Oxford United vs Watford Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Kassam Stadium Sat, 11 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Oxford United OXF
2 Winner 0
Watford WAT
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 42 Regular Season
Mark Harris - 90+2'
Myles Peart-Harris - 19'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Oxford United and Watford is finished, with Oxford United winning 1-0 at full time after leading 1-0 at half-time. This result marked a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, in which Oxford United were given a 40.1 percent chance of victory against Watford’s 31.2 percent. Oxford United ultimately proved the stronger side and claimed all three points in a performance that exceeded projections. Watford enjoyed the majority of possession at 66 percent to Oxford United’s 34 percent, yet failed to convert their territorial advantage into clear opportunities. No expected goals data is available for either side, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with the final scoreline. The outcome proved consistent with the broader pre-match projection, and no red cards or major disciplinary events altered the flow of play. Oxford United’s first-half goal proved decisive as they defended resolutely in the second period to secure the narrow victory. The result confirmed them as the more effective team on the day despite their lower share of the ball.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Oxford United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Martin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Scholes

1st Assistant

B. Gill

2nd Assistant

C. Hicks

4th Official

Oxford United M. Bloomfield
M. Bloomfield
VS
Watford E. Still
E. Still
1.09
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Portsmouth Rank: D
Hull City Rank: D
Southampton Rank: L
Charlton Athletic Rank: D
Blackburn Rovers Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlton Athletic Rank: D
Queens Park Rangers Rank: L
Leicester City Rank: D
Wrexham Rank: W
Stoke City Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Oxford United
40.14%
Draw
28.62%
Away Watford
31.24%

Movement

Changes since opening
Oxford United
-50.71%
Draw
+19.95%
Watford
+30.77%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.34
20.47
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Oxford United
Watford
Power Score
22.34
20.47
League Position
22
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Oxford United — Opponent-weighted form score
Watford — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Oxford United Watford

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Oxford United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Watford

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Oxford United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Watford
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
50.15
21.29
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
21.29
50.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Oxford United +2.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Watford -2.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Oxford United
Watford
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Oxford United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Watford
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Oxford United Watford
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Oxford United Watford
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Oxford United
Watford
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Oxford United
vs
Watford
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Oxford United Watford
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Oxford United 0.37
Watford 0.29
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Oxford United Watford
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Oxford United 0.00
Watford 0.05
Oxford United
Watford
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OXF had peak pressure around 62'.
  • WAT started the game with stronger pressure.
OXF Pressure WAT Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OXF reached the top pressure at 62' (88.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Oxford United OXF Home
4 matches
Watford WAT Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
1
Draws
1
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
3
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:07:33+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
J. Cumming
England
1 J. Cumming
S. Long
England
2 S. Long
M. Helik
Poland
6 M. Helik
C. Brown
England
3 C. Brown
B. Spencer
Northern Ireland
15 B. Spencer
Y. Konak
Substitution
Turkey
5 Y. Konak
C. Brannagan
England
8 C. Brannagan
S. Mills
England
17 S. Mills
J. Donley
Substitution
Northern Ireland
33 J. Donley
M. Peart-Harris
Substitution
England
44 M. Peart-Harris
W. Lankshear
Substitution
England
27 W. Lankshear
Pitch
E. Selvik
Norway
1 E. Selvik
J. Abankwah
Republic of Ireland
25 J. Abankwah
S. Goglichidze
Substitution
Georgia
3 S. Goglichidze
M. Pollock
England
6 M. Pollock
J. Pétris
Substitution
France
29 J. Pétris
G. Chakvetadze
Substitution
Georgia
8 G. Chakvetadze
I. Louza
Morocco
10 I. Louza
N. Mendy
Substitution
Senegal
23 N. Mendy
N. Irankunda
Australia
66 N. Irankunda
E. Kayembe
DR Congo
39 E. Kayembe
L. Kjerrumgaard
Substitution
Denmark
9 L. Kjerrumgaard

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 11, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 42 · Regular Season
Stadium :
The Kassam Stadium
Capacity :
12500
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Mark Scholes
Bhupinder Gill
Craig Hicks
Stephen Martin

Statistics

Possession
OXF
39%
WAT
61%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 5
41 Dangerous attacks 41
34 Possession 66
10 Corners 5
11 Free kicks 8
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 11
20 Throwins 22
69 Ball Safe 91
13 Dribble Attempts 18
13 Goal Kicks 7
23 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
22 Successful Headers 16
11 Goal Attempts 8
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

69 Attacks 100
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

127 Successful Passes 345
60 Successful Passes Percentage 79
22 Successful Long Passes 22
212 Passes 437
37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
60 Long Passes 59
9 Key Passes 7

Defensive

17 Tackles 18
20 Interceptions 6
3 Saves 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
20 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

