Palermo vs Avellino Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy

Stadio Renzo Barbera Sun, 5 Apr - 5:30 PM

Serie B

Palermo PAL

Avellino AVE

Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 5:30 PM

Round 33 Regular Season

Filippo Ranocchia - 82'

Antonio Palumbo - 12'

Armando Izzo 43'

CONTEXT

The match between Palermo and Avellino has officially finished, with Palermo securing a 2-0 full-time victory after taking a 1-0 lead into the halftime break. This result aligned perfectly with the pre-match market, which heavily favored the stronger home side with a 59.4% win probability compared to Avellino's slim 16.1% chance. By securing the full three points, Palermo produced a significant positive deviation of 40.6% against baseline expectations. Play was remarkably balanced in terms of ball control, with Palermo holding a very narrow possession advantage of 51% to Avellino's 49%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture—making it impossible to evaluate outcome consistency based on exact shot quality—Palermo's overall efficiency shift was firmly in line with match expectations. A critical defining event in the fixture was a red card issued to Avellino, reducing the trailing visitors to ten men. This crucial disciplinary issue created a notable red card distortion during the second half, severely disrupting any realistic chance of an away comeback and cementing Palermo's comfortable home triumph.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

V. Crezzini

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

N. Dorillo

4th Official

L. Giuggioli

1st Assistant

E. Scarpa

2nd Assistant

F. Inzaghi

D. Ballardini

1.84

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.08

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

5 - 1 - 0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Palermo

59.42%

Draw

24.47%

Avellino

16.11%

Team Power Ranking

63.71

49.31

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Palermo

Avellino

Power Score

63.71

49.31

League Position

Global Rank

349

732

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score

Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Palermo Avellino

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Palermo ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Avellino

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

22.55

13.98

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

13.98

22.55

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Palermo +0.82 Efficiency Index

Avellino -0.82 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Palermo

Avellino

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Palermo ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Avellino

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Palermo Avellino

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Palermo Avellino

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Palermo

Avellino

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Palermo

Avellino

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Palermo Avellino

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Palermo Avellino

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Palermo

Avellino

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 6 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Palermo PAL Home

6 matches

Avellino AVE Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+10

Goal Difference

-10

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:06:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2

Match Formation 4-3-1-2

66 J. Joronen

29 P. Peda

13 M. Bani

32 P. Ceccaroni

27 N. Pierozzi

8 J. Segre

10 F. Ranocchia

3 T. Augello

5 A. Palumbo

21 J. Le Douaron

20 J. Pohjanpalo

30 G. Daffara

3 M. Sala

4 A. Izzo

44 L. Šimić

29 T. Cancellotti

39 M. Besaggio

6 L. Palmiero

24 D. Sounas

20 M. Palumbo

14 T. Biasci

9 C. Patierno

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 05, 2026, 05:30 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Serie B, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadio Renzo Barbera

Capacity :

36365

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Nicolò Dorillo

Valerio Crezzini

Lorenzo Giuggioli

Eugenio Scarpa

Statistics

Possession

PAL

53%

AVE

47%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0

2 Big Chances Created 0

7 Shots 2

30 Dangerous attacks 37

51 Possession 49

1 Corners 0

15 Free kicks 14

2 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

23 Throwins 21

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57

4 Goal Kicks 7

2 Assists 0

9 Successful Dribbles 8

18 Dribble Attempts 14

129 Ball Safe 97

10 Goal Attempts 2

5 Substitutions 5

3 Injuries 1

Attacking

119 Attacks 98

1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

78 Successful Passes Percentage 75

405 Passes 385

317 Successful Passes 287

58 Long Passes 51

7 Key Passes 4

25 Successful Long Passes 15

43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

14 Tackles 11

62 Duels Won 58

10 Interceptions 7

1 Saves 1

Build-up

16 Total Crosses 14

3 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

14 Fouls 15

2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Manager ▼

F. Inzaghi Coach

Starting XI ▼

Jesse Joronen Goalkeeper

Alfred Gomis

Goalkeeper57'

Mattia Bani Defender

Giangiacomo Magnani

Defender85'

Patryk Peda Defender

Pietro Ceccaroni Defender

Tommaso Augello Midfielder

Jacopo Segre Midfielder

Samuel Giovane

Midfielder72'

Filippo Ranocchia Midfielder

Niccolò Pierozzi Midfielder

Emmanuel Gyasi

Defender46'

Antonio Palumbo Attacker

Aljosa Vasic

Midfielder71'

Joel Pohjanpalo Attacker

Jérémy Le Douaron Attacker

Substitutes ▼

Emmanuel Gyasi

Defender46'

Alfred Gomis

Goalkeeper57'

Aljosa Vasic

Midfielder71'

Samuel Giovane

Midfielder72'

Giangiacomo Magnani

Defender85'

Bench ▼

Francesco Di Bartolo Goalkeeper

Bartosz Bereszyński Defender

Davide Veroli Defender

Claudio Gomes Midfielder

Alexis Blin Midfielder

Referee : Valerio Crezzini