Osijek vs Varaždin Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Gradski vrt Fri, 17 Apr - 6:15 PM

1. HNL

Osijek Osijek

Varaždin Varaždin

Full Time Fri, 17 Apr 6:15 PM

Round 30 Regular Season

Iuri Tavares - 30', 11'

CONTEXT

In a stunning upset at Opus Arena, Osijek suffered a 0-2 defeat to Varaždin, who capitalized on first-half opportunities despite being thoroughly outpossessed. Osijek controlled 74% of the ball, launching wave after wave of attacks, but their finishing was woeful, failing to breach a resolute Varaždin defense. The visitors struck twice before halftime, with clinical counters exposing Osijek's vulnerability on the break. The second half saw Osijek push desperately for a comeback, but Varaždin's backline held firm, frustrating the home crowd. This result marks a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, where Osijek were clear favorites. Varaždin's efficiency in possession-poor conditions highlighted their tactical discipline under pressure.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Varaždin recorded a 70.7% significant structural deviation by winning despite 26% possession.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with expectations amid the lopsided possession battle.
xG alignment: xG data absence prevents determination of outcome consistency with chance creation.
Market alignment: Pre-match market views misaligned as Varaždin triumphed over favored Osijek.
xG expectations: Missing xG figures leave performance against expected chances unevaluable.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match trajectory.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured the result faced no distortion from player dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

I. Vukančić

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Zobenica

1st Assistant

F. Krznarić

2nd Assistant

A. Terzić

4th Official

T. Radotic

N. Šafarić

0.95

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.45

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

17 - 14 - 10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Osijek

41.42%

Draw

29.29%

Varaždin

29.29%

Movement

Changes since opening

Osijek

+41.22%

Draw

+27.37%

Varaždin

-68.6%

Team Power Ranking

22.38

23.96

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Osijek

Varaždin

Power Score

22.38

23.96

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score

Varaždin — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Varaždin

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Varaždin

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osijek ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Varaždin

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

37.50

51.92

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

51.92

37.50

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Osijek -1.47 Efficiency Index

Varaždin +1.47 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Osijek

Varaždin

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osijek ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Varaždin

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Osijek Varaždin

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Osijek Varaždin

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Osijek

Varaždin

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Osijek

Varaždin

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Osijek Varaždin

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Osijek Varaždin

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Osijek

Varaždin

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Osijek had peak pressure around 84'.
Osijek started the game with stronger pressure.

Osijek Pressure Varaždin Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Osijek reached the top pressure at 84' (79.26).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home

41 matches

Varaždin Varaždin Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+11

Goal Difference

-11

Data last updated: 2026-04-18T00:02:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3

Match Formation 4-1-4-1

31 M. Malenica

49 I. Kolarik

5 J. Mersinaj

26 L. Jelenić

39 D. Bukvić

6 D. Mejía Moscoso

16 O. Petrusenko

38 D. Čolina

57 S. Akere

34 A. Matković

11 N. Omerović

1 O. Zelenika

20 G. Sikošek

14 R. Punčec

13 M. Mladenovski

23 F. Maglica

6 D. Puclin

38 Iuri Tavares

22 L. Mamić

28 I. Canjuga

7 M. Vuk

10 A. Latković

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 17, 2026, 06:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 30 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Gradski vrt

Capacity :

1000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Ivan Vukančić

Bojan Zobenica

Filip Krznarić

Ante Terzić

Statistics

Possession

Osijek

68%

Varaždin

32%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2

1 Big Chances Created 3

7 Shots 1

135 Dangerous attacks 50

74 Possession 26

8 Corners 3

15 Free kicks 10

2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5

1 Hit Woodwork 0

64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 38

14 Dribble Attempts 8

3 Goal Kicks 16

9 Successful Dribbles 3

37 Throwins 19

0 Assists 2

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 1

197 Attacks 88

Possession

521 Successful Passes 128

89 Successful Passes Percentage 61

16 Successful Long Passes 19

30 Long Passes 62

53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31

12 Key Passes 6

587 Passes 209

Defensive

5 Saves 5

44 Duels Won 47

8 Tackles 21

7 Interceptions 15

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 14

4 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 15

1 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Ivan Vukančić

Manager ▼

T. Radotic Coach

Starting XI ▼

Marko Malenica Goalkeeper

6.91

Jon Mersinaj Defender

6.59

Luka Jelenic Defender

6.81

Tonio Teklic

Midfielder46'

6.76

Ivano Kolarik Defender

6.55

Vladan Bubanja

Midfielder76'

6.77

David Mejía Midfielder

6.7

Simun Mikolcic

Midfielder61'

6.73

Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder

6.66

David Colina Midfielder

6.69

Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder

6.64

Nail Omerovic Attacker

6.93

Borna Barisic

Defender61'

6.8

Anton Matkovic Attacker

6.66

Arnel Jakupovic

Attacker46'

6.83

Samuel Akere Attacker

6.8

Substitutes ▼

Arnel Jakupovic

Attacker46'

6.83

Tonio Teklic

Midfielder46'

6.76

Borna Barisic

Defender61'

6.8

Simun Mikolcic

Midfielder61'

6.73

Vladan Bubanja

Midfielder76'

6.77

Bench ▼

Nikola Curcija Goalkeeper

6.66

Emin Hasic Defender

6.62

Renan Guedes Defender

6.65

Niko Farkas Midfielder

6.25

Luka Vrbancic Midfielder

6.73

Ivan Barić Attacker

6.45

Miloš Jovičić Attacker

6.4

Referee : Ivan Vukančić