by Rasmus Nicolaisen of Toulouse.
41
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
41
Update Update
Cristian Cásseres from Toulouse won a free kick in defense.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Yann Gboho of Toulouse.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Kang-In of Paris Saint Germain.
40
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after being conceded by Seny Koumbassa.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Rasmus Nicolaisen concedes.
39
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Ousmane Dembélé provided the assist.
37
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box but sending it high. Achraf Hakimi provided the assist.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Cristian Cásseres of Toulouse.
36
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Cristian Cásseres of Toulouse receives a yellow card for a foul.
36
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
33
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Lee Kang-In's cross.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after being conceded by Seny Koumbassa.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain lead 2-1 against Toulouse. Ousmane Dembélé scores with a right-footed shot from close range to the center of the goal, assisted by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia after a corner.
30
Update Update
Offside called against Toulouse. Djibril Sidibé is offside.
29
Update Update
Cristian Cásseres from Toulouse won a free kick in an attacking position.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Toulouse equalizes with Rasmus Nicolaisen heading the ball into the top left corner from the center of the box, assisted by Djibril Sidibé following a corner. The score is now 1-1.
26
Corner Corner
Toulouse wins a corner after Illia Zabarnyi concedes.
23
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain leads Toulouse 1-0 after Ousmane Dembélé scores with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box into the top right corner.
21
Update Update
Aron Dønnum of Toulouse commits a handball.
21
Attempt Attempt
Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint Germain had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went high and wide to the left. The assist was provided by Beraldo.
20
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick on the right wing.
20
Update Update
Foul by Dayann Methalie of Toulouse.
16
Attempt Attempt
Pape Diop from Toulouse had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went just left of the goal. Yann Gboho provided the assist.
14
Attempt Attempt
Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint Germain had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box but missing to the left. Achraf Hakimi provided the assist after a fast break.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Dayann Methalie of Toulouse.
11
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in an attacking position.
9
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in an attacking position.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Lee Kang-In of Paris Saint Germain.
9
Update Update
Pape Diop from Toulouse won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Mark McKenzie fouled a player from Toulouse.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Dayann Methalie of Toulouse.
6
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint Germain won a free kick on the right wing.
3
Attempt Attempt
Désiré Doué's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist was provided by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
3
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved by goalkeeper Guillaume Restes in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Lee Kang-In.
2
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia of Paris Saint Germain won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Aron Dønnum of Toulouse.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Paris Saint Germain exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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