Paris Saint Germain vs Brest Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Parc des Princes Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Paris Saint Germain PSG
1 Winner 0
Brest B29
Full Time Sun, 10 May 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Paris Saint Germain claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Brest in their Ligue 1 clash, maintaining their strong home form. The match was goalless at halftime, with both sides locked at 0-0 despite PSG's commanding 67% possession against Brest's 33%. The Parisians dominated proceedings but faced a stubborn defensive effort from the visitors, who restricted clear chances early on. A second-half breakthrough finally rewarded PSG's sustained pressure, securing the win for the stronger team without any interruptions from red cards. This outcome showed a significant 20.8% structural deviation for PSG, reflecting a tighter contest than their control suggested. Brest battled admirably but lacked the firepower to convert limited opportunities. PSG's quality shone through in key moments, extending their lead at the top while Brest remains competitive in mid-table. The clean sheet and efficient play highlight tactical discipline on both ends.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The match showed a significant 20.8% structural deviation favoring Paris Saint Germain.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations throughout the game.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The final result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained unassessable without relevant data.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments altered the match flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to natural game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Brisard

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Auger

1st Assistant

France

S. Torregrossa

2nd Assistant

France

G. Kubler

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.25
Yellow cards / match 3.19
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.27
Paris Saint Germain L. Martínez García
L. Martínez García
VS
Brest E. Roy
E. Roy
2.26
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: 74 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Nantes Rank: 65 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 81 L
Toulouse Rank: 74 W
Nice Rank: 73 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Rank: 72 L
Lens Rank: 82 D
Nantes Rank: 64 D
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Auxerre Rank: 70 L
Monaco Rank: 80 L
18
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
18 - 2 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Paris Saint Germain
79.19%
Draw
13.27%
Away Brest
7.54%

Movement

Changes since opening
Paris Saint Germain
-16.04%
Draw
+8.69%
Brest
+7.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
94.97
72.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Paris Saint Germain
Brest
Power Score
94.97
72.88
League Position
1
12
Global Rank
5
142

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Paris Saint Germain — Opponent-weighted form score
Brest — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Paris Saint Germain Brest

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Paris Saint Germain

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Paris Saint Germain ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brest
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Paris Saint Germain Brest
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Brest
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Paris Saint Germain
Brest
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Paris Saint Germain
vs
Brest
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Paris Saint Germain Brest
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Paris Saint Germain 0.00
Brest 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Paris Saint Germain Brest
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Paris Saint Germain 0.00
Brest 0.00
Paris Saint Germain
Brest
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PSG had peak pressure around 18'.
  • PSG started the game with stronger pressure.
PSG Pressure B29 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PSG reached the top pressure at 18' (70.37).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Paris Saint Germain PSG Home
20 matches
Brest B29 Away
Match Record
18
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
18
Goals
55
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
55
+40
Goal Difference
-40

Data last updated: 2026-05-10T18:30:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
R. Bellucci Marin
Italy
89 R. Bellucci Marin
S. Mayulu
France
24 S. Mayulu
I. Zabarnyi
Ukraine
6 I. Zabarnyi
M. Aoás Corrêa
Brazil
5 M. Aoás Corrêa
L. Hernández Pi
France
21 L. Hernández Pi
P. Fernández Sarmiento
27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
L. Lopes Beraldo
Brazil
4 L. Lopes Beraldo
F. Ruiz Peña
Substitution
Spain
8 F. Ruiz Peña
K. Lee
Substitution
South Korea
19 K. Lee
G. Ramos
Substitution
Portugal
9 G. Ramos
B. Barcola
Substitution
France
29 B. Barcola
Pitch
G. Coudert
France
30 G. Coudert
D. Guindo
Mali
27 D. Guindo
R. Le Guen
71 R. Le Guen
M. Diaz
4 M. Diaz
J. Chotard
France
13 J. Chotard
L. Tousart
Substitution
France
24 L. Tousart
E. Dina Ebimbe
France
7 E. Dina Ebimbe
H. Magnetti
France
8 H. Magnetti
K. Doumbia
Substitution
Mali
23 K. Doumbia
R. Del Castillo
Substitution
France
10 R. Del Castillo
L. Ajorque
France
19 L. Ajorque

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Parc des Princes
Capacity :
48583
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jérôme Brisard
Alexis Auger
Steven Torregrossa
Geoffrey Kubler

Statistics

Possession
PSG
64%
B29
36%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
13 Shots 1
89 Dangerous attacks 32
67 Possession 33
13 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 5

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 9
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
17 Dribble Attempts 9
8 Successful Headers 15
20 Throwins 15
11 Goal Attempts 2
9 Successful Dribbles 3
64 Ball Safe 62
4 Substitutions 3
2 Injuries 3
1 Hit Woodwork 0
1 Assists 0

Attacking

142 Attacks 78
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

687 Passes 339
609 Successful Passes 269
89 Successful Passes Percentage 79
51 Long Passes 66
67 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59
34 Successful Long Passes 39
18 Key Passes 2

