Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Parc des Princes Fri, 6 Mar - 7:45 PM
Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain PSG
1 Winner 3
Monaco ASM
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 7:45 PM
Bradley Barcola - 71'
Goal
|
Goal
Folarin Balogun - 73'
Aleksandr Golovin - 55'
Maghnes Akliouche - 27'

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, concluding with a massive upset as Monaco defeated Paris Saint Germain 3-1. Monaco established a 1-0 lead by halftime and maintained their momentum through the second half. This result represents a significant deviation by Monaco from pre-match expectations. Paris Saint Germain entered the contest as heavy favorites with a 68.4% implied market probability of winning, while Monaco held merely a 14% chance. Consequently, the final result did not align with the pre-match market. Despite the lopsided scoreline, Paris Saint Germain absolutely dominated the ball, commanding 72% possession compared to Monaco's 28%. Because expected goals (xG) data is unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final outcome was consistent with the underlying chance creation of either side. The efficiency shift was in line with the overall dynamic of the match. Monaco made the absolute most of their limited possession with a positive efficiency rating (1.4142), while Paris Saint Germain proved highly inefficient (-1.4142) despite controlling the tempo. Finally, the match was contested without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to either squad.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Monaco showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Buquet

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Danos

2nd Assistant

T. Léonard

4th Official

B. Pages

1st Assistant

Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Monaco S. Pocognoli
S. Pocognoli
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.24
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Strasbourg Rank: W
Auxerre Rank: W
LOSC Lille Rank: W
Paris Rank: W
Metz Rank: W
Rennes Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rennes Rank: W
Le Havre Rank: D
Lorient Rank: L
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: L
Olympique Marseille Rank: L
Brest Rank: L
14
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
14 - 15 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
68.39%
Draw
17.66%
Away Monaco
13.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76
53.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
Power Score
76
53.33
League Position
1
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Monaco — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Monaco

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Monaco

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Monaco
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
34.58
45.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
45.36
34.58
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Paris Saint Germain -1.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Monaco +1.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris Saint Germain
vs
Monaco
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Saint Germain Monaco
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Monaco
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
11 matches
Monaco ASM Away
Match Record
4
Wins
5
2
Draws
2
5
Losses
4
Goals
19
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
19
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:30:33+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 07:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stadium :
Parc des Princes
Capacity :
48583
Attendance :
46806
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nicolas Danos
Thomas Léonard
Ruddy Buquet
Benjamin Pages

Statistics

Possession
PSG
67%
ASM
33%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 3
2 Big Chances Created 3
6 Shots 6
98 Dangerous attacks 34
72 Possession 28
7 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

15 Throwins 19
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
18 Dribble Attempts 15
4 Goal Kicks 16
13 Successful Headers 3
10 Successful Dribbles 4
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 2
0 Injuries 2
16 Goal Attempts 10
77 Ball Safe 74
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

139 Attacks 72
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

704 Passes 269
27 Successful Long Passes 18
41 Long Passes 41
66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 44
633 Successful Passes 203
90 Successful Passes Percentage 75
18 Key Passes 9

