Palermo vs Catanzaro Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Renzo Barbera Wed, 20 May - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Palermo PAL
2 Winner 0
Catanzaro CAT
Full Time Wed, 20 May 6:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 2 of 2 Aggregate : 2 - 3
Rui Modesto - 89'
Joel Pohjanpalo - 3'
Goal
|
Niccolò Pierozzi 90+3' Red Card
Antonio Palumbo 90+6' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Palermo 2–0 Catanzaro. The result saw Palermo take the points. Palermo showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 53%–47%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo showed minimal structural deviation of 2.6 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with overall team performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be confirmed due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true as the match result matched pre-match indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not detailed given the absence of computed values.
  • Event impact: Event impact centered on the second half where the tie progressed to a 2-0 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion affected play after Palermo received two dismissals during the match.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Marcenaro

Italy 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Scatragli

1st Assistant

Italy

D. Palermo

2nd Assistant

Italy

G. Collu

4th Official

Italy

League averages

Serie B Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 27.98
Yellow cards / match 4.14
Red cards / match 0.31
Penalties / match 0.28
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.79
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 60 L
Venezia Rank: 70 L
Catanzaro Rank: 61 W
Reggiana Rank: 48 D
Cesena Rank: 52 W
Frosinone Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Palermo Rank: 64 W
Avellino Rank: 54 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 L
Palermo Rank: 64 L
Spezia Rank: 52 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Palermo
97.43%
Draw
2.38%
Away Catanzaro
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.1
61.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Palermo
Catanzaro
Power Score
64.1
61.07
League Position
4
5
Global Rank
359
452

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.34
27.87
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.87
39.34
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Palermo +1.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Catanzaro -1.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Catanzaro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Palermo Catanzaro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Palermo Catanzaro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Palermo
Catanzaro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Palermo
vs
Catanzaro
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Palermo Catanzaro
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Palermo 0.22
Catanzaro 0.55
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Palermo Catanzaro
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Palermo 0.00
Catanzaro 0.03
Palermo
Catanzaro
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • PAL had peak pressure around 67'.
  • PAL started the game with stronger pressure.
PAL Pressure CAT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: PAL reached the top pressure at 67' (91.09).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home
7 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
9
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-21T00:02:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Joronen
Finland
66 J. Joronen
N. Pierozzi
Italy
27 N. Pierozzi
P. Peda
Substitution
Poland
29 P. Peda
P. Ceccaroni
Substitution
Italy
32 P. Ceccaroni
T. Augello
Italy
3 T. Augello
J. Segre
Substitution
Italy
8 J. Segre
A. Palumbo
Italy
5 A. Palumbo
F. Ranocchia
Italy
10 F. Ranocchia
J. Le Douaron
Substitution
France
21 J. Le Douaron
J. Pohjanpalo
Finland
20 J. Pohjanpalo
D. Johnsen
Substitution
Norway
7 D. Johnsen
Pitch
M. Pigliacelli
Italy
22 M. Pigliacelli
N. Brighenti
Italy
23 N. Brighenti
M. Antonini Lui
Brazil
4 M. Antonini Lui
T. Cassandro
Italy
84 T. Cassandro
G. Alesi
Substitution
Italy
30 G. Alesi
S. Pontisso
Italy
20 S. Pontisso
J. Petriccione
Substitution
Italy
10 J. Petriccione
C. Favasuli
Substitution
Italy
27 C. Favasuli
P. Iemmello
Substitution
Italy
9 P. Iemmello
M. Liberali
Substitution
Italy
14 M. Liberali
F. Pittarello
Italy
8 F. Pittarello

General Information

Date & Time :
May 20, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Semi Finals · Leg 2 of 2 · Aggregate : 2 - 3
Stadium :
Stadio Renzo Barbera
Capacity :
36365
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Matteo Marcenaro
Marco Scatragli
Domenico Palermo
Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession
PAL
53%
CAT
47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
4 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 1
77 Dangerous attacks 22
53 Possession 47
5 Corners 1
11 Free kicks 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 5
14 Dribble Attempts 12
29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
20 Throwins 17
6 Goal Kicks 12
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0
60 Ball Safe 74
2 Injuries 3
12 Goal Attempts 9

Attacking

86 Attacks 74
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

254 Successful Passes 234
52 Long Passes 61
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
77 Successful Passes Percentage 76
331 Passes 307
10 Key Passes 11
23 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

17 Tackles 21
4 Saves 4
51 Duels Won 68
6 Interceptions 7

Build-up

27 Total Crosses 8
9 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

28 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

66
Jesse Joronen
Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper
3
Tommaso Augello
Tommaso Augello Defender
27
Niccolò Pierozzi
Niccolò Pierozzi Defender
29
Patryk Peda
Patryk Peda Defender
96
Giangiacomo Magnani
Giangiacomo Magnani
Defender16'
32
Pietro Ceccaroni
Pietro Ceccaroni Defender
31
Giacomo Corona
Giacomo Corona
Attacker76'
5
Antonio Palumbo
Antonio Palumbo Midfielder
8
Jacopo Segre
Jacopo Segre Midfielder
18
Rui Modesto
Rui Modesto
Midfielder50'
10
Filippo Ranocchia
Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder
7
Dennis Johnsen
Dennis Johnsen Attacker
11
Emmanuel Gyasi
Emmanuel Gyasi
Defender75'
20
Joel Pohjanpalo
Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker
21
Jérémy Le Douaron
Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker
14
Aljosa Vasic
Aljosa Vasic
Midfielder46'
Referee : Matteo Marcenaro