8 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

1
Jamie Cumming
Jamie Cumming Goalkeeper
2
Sam Long
Sam Long Defender
3
Ciaron Maurice Brown
Ciaron Maurice Brown Defender
6
Michal Helik
Michal Helik Defender
15
Brodie Gilmore Spencer
Brodie Gilmore Spencer Defender
5
Yunus Konak
Yunus Konak Midfielder
4
Will Vaulks
Will Vaulks
Midfielder90+3'
8
Cameron Brannagan
Cameron Brannagan Midfielder
17
Stanley Mills
Stanley Mills Midfielder
33
Jamie Paul Donley
Jamie Paul Donley Midfielder
9
Mark Harris
Mark Harris
Attacker87'
44
Myles Peart-Harris
Myles Peart-Harris Midfielder
24
Hidde ter Avest
Hidde ter Avest
Defender78'
27
Will Lankshear
Will Lankshear Attacker
11
Ole Romeny
Ole Romeny
Attacker90+4'
Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

1
Egil Selvik
Egil Selvik Goalkeeper
3
Saba Goglichidze
Saba Goglichidze Defender
7
Tom Ince
Tom Ince
Midfielder89'
6
Mattie Pollock
Mattie Pollock Defender
25
James Abankwah
James Abankwah Defender
29
Jérémy Pétris
Jérémy Pétris Defender
4
Kévin Keben
Kévin Keben
Defender61'
8
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Giorgi Chakvetadze Midfielder
42
Othmane Maamma
Othmane Maamma
Attacker68'
10
Imrân Louza
Imrân Louza Midfielder
23
Nampalys Mendy
Nampalys Mendy Midfielder
34
Kwadwo Baah
Kwadwo Baah
Attacker60'
66
Nestory Irankunda
Nestory Irankunda Midfielder
9
Luca Kjerrumgaard
Luca Kjerrumgaard Attacker
20
Mamadou Doumbia
Mamadou Doumbia
Attacker61'
39
Edo Kayembe
Edo Kayembe Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ole Romeny → Will Lankshear
9th Substitution
90+4'
Event
Will Vaulks → Yunus Konak
8th Substitution
90+3'
Event
Mark Harris
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
90+2'
89'
Event
Tom Ince → Saba Goglichidze
7th Substitution
Event
Mark Harris → Jamie Paul Donley
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Hidde ter Avest → Myles Peart-Harris
5th Substitution
78'
71'
Event
Imrân Louza
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
68'
Event
Othmane Maamma → Giorgi Chakvetadze
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Kévin Keben → Jérémy Pétris
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Mamadou Doumbia → Luca Kjerrumgaard
2nd Substitution
60'
Event
Kwadwo Baah → Nampalys Mendy
1st Substitution
Event
Myles Peart-Harris
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
57'
Event
Nestory Irankunda
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
Event
Myles Peart-Harris
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
19'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Foul committed by Stanley Mills for Oxford United.
90
Update Update
Offside called against Watford. Mamadou Doumbia is offside.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Will Vaulks replaces Yunus Konak.
90
Update Update
Kwadwo Baah of Watford won a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Ciaron Brown from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Oxford United leading Watford 2-0.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Ole Romeny replaces Will Lankshear.
90
Corner Corner
Oxford United win a corner after James Abankwah concedes.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Oxford United leads 2-0 against Watford. Mark Harris scores for Oxford United with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box into the left corner.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Kévin Keben concedes.
90
Update Update
Ciaron Brown from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
89
Update Update
Foul committed by Kévin Keben of Watford.
89
Update Update
Foul by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Tom Ince replaces Saba Goglichidze.
89
Update Update
Mattie Pollock from Watford won a free kick in the attacking area.
89
Update Update
Mark Harris of Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Mark Harris replaces Jamie Donley.
86
Corner Corner
Will Lankshear of Oxford United had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the shot went high after a corner.
85
Corner Corner
Oxford United win a corner after Saba Goglichidze concedes.
83
Corner Corner
Watford wins a corner after Sam Long concedes.
82
Update Update
Watford is called offside. Mattie Pollock is in an offside position.
81
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Nestory Irankunda from Watford had a right-footed shot from the right side of the box that was blocked. The assist was by Othmane Maamma.
80
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Nestory Irankunda from Watford shoots with his right foot from inside the six-yard box, but Jamie Cumming from Oxford United saves it in the center of the goal.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Oxford United: Hidde ter Avest replaces Myles Peart-Harris.
77
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Jamie Cumming of Oxford United.
76
Update Update
Mamadou Doumbia from Watford misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. The assist was from Nestory Irankunda.
75
Attempt Attempt
Yunus Konak from Oxford United attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but the goalkeeper saves it in the center of the goal. Sam Long provided the assist.
73
Attempt Attempt
Mamadou Doumbia of Watford had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box. The assist came from Nestory Irankunda.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Imrân Louza of Watford receives a yellow card.
71
Corner Corner
Oxford United win a corner after Kévin Keben concedes.
71
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Imrân Louza of Watford receives a yellow card.
70
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
69
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan's right-footed shot from over 35 yards is blocked.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Mattie Pollock of Watford.
69
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United won a free kick in the attacking half.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Othmane Maamma replaces Giorgi Chakvetadze.
66
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Edo Kayembe concedes.
65
Update Update
Foul by Kévin Keben of Watford.
65
Update Update
Will Lankshear of Oxford United won a free kick on the right wing.
64
