Osijek vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia

Stadion Gradski vrt Sat, 25 Apr - 4:15 PM

1. HNL

Osijek Osijek

0 – 0

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb

Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 4:15 PM

Round 32 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In a closely fought Croatian HNL encounter at Opus Arena, Osijek faced Lokomotiva Zagreb, resulting in a tense 0-0 draw. Osijek, deemed the stronger team, controlled 51% possession but found it difficult to penetrate Lokomotiva's compact defense. The halftime score stood at 0-0, reflecting early caution from both sides. In the second half, Osijek increased pressure without yielding goals, while Lokomotiva relied on disciplined organization and counter-threats to hold firm. No red cards were issued, ensuring uninterrupted play with full squads. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation for Osijek, diverging sharply from pre-match expectations despite their edge. The near-even possession highlighted a balanced contest where defensive resilience trumped attacking intent, leaving fans with a sense of frustration.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Osijek faced a significant 70.7% structural deviation in the 0-0 draw.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency for both teams remained in line with expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing data.
Market alignment: Match outcome did not align with pre-market probabilities.
xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
Event impact: No key events influenced the match progression.
Red card distortion: Zero red cards meant no distortion from dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Erceg

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Jakšić

1st Assistant

K. Kuduz

2nd Assistant

J. Titlić

4th Official

T. Radotic

N. Jelavić

1.05

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.14

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

22 - 19 - 19

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Osijek

37.71%

Draw

29.27%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

33.02%

Movement

Changes since opening

Osijek

+32.82%

Draw

-60.95%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

+28.13%

Team Power Ranking

23.58

22.52

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Osijek

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Power Score

23.58

22.52

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score

Lokomotiva Zagreb — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osijek ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

30.20

17.35

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

17.35

30.20

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Osijek +1.28 Efficiency Index

Lokomotiva Zagreb -1.28 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Osijek

Lokomotiva Zagreb

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osijek ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy Lokomotiva Zagreb

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Osijek

Lokomotiva Zagreb

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Osijek

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Osijek Lokomotiva Zagreb

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Osijek

Lokomotiva Zagreb

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

Osijek had peak pressure around 28'.
Lokomotiva Zagreb started the game with stronger pressure.

Osijek Pressure Lokomotiva Zagreb Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: Osijek reached the top pressure at 28' (69.49).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 60 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home

60 matches

Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+11

Goal Difference

-11

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:06:22+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1

31 M. Malenica

98 M. Jovičić

49 I. Kolarik

26 L. Jelenić

38 D. Čolina

6 D. Mejía Moscoso

16 O. Petrusenko

57 S. Akere

21 V. Bubanja

39 D. Bukvić

17 A. Jakupovic

12 J. Posavec

17 M. Pajač

16 L. Dajčer

20 D. Kolinger

5 T. Jukić

10 M. Subotic

6 B. Bošković

28 L. Belcar

29 J. Vasilj

11 M. Šušak

15 A. Stojaković

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 25, 2026, 04:15 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 32 · Regular Season

Stadium :

Stadion Gradski vrt

Capacity :

1000

Pitch Surface :

Grass

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Mateo Erceg

Alen Jakšić

Kristijan Kuduz

Jakov Titlić

Statistics

Possession

Osijek

50%

Lokomotiva Zagreb

50%

Top Statistics

3 Big Chances Created 0

5 Shots 1

28 Dangerous attacks 30

51 Possession 49

9 Corners 9

15 Free kicks 15

2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

10 Dribble Attempts 18

5 Successful Dribbles 9

4 Goal Kicks 7

5 Substitutions 5

50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

19 Throwins 28

Attacking

62 Attacks 58

3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

44 Long Passes 46

15 Successful Long Passes 23

309 Successful Passes 300

390 Passes 371

34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 50

79 Successful Passes Percentage 81

Defensive

22 Tackles 11

11 Interceptions 10

53 Duels Won 49

1 Saves 4

Build-up

23 Total Crosses 28

5 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

15 Fouls 15

0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Mateo Erceg

Manager ▼

T. Radotic Coach

Starting XI ▼

Marko Malenica Goalkeeper

6.95

Luka Jelenic Defender

6.78

David Colina Defender

6.71

Ivano Kolarik Defender

6.57

Jon Mersinaj

Defender83'

6.62

Miloš Jovičić Defender

6.43

Luka Vrbancic

Midfielder46'

6.72

David Mejía Midfielder

6.7

Tonio Teklic

Midfielder67'

6.79

Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder

6.71

Domagoj Bukvic Midfielder

6.65

Borna Barisic

Defender66'

6.81

Samuel Akere Midfielder

6.81

Arnel Jakupovic Attacker

6.87

Vladan Bubanja Attacker

6.81

Nail Omerovic

Defender76'

6.9

Substitutes ▼

Luka Vrbancic

Midfielder46'

6.72

Borna Barisic

Defender66'

6.81

Tonio Teklic

Midfielder67'

6.79

Nail Omerovic

Defender76'

6.9

Jon Mersinaj

Defender83'

6.62

Bench ▼

Nikola Curcija Goalkeeper

6.66

Emin Hasic Defender

6.63

Renan Guedes Defender

6.65

Simun Mikolcic Midfielder

6.73

Jakov Dedic Attacker

6.37

Ivan Barić Attacker

6.43

Referee : Mateo Erceg