Starting XI ▼

22
Mirko Pigliacelli
Mirko Pigliacelli Goalkeeper
4
Matias Antonini
Matias Antonini Defender
23
Nicolò Brighenti
Nicolò Brighenti Defender
84
Tommaso Cassandro
Tommaso Cassandro Defender
10
Jacopo Petriccione
Jacopo Petriccione Midfielder
32
Fabio Rispoli
Fabio Rispoli
Midfielder78'
20
Simone Pontisso
Simone Pontisso Midfielder
27
Costantino Favasuli
Costantino Favasuli Midfielder
5
Ervin Bashi
Ervin Bashi
Defender87'
30
Gabriele Alesi
Gabriele Alesi Midfielder
62
Ruggero Frosinini
Ruggero Frosinini
Defender78'
8
Filippo Pittarello
Filippo Pittarello Attacker
9
Pietro Iemmello
Pietro Iemmello Attacker
21
Marco Pompetti
Marco Pompetti
Midfielder61'
14
Mattia Liberali
Mattia Liberali Attacker
94
Federico Di Francesco
Federico Di Francesco
Attacker46'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Antonio Palumbo
Argument / 2nd Redcard
90+6'
90+5'
Event
Simone Pontisso
6th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Federico Di Francesco
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Niccolò Pierozzi
Foul / 1st Redcard
90+3'
Event
Rui Modesto
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
89'
87'
Event
Ervin Bashi → Costantino Favasuli
10th Substitution
78'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Gabriele Alesi
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Fabio Rispoli → Jacopo Petriccione
9th Substitution
Event
Giacomo Corona → Pietro Ceccaroni
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Emmanuel Gyasi → Dennis Johnsen
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Aljosa Vasic
Persistent fouling / 4th Yellowcard
65'
61'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Pietro Iemmello
5th Substitution
Event
Rui Modesto → Jacopo Segre
4th Substitution
50'
49'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Aljosa Vasic → Jérémy Le Douaron
3rd Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Federico Di Francesco → Mattia Liberali
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Jacopo Segre
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+4'
Event
Dennis Johnsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
20'
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Patryk Peda
1st Substitution
16'
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Header / 1st Goal
3'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Simone Pontisso receives a yellow card.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Federico Di Francesco receives a yellow card.
90
Red Card Red Card Important
Niccolo Pierozzi receives a red card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rui Modesto scores, making it 2-0.
89
Attempt Attempt
Rui Modesto scores with a right-footed shot.
87
Update Update
Ervin Bashi comes on for Costantino Favasuli.
85
Attempt Attempt
Aljosa Vasic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
81
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
79
Update Update
Emmanuel Gyasi's header is blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
Rui Modesto's right-footed shot is blocked.
78
Substitution Substitution
Ruggero Frosinini is substituted for Gabriele Alesi.
78
Update Update
Fabio Rispoli replaces Jacopo Petriccione.
76
Update Update
Emmanuel Gyasi is on, and Dennis Johnsen is off.
75
Attempt Attempt
Costantino Favasuli takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Substitution Substitution
Giacomo Corona is substituted on for Pietro Ceccaroni.
74
Attempt Attempt
Tommaso Cassandro takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Palumbo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aljosa Vasic receives a yellow card.
63
Attempt Attempt
Federico Di Francesco takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
Marco Pompetti is on, and Pietro Iemmello is off.
59
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
58
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Aljosa Vasic attempted a header but missed the shot.
55
Attempt Attempt
Aljosa Vasic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Ranocchia takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Aljosa Vasic attempts a header but misses the shot.
50
Update Update
Rui Modesto comes on for Jacopo Segre.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Filippo Pittarello receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Palumbo takes a right-footed shot, but it hits the post.
46
Update Update
Federico Di Francesco comes on for Mattia Liberali.
46
Update Update
Aljosa Vasic replaces Jeremy Le Douaron.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacopo Segre receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Attempt Attempt
Joel Pohjanpalo attempts a header but misses the shot.
35
Attempt Attempt
Dennis Johnsen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Iemmello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Ranocchia takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali's left-footed shot is blocked.
21
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dennis Johnsen receives a yellow card.
16
Update Update
Giangiacomo Magnani is on, and Patryk Peda is off.
11
Attempt Attempt
Simone Pontisso takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Mattia Liberali takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
8
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Ranocchia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Pietro Iemmello takes a right-footed shot but misses.
5
Attempt Attempt
Filippo Pittarello takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Joel Pohjanpalo scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Antonio Palumbo.
3
Update Update
Joel Pohjanpalo scores with a header.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Matteo Marcenaro.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Palermo 2-0 Catanzaro. Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Palermo vs Catanzaro preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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