Palermo vs Juve Stabia Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Tue, 17 Mar - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
2 – 2
Juve Stabia JUV
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 6:00 PM
Mattia Bani - 65'
Joel Pohjanpalo - 60' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Nicola Mosti - 73'
Giuseppe Leone - 11' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Palermo 2–2 Juve Stabia. The match ended in a draw. Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Juve Stabia I. Abate
I. Abate
1.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.48
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: 42 L
Südtirol Rank: 57 W
Virtus Entella Rank: 48 W
Sampdoria Rank: 54 D
Empoli Rank: 57 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sampdoria Rank: 51 D
Avellino Rank: 50 D
Modena Rank: 59 L
Monza Rank: 65 L
Empoli Rank: 57 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 50 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
55.92%
Draw
27.49%
Away Juve Stabia
16.59%

Movement

Changes since opening
Palermo
+0.87%
Draw
-0.36%
Juve Stabia
-0.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.55
54.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Juve Stabia
Power Score
62.55
54.21
League Position
4
7
Global Rank
378
630

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Juve Stabia — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Juve Stabia

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Juve Stabia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.60
18.37
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.37
43.60
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palermo +2.40 Efficiency Index
vs
Juve Stabia -2.40 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Juve Stabia
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Juve Stabia
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo Juve Stabia
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo Juve Stabia
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Juve Stabia
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
6 matches
Juve Stabia JUV Away
Match Record
4
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
4
Goals
10
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
10
+7
Goal Difference
-7

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:02:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-1-1
Pitch
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
B. Bereszyński
Substitution
Poland
19 B. Bereszyński
M. Bani
Italy
13 (C) M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni
Substitution
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
N. Pierozzi
Substitution
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
J. Segre
Substitution
Italy
8 J. Segre
A. Blin
Substitution
France
28 A. Blin
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
A. Palumbo
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
D. Johnsen
Norway
7 D. Johnsen
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo
Pitch
A. Confente
Italy
1 A. Confente
C. Dalle Mura
Substitution
Italy
14 C. Dalle Mura
A. Giorgini
Italy
33 A. Giorgini
S. Diakite
Substitution
France
46 S. Diakite
A. Cacciamani
77 A. Cacciamani
C. Pierobon
Substitution
Italy
10 C. Pierobon
G. Leone
Italy
55 G. Leone
N. Mosti
Italy
98 (C) N. Mosti
M. Ricciardi
Substitution
Italy
2 M. Ricciardi
E. Torrasi
Substitution
Italy
28 E. Torrasi
A. Okoro
Nigeria
90 A. Okoro

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 17, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity :
36365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Federico Dionisi

Statistics

Possession
PAL
57%
JUV
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 1
16 Shots 5
77 Dangerous attacks 18
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 15
4 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

0 Injuries 1
56 Ball Safe 91
13 Goal Attempts 6
2 Hit Woodwork 0
2 Goal Kicks 14
15 Throwins 13
15 Dribble Attempts 12
27 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
1 Penalties 1
4 Successful Dribbles 6
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

121 Attacks 62
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

85 Successful Passes Percentage 80
466 Passes 366
35 Long Passes 48
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 21
395 Successful Passes 293
15 Successful Long Passes 10
13 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Interceptions 6
11 Tackles 17
4 Saves 4

Build-up

43 Total Crosses 11
14 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

0 Offsides 5
16 Fouls 12

Lineup

Referee : Federico Dionisi

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
6.55
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani (C) Defender
8.15
19
Bartosz Bereszyński
Bartosz Bereszyński Defender
6.39
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron
Attacker46'
6.42
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
6.67
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani
Defender84'
6.47
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
7.46
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
7.15
6
Claudio Gomes
Claudio Gomes
Midfielder84'
6.65
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder
6.85
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder85'
6.34
28
Alexis Blin
Alexis Blin Midfielder
6.65
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto
Midfielder54'
6.25
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Attacker
7.04
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen Attacker
6.79
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
6.78
Referee : Federico Dionisi

Starting XI ▼

1
Alessandro Confente
Alessandro Confente Goalkeeper
6.69
14
Christian Dalle Mura
Christian Dalle Mura Defender
6.49
6
Marco Bellich
Marco Bellich
Defender81'
6.65
33
Andrea Giorgini
Andrea Giorgini Defender
6.66
46
Salim Diakité
Salim Diakité Defender
6.46
13
Marco Varnier
Marco Varnier
Defender62'
6.4
2
Manuel Ricciardi
Manuel Ricciardi Midfielder
6.76
24
Lorenzo Carissoni
Lorenzo Carissoni
Defender61'
6.29
10
Christian Pierobon
Christian Pierobon Midfielder
6.73
21
Sheriff Kassama
Sheriff Kassama
Defender88'
6.39
55
Giuseppe Leone
Giuseppe Leone Midfielder
7.48
77
Alessio Cacciamani
Alessio Cacciamani Midfielder
6.51
98
Nicola Mosti
Nicola Mosti (C) Midfielder
7.65
28
Emanuele Torrasi
Emanuele Torrasi Attacker
6.61
29
Omar Correia
Omar Correia
Defender62'
6.3
90
Alvin Okoro
Alvin Okoro Attacker
7.09

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Sheriff Kassama
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Sheriff Kassama → Christian Pierobon
10th Substitution
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Niccolò Pierozzi
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Claudio Gomes → Jacopo Segre
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Pietro Ceccaroni
8th Substitution
84'
81'
Event
Marco Bellich → Christian Dalle Mura
6th Substitution
Event
Rui Modesto
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
76'
73'
Event
Nicola Mosti
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Mattia Bani
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
71'
Event
Mattia Bani
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
65'
63'
Event
11th Yellowcard
63'
Event
Marco Varnier
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
62'
Event
Omar Correia → Emanuele Torrasi
4th Substitution
62'
Event
Marco Varnier → Salim Diakité
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Lorenzo Carissoni → Manuel Ricciardi
3rd Substitution
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
60'
60'
Event
Alessandro Confente
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Mattia Bani
Penalty awarded
59'
56'
Event
Andrea Giorgini
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Rui Modesto → Alexis Blin
2nd Substitution
54'
Event
Jérémy Le Douaron → Bartosz Bereszyński
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
44'
Event
10th Yellowcard
44'
Event
Emanuele Torrasi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
11'
Event
Giuseppe Leone
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Jesse Joronen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
9'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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