Palermo vs Cesena Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Sat, 18 Apr - 3:15 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
2 Winner 0
Cesena CES
Full Time Sat, 18 Apr 3:15 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Joel Pohjanpalo - 71', 9'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Palermo claimed a convincing 2-0 home win over Cesena, leading 1-0 at halftime despite possessing the ball just 39% of the time to Cesena's 61%. The Rosaneri capitalized on their limited chances with clinical finishing, while Cesena's dominance failed to yield goals, highlighting Palermo's defensive resilience and opportunistic attack. As the pre-identified stronger team, Palermo's result marked a significant 39.9% structural deviation, underscoring their ability to exceed expectations in this Serie B clash. No red cards altered proceedings, and second-half play saw no notable adjustments. The outcome stayed in line with efficiency norms and aligned with pre-match market views, absent xG data for deeper analysis. Palermo's efficiency proved decisive in securing the clean-sheet triumph.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo's victory showed a significant 39.9% deviation favoring the home team.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable for alignment assessment.
  • Market alignment: Result aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable due to missing data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or knockout ties affected the outcome.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards caused distortion to match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

G. Collu

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Bitonti

2nd Assistant

Gioiele Iacobellis

4th Official

F. Luciani

1st Assistant

Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Cesena A. Cole
A. Cole
1.85
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.22
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: D
Avellino Rank: W
Calcio Padova Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Monza Rank: L
Carrarese Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: D
Catanzaro Rank: W
Mantova Rank: L
Frosinone Rank: D
Modena Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 8 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
60.11%
Draw
23.23%
Away Cesena
16.66%

Movement

Changes since opening
Palermo
-37.75%
Draw
+21.31%
Cesena
+16.44%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
31.72
21.18
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Cesena
Power Score
31.72
21.18
League Position
4
8
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Cesena — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Cesena

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cesena

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.64
25.74
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.74
50.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palermo +2.37 Efficiency Index
vs
Cesena -2.37 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Cesena
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cesena
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo Cesena
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo Cesena
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Cesena
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Palermo
vs
Cesena
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Palermo Cesena
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Palermo 0.31
Cesena 0.41
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Palermo Cesena
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Palermo 0.00
Cesena 0.04
Palermo
Cesena
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAL had peak pressure around 30'.
  • PAL started the game with stronger pressure.
PAL Pressure CES Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAL reached the top pressure at 30' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
13 matches
Cesena CES Away
Match Record
3
Wins
2
8
Draws
8
2
Losses
3
Goals
13
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
13
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-19T00:05:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Gomis
Senegal
1 A. Gomis
N. Pierozzi
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
M. Bani
Italy
13 M. Bani
P. Ceccaroni
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
R. Muati Modesto
Substitution
Angola
18 R. Muati Modesto
J. Segre
Substitution
Italy
8 J. Segre
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
J. Le Douaron
Substitution
France
21 J. Le Douaron
A. Palumbo
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
J. Pohjanpalo
Substitution
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo
Pitch
J. Klinsmann
United States
33 J. Klinsmann
T. Corazza
Substitution
Italy
27 T. Corazza
M. Piacentini
Italy
26 M. Piacentini
G. Zaro
Italy
19 G. Zaro
A. Ciofi
Italy
15 A. Ciofi
D. Bisoli
Italy
25 D. Bisoli
M. Castagnetti
Substitution
Italy
4 M. Castagnetti
M. Olivieri
Substitution
Italy
32 M. Olivieri
T. Berti
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Berti
C. Shpendi
Albania
9 C. Shpendi
A. Cerri
Substitution
Italy
7 A. Cerri

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 18, 2026, 03:15 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity :
36365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Giuseppe Collu
Paolo Bitonti
Gioiele Iacobellis
Francesco Luciani

Statistics

Possession
PAL
43%
CES
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 3
3 Shots 5
55 Dangerous attacks 34
39 Possession 61
6 Corners 6
5 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