Defensive

12 Tackles 16
40 Duels Won 38
9 Interceptions 17
2 Saves 5

Build-up

25 Total Crosses 14
3 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

3 Offsides 3
5 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Jérôme Brisard

Starting XI ▼

89
Renato Marin
Renato Marin Goalkeeper
6.24
5
Marquinhos
Marquinhos Defender
6.95
6
Ilya Zabarnyi
Ilya Zabarnyi Defender
6.89
21
Lucas Hernández
Lucas Hernández Defender
6.97
24
Senny Mayulu
Senny Mayulu Defender
7.01
4
Lucas Beraldo
Lucas Beraldo Midfielder
7.19
8
Fabián Ruiz
Fabián Ruiz Midfielder
7.03
7
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
Attacker61'
7.33
27
Pedro Fernández
Pedro Fernández Midfielder
6.81
9
Gonçalo Ramos
Gonçalo Ramos Attacker
6.8
10
Ousmane Dembélé
Ousmane Dembélé
Attacker61'
7.62
19
Kang-in Lee
Kang-in Lee Attacker
7.19
14
Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué
Attacker53'
7.22
29
Bradley Barcola
Bradley Barcola Attacker
7.12
87
João Neves
João Neves
Midfielder69'
7.17
Referee : Jérôme Brisard

Starting XI ▼

30
Grégoire Coudert
Grégoire Coudert Goalkeeper
6.84
4
Junior Diaz
Junior Diaz Defender
6.9
13
Joris Chotard
Joris Chotard Defender
6.88
27
Daouda Guindo
Daouda Guindo Defender
6.6
71
R. Le Guen
R. Le Guen Defender
6.19
7
Junior Dina Ebimbe
Junior Dina Ebimbe Midfielder
6.6
8
Hugo Magnetti
Hugo Magnetti Midfielder
6.8
10
Romain Del Castillo
Romain Del Castillo Midfielder
6.94
17
Mama Baldé
Mama Baldé
Attacker87'
6.76
23
Kamory Doumbia
Kamory Doumbia Midfielder
6.94
14
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Rémy Labeau Lascary
Attacker67'
6.65
24
Lucas Tousart
Lucas Tousart Midfielder
6.6
33
Hamidou Makalou
Hamidou Makalou
Midfielder88'
6.55
19
Ludovic Ajorque
Ludovic Ajorque Attacker
7.17

Events

2ND-HALF
88'
Event
Hamidou Makalou → Lucas Tousart
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Mama Baldé → Romain Del Castillo
6th Substitution
Event
Désiré Doué
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
82'
Event
João Neves → Bradley Barcola
5th Substitution
69'
67'
Event
Rémy Labeau Lascary → Kamory Doumbia
4th Substitution
Event
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia → Fabián Ruiz
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Ousmane Dembélé → Gonçalo Ramos
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Désiré Doué → Kang-in Lee
1st Substitution
53'

Match Commentary

89
Attempt Attempt
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has a shot with his right foot, but it's blocked.
88
Update Update
Hamidou Makalou replaces Lucas Tousart.
87
Update Update
Hamidou Makalou comes on for Lucas Tousart.
87
Attempt Attempt
Senny Mayulu takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Hugo Magnetti takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
82
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Beraldo's right-footed shot is blocked.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Desire Doue scores to make it 1-0.
82
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
82
Attempt Attempt
Joao Neves takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
76
Attempt Attempt
Joao Neves takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue's right-footed shot is blocked.
69
Update Update
Joao Neves comes on for Bradley Barcola.
68
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Update Update
Remy Labeau Lascary comes on for Kamory Doumbia.
65
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue's right-footed shot is blocked.
61
Substitution Substitution
Ousmane Dembele is substituted off for Goncalo Matias Ramos.
61
Update Update
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is on, and Fabian Ruiz Pena is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Senny Mayulu takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Desire Doue takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
53
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Matias Ramos attempts a header but misses the shot.
53
Update Update
Desire Doue replaces Lee Kang In.
45
Attempt Attempt
Senny Mayulu's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Ruiz Pena takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe takes a left-footed shot but misses.
43
Attempt Attempt
Goncalo Matias Ramos takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Fernandez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Raphael Le Guen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
25
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Beraldo's left-footed shot is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Fabian Ruiz Pena takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
21
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Fernandez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Beraldo takes a left-footed shot, but it misses the target.
20
Attempt Attempt
Lee Kang In takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
15
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Fernandez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Hernandez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jerome Brisard.

CONCLUSION

Paris Saint Germain's 1-0 win over Brest validated their status as the superior side, though the slim margin exposed Brest's defensive grit amid 67% possession dominance. Halftime parity at 0-0 gave way to PSG's second-half resolve, delivering a market-aligned result with efficiencies on track. Absent xG insights limit performance depth, yet the lack of red cards preserved unadulterated competition. This structural deviation of 20.8% underscores a resilient Brest showing, challenging PSG more than anticipated. For the champions-elect, converting control into goals sharper will be key ahead, while Brest draws positives from frustrating a giant.

Paris Saint Germain vs Brest preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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