Palermo vs Mantova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Fri, 6 Mar - 2:06 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
2 Winner 1
Mantova MAN
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:06 PM
Joel Pohjanpalo - 38'
Filippo Ranocchia - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
Tommaso Marras - 68' (P)
Alexis Blin 67' Second yellow card
Alexis Blin 67' Red Card
|
Second yellow card Federico Zuccon 32'

CONTEXT

The match between Palermo and Mantova has finished, with Palermo securing a 2-1 full-time victory over the visitors. The home side established control early, building a comfortable 2-0 lead by half-time before holding out for the win. This outcome aligned exactly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the stronger Palermo side with a 62.6% win probability, compared to just 15.1% for Mantova and 22.4% for a draw. Despite winning as expected, Palermo still experienced a significant performance deviation level of 37.4%. In terms of match flow, Palermo maintained a slight edge with 54% possession, leaving Mantova with 46% of the ball. Expected goals (xG) data was completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the underlying shot quality. However, the overall finishing was in line with the expected efficiency shifts for both clubs. The match was ultimately defined by extreme disciplinary issues, featuring three total dismissals. Palermo received two red cards and Mantova received one, causing massive red card distortion in the second half. Despite finishing with nine men, Palermo successfully protected their early advantage to claim the points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Ayroldi

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Fontemurato

1st Assistant

G. Zanellati

2nd Assistant

A. Iannello

4th Official

Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Mantova F. Modesto
F. Modesto
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: D
Empoli Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Modena Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Carrarese Rank: D
Sampdoria Rank: W
Catanzaro Rank: L
Reggiana Rank: L
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Pescara Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
62.57%
Draw
22.35%
Away Mantova
15.08%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.29
32.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Mantova
Power Score
64.29
32.14
League Position
4
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Mantova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Mantova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Mantova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.13
18.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.04
37.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palermo +1.82 Efficiency Index
vs
Mantova -1.82 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Mantova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Mantova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo Mantova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo Mantova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Mantova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
4 matches
Mantova MAN Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
3
Draws
3
0
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
5
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:18:53+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 06, 2026, 02:06 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity :
36365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giovanni Ayroldi
Domenico Fontemurato
Glauco Zanellati
Alfredo Iannello

Statistics

Possession
PAL
55%
MAN
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
17 Shots 7
61 Dangerous attacks 26
54 Possession 46
9 Corners 2
12 Free kicks 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
1 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 9
2 Assists 0
22 Throwins 18
1 Successful Dribbles 4
8 Dribble Attempts 12
13 Successful Dribbles Percentage 33
72 Ball Safe 79
11 Goal Attempts 5
5 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

90 Attacks 68
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 79
297 Successful Passes 252
364 Passes 321
26 Successful Long Passes 13
58 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
45 Long Passes 49
14 Key Passes 2

Defensive

15 Tackles 14
2 Saves 3
7 Interceptions 4

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 13
10 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

22 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 4

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
90+2'
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi → Niccolò Pierozzi
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Patryk Peda
10th Substitution
85'
Event
Patryk Peda
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Dennis Johnsen → Jérémy Le Douaron
7th Substitution
77'
77'
Event
Leonardo Mancuso → Alessio Castellini
8th Substitution
77'
Event
Nicolò Buso → Maat Daniel Caprini
6th Substitution
Event
Niccolò Pierozzi
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
75'
71'
Event
Nicolò Radaelli
Simulation / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Alessio Castellini
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Claudio Gomes → Antonio Palumbo
5th Substitution
69'
68'
Event
Tommaso Marras
Left foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Alexis Blin
2nd Yellow/red Card
67'
Event
Alexis Blin
Professional handball / 1st Redcard
67'
54'
Event
Tommaso Maggioni → Ali Dembélé
3rd Substitution
54'
Event
Tommaso Marras → Davis Mensah
4th Substitution
Event
Alexis Blin → Filippo Ranocchia
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Flavio Paoletti → Davide Bragantini
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
38'
32'
Event
Federico Zuccon
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Filippo Ranocchia
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
19'
Event
8th Yellowcard
19'
17'
Event
Federico Zuccon
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'
Event
Var
Event
Filippo Ranocchia
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Palermo vs Mantova preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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