Defensive

3 Saves 5
11 Interceptions 13
18 Tackles 25

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 2
18 Total Crosses 9

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
12 Fouls 6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Achraf Hakimi
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+1'
81'
Event
Simon Adingra → Maghnes Akliouche
8th Substitution
81'
Event
Mika Biereth → Folarin Balogun
9th Substitution
76'
Event
Lamine Camara
Simulation / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Gonçalo Ramos → Warren Zaïre-Emery
7th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Folarin Balogun
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Bradley Barcola
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
71'
71'
Event
Folarin Balogun
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Kang-in Lee → Pedro Fernández
5th Substitution
60'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé → Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Senny Mayulu → Désiré Doué
6th Substitution
60'
55'
Event
Aleksandr Golovin
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
54'
Event
Aleksandr Golovin → Aladji Bamba
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Christian Mawissa → Caio Henrique
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+4'
Event
Wout Faes
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
27'
Event
Maghnes Akliouche
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
15'
Event
J. Teze → Vanderson
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint Germain attempts a right-footed strike from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
90
Update Update
Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint-Germain has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Simon Adingra commits a foul against Monaco.
90
Update Update
Achraf Hakimi of Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Paris Saint Germain 1, Monaco 3.
90
Update Update
Willian Pacho from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Mika Biereth from Monaco was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be seven minutes of stoppage time.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Aleksandr Golovin from Monaco takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Matvey Safonov, the goalkeeper for Paris Saint-Germain, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Jordan Teze.
88
Attempt Attempt
Simon Adingra from Monaco strikes the crossbar with a right-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area.
85
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Vitinha from Paris Saint-Germain took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal and to the right. The assist came from Achraf Hakimi.
84
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Gonçalo Ramos from Paris Saint-Germain attempted a header from the center of the penalty area following a corner kick.
84
Corner Corner
Another offensive push underway. Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint Germain takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's expertly saved in the top left corner by Philipp Köhn of Monaco.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Christian Mawissa allowed the ball to go out.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Mika Biereth comes on to replace Folarin Balogun.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Simon Adingra replaces Maghnes Akliouche.
80
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint-Germain attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
79
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. The attempt is stopped in the left corner by goalkeeper Philipp Köhn of Monaco, with the assist coming from Senny Mayulu.
79
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Gonçalo Ramos from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but Denis Zakaria of Monaco makes a save, diving to his left to stop the ball.
78
Update Update
Offside call against Monaco. Mamadou Coulibaly is caught offside.
77
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly from Monaco was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Update Update
Vitinha from Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
76
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
76
Update Update
Senny Mayulu from Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lamine Camara from Monaco has been shown a yellow card.
75
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco has fallen to the ground, but the referee believes he is pretending to be injured.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint-Germain: Gonçalo Ramos comes off, and Warren Zaïre-Emery takes his place.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Monaco takes the lead with a score of 3-1 against Paris Saint Germain. Folarin Balogun scores with a powerful right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Maghnes Akliouche.
73
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Denis Zakaria from Monaco takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Maghnes Akliouche.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Matvey Safonov allowed the ball to go out.
72
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Lamine Camara from Monaco takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Matvey Safonov of Paris Saint Germain makes a great save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal.
71
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Paris Saint Germain 1, Monaco 2. Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Folarin Balogun from Monaco has been shown a yellow card.
70
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Ousmane Dembélé from Paris Saint-Germain took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Lee Kang-In.
69
Update Update
Offside call against Monaco. Jordan Teze has been flagged for being in an offside position.
68
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint-Germain attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
67
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco earned a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery from Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly from Monaco committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint-Germain earned a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Update Update
Mamadou Coulibaly from Monaco committed a foul.
65
Update Update
Senny Mayulu from Paris Saint Germain has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
65
Attempt Attempt
Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint-Germain had a great opportunity but failed to convert it, firing a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
64
Update Update
Thilo Kehrer from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
64
Update Update
Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Denis Zakaria's defensive play.
63
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Aleksandr Golovin allowed the ball to go out of play.
62
Update Update
Another offensive effort unfolds. Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint Germain heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Philipp Köhn from Monaco makes a great save, stopping it in the upper center of the goal. The assist came from Achraf Hakimi.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint-Germain: Ousmane Dembélé is coming off, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is taking his place.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Lee Kang-In is coming on to replace Dro Fernández.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Paris Saint Germain: Ousmane Dembélé comes on to replace Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
57
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Monaco, following a play that Matvey Safonov couldn't prevent.
57
Update Update
Nuno Mendes commits a foul for Paris Saint Germain.
57
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Aleksandr Golovin from Monaco takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. Matvey Safonov of Paris Saint-Germain makes a fantastic save, reaching to the top right corner. The assist came from Thilo Kehrer, who set him up with a header.
57
Update Update
Jordan Teze from Monaco earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Monaco takes a 2-0 lead against Paris Saint Germain. Aleksandr Golovin scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the bottom right corner.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Christian Mawissa comes on to replace Caio Henrique due to an injury.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Aleksandr Golovin comes off, replaced by Aladji Bamba.
50
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint-Germain attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
47
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint-Germain, following a defensive play by Thilo Kehrer.
45
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Monaco leading Paris Saint Germain by a score of 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Mamadou Coulibaly from Monaco attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area...
45
Update Update
Maghnes Akliouche from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
45
Update Update
Nuno Mendes committed a foul for Paris Saint Germain.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Paris Saint-Germain trailing Monaco 0-1.
45
Update Update
Illia Zabarnyi commits a foul against Paris Saint Germain.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Thilo Kehrer allowed the ball to go out.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wout Faes from Monaco has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be six minutes of stoppage time.
41
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
40
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Philipp Köhn from Monaco.
39
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Wout Faes allowed the ball to go out.
39
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint Germain takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Nuno Mendes.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Wout Faes allowed the ball to go out.
37
Update Update
Philipp Köhn of Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
37
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Bradley Barcola from Paris Saint-Germain attempts a right-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's intercepted. The assist came from Nuno Mendes.
37
Update Update
Philipp Köhn from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery from Paris Saint-Germain was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Update Update
Désiré Doué from Paris Saint Germain committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Lamine Camara from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Monaco takes the lead against Paris Saint Germain, making it 1-0. Maghnes Akliouche scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner. The assist comes from Folarin Balogun.
26
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Vitinha from Paris Saint Germain attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Dro Fernández.
24
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Paris Saint Germain after Thilo Kehrer allowed the ball to go out.
24
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia from Paris Saint-Germain takes a left-footed shot from a challenging angle on the left, but it's successfully blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Dro Fernández from Paris Saint Germain attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
17
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Maghnes Akliouche from Monaco took a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but couldn't find the target.
15
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Monaco: Jordan Teze replaces Vanderson due to an injury.
14
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Vanderson from Monaco.
14
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
12
Update Update
Nuno Mendes from Paris Saint-Germain was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Aladji Bamba from Monaco commits a foul.
12
Update Update
Aladji Bamba from Monaco has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
12
Update Update
Warren Zaïre-Emery from Paris Saint-Germain committed a foul.
10
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint-Germain took a long-range shot with his right foot from the right side.
8
Update Update
Offside call against Paris Saint Germain. Bradley Barcola has been caught in an offside position.
6
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive effort unfolds as Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint-Germain takes a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box. The attempt, aimed at the left side of the goal, is expertly stopped by goalkeeper Philipp Köhn, who is positioned centrally. The assist comes from Bradley Barcola of Monaco.
5
Corner Corner
Close call! Denis Zakaria of Monaco heads the ball from just a few meters out, but it narrowly misses the target. The assist came from Caio Henrique, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
4
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Monaco after Willian Pacho allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Monaco exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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