4 Injuries 1
2 Assists 0
63 Successful Dribbles Percentage 80
9 Goal Kicks 12
8 Dribble Attempts 10
15 Throwins 13
5 Successful Dribbles 8
62 Ball Safe 71
13 Goal Attempts 8
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

81 Attacks 82
2 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

318 Successful Passes 547
368 Passes 611
48 Long Passes 36
24 Successful Long Passes 19
17 Key Passes 13
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 53
86 Successful Passes Percentage 90

Defensive

9 Interceptions 7
30 Duels Won 47
14 Tackles 12
3 Saves 1

Build-up

28 Total Crosses 17
9 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

14 Fouls 5
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Giuseppe Collu

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfred Gomis
Alfred Gomis Goalkeeper
6.42
13
Mattia Bani
Mattia Bani Defender
7.21
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Defender
6.91
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
7.03
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Midfielder
7.09
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
6.86
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder80'
6.59
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
7.3
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto Midfielder
5.97
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani
Defender80'
6.95
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Attacker
7.18
17
Samuel Giovane
Samuel Giovane
Midfielder74'
6.43
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
2
7.18
31
Giacomo Corona
Giacomo Corona
Attacker88'
6.58
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker
6.72
11
Emmanuel Gyasi
Emmanuel Gyasi
Defender74'
6.56
Referee : Giuseppe Collu

Starting XI ▼

33
Jonathan Klinsmann
Jonathan Klinsmann Goalkeeper
6.66
15
Andrea Ciofi
Andrea Ciofi Defender
6.8
19
Giovanni Zaro
Giovanni Zaro Defender
7.04
26
Matteo Piacentini
Matteo Piacentini Defender
6.65
27
Tommaso Corazza
Tommaso Corazza Defender
6.76
99
Gianluca Frabotta
Gianluca Frabotta
Defender72'
6.94
4
Michele Castagnetti
Michele Castagnetti Midfielder
6.9
8
Gaetano Castrovilli
Gaetano Castrovilli
Midfielder72'
6.47
9
Cristian Shpendi
Cristian Shpendi Midfielder
6.73
14
Tommaso Berti
Tommaso Berti Midfielder
7.04
6
Tommaso Arrigoni
Tommaso Arrigoni
Midfielder90'
6.49
25
Dimitri Bisoli
Dimitri Bisoli Midfielder
6.8
32
Marco Olivieri
Marco Olivieri Midfielder
6.67
22
Giacomo Vrioni
Giacomo Vrioni
Attacker77'
6.54
7
Alberto Cerri
Alberto Cerri Attacker
7.09
11
Riccardo Ciervo
Riccardo Ciervo
Attacker72'
6.88

Events

2ND-HALF
90'
Event
Tommaso Arrigoni → Tommaso Berti
10th Substitution
Event
Giacomo Corona → Joel Pohjanpalo
9th Substitution
88'
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Rui Modesto
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Jacopo Segre
8th Substitution
80'
77'
Event
Giacomo Vrioni → Marco Olivieri
6th Substitution
Event
Samuel Giovane → Antonio Palumbo
4th Substitution
74'
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi → Jérémy Le Douaron
5th Substitution
74'
72'
Event
Gaetano Castrovilli → Michele Castagnetti
1st Substitution
72'
Event
Riccardo Ciervo → Alberto Cerri
2nd Substitution
72'
Event
Gianluca Frabotta → Tommaso Corazza
3rd Substitution
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Header / 2nd Goal
71'
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Alberto Cerri
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
9'

CONCLUSION

Palermo's 2-0 win over Cesena demonstrated superior efficiency despite lower possession, converting chances while maintaining a clean sheet. This significant deviation reinforced their status as the stronger side, with the result matching pre-match market alignment and showing no disruptive events or red cards. Absent xG metrics, the performance highlighted clinical execution and defensive solidity. Palermo's triumph boosts confidence, positioning them well in the standings as they continue to outperform through smart play and resilience.

Palermo vs Cesena preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Serie B, Italy View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