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Jamie Donley of Oxford United has a left-footed shot from outside the box, which is saved in the right corner by Egil Selvik of Watford. The assist was provided by Yunus Konak.
62
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Kévin Keben concedes.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Kévin Keben replaces Jeremy Petris.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Mamadou Doumbia replaces Luca Kjerrumgaard.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Watford: Kwadwo Baah replaces Nampalys Mendy.
59
Corner Corner
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Egil Selvik from Watford saves it in the top left corner.
59
Corner Corner
Oxford United win a corner after Egil Selvik concedes.
59
Update Update
Fouled by Myles Peart-Harris of Oxford United.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Myles Peart-Harris of Oxford United receives a yellow card for a foul.
59
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Will Lankshear of Oxford United heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Egil Selvik of Watford.
59
Update Update
Imrân Louza from Watford won a free kick in defense.
58
Corner Corner
Stanley Mills from Oxford United misses a close-range header, sending the ball over the bar. The assist came from Cameron Brannagan, who delivered a cross following a corner.
57
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nestory Irankunda from Watford receives a yellow card.
57
Attempt Attempt
Cameron Brannagan's shot from the center of the box is blocked.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after a concession by Mattie Pollock.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Oxford United after Saba Goglichidze concedes.
53
Update Update
Brodie Spencer from Oxford United was awarded a free kick on the left wing.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Jeremy Petris of Watford.
51
Update Update
Luca Kjerrumgaard from Watford commits a handball.
51
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Imrân Louza from Watford shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the left after a corner.
50
Corner Corner
Watford wins a corner after Jamie Cumming concedes.
50
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Nestory Irankunda from Watford takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but Jamie Cumming from Oxford United saves it in the top left corner. The assist comes from Giorgi Chakvetadze.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Jeremy Petris of Watford.
48
Update Update
Brodie Spencer of Oxford United won a free kick in defense.
47
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nampalys Mendy of Watford.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Oxford United leading Watford 1-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Oxford United 1, Watford 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Will Lankshear from Oxford United won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Oxford United leading Watford 1-0.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Mattie Pollock of Watford.
43
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Sam Long from Oxford United.
43
Corner Corner
Watford wins a corner after Sam Long concedes.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Sam Long of Oxford United.
40
Update Update
Nestory Irankunda from Watford won a free kick in defense.
39
Attempt Attempt
Sam Long from Oxford United missed a header from the center of the box, assisted by Jamie Donley.
38
Update Update
Foul committed by James Abankwah of Watford.
38
Update Update
Stanley Mills of Oxford United won a free kick in an attacking position.
34
Update Update
Jeremy Petris from Watford won a free kick on the right wing.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Brodie Spencer of Oxford United.
32
Update Update
Fouled by Brodie Spencer of Oxford United.
32
Update Update
Jeremy Petris from Watford won a free kick in defense.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Saba Goglichidze from Watford.
28
Corner Corner
Oxford United win a corner after Saba Goglichidze concedes.
26
Corner Corner
Watford wins a corner after Brodie Spencer concedes.
25
Corner Corner
Watford wins a corner after Sam Long concedes.
24
Update Update
Foul committed by Will Lankshear of Oxford United.
24
Update Update
Jeremy Petris from Watford won a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Attempt Attempt
Imrân Louza's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
22
Attempt Attempt
Edo Kayembe's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Giorgi Chakvetadze provided the assist.
21
Update Update
Luca Kjerrumgaard of Watford attempts a header from the center of the box, but Jamie Cumming of Oxford United makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Edo Kayembe's cross.
21
Attempt Attempt
Edo Kayembe's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Giorgi Chakvetadze provided the assist.
21
Attempt Attempt
Imrân Louza from Watford has a left-footed shot from outside the box that gets blocked.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Oxford United leads 1-0 against Watford. Myles Peart-Harris scores for Oxford United with a right-footed shot from a few meters into the left corner.
18
Update Update
Edo Kayembe from Watford committed a foul.
18
Update Update
Stanley Mills of Oxford United won a free kick on the right wing.
12
Update Update
Will Lankshear of Oxford United is flagged for offside.
11
Attempt Attempt
Imrân Louza from Watford misses a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes high.
6
Update Update
James Abankwah from Watford won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Stanley Mills fouled Oxford United.
5
Attempt Attempt
Jamie Donley of Oxford United had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, but it went to the left. The assist was provided by Michal Helik.
4
Update Update
Edo Kayembe of Watford commits a foul.
4
Update Update
Yunus Konak from Oxford United won a free kick in defense.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Oxford United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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