Osijek vs Istra 1961 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Gradski vrt Sun, 10 May - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Osijek Osijek
0 Winner 1
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
Full Time Sun, 10 May 2:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Smail Prevljak - 45'

CONTEXT

In a surprising upset in the Croatian league, visiting Istra 1961 secured a 0-1 victory over home side Osijek, who dominated possession with 57% but failed to convert chances. Istra struck first in the opening half, leading 0-1 at halftime, and resiliently defended their lead through a gritty second period despite Osijek's pressure. Lacking expected firepower upfront, Osijek peppered the Istra goal without breakthrough, highlighting defensive solidity from the away team. Istra, deemed the stronger side pre-match, capitalized efficiently on their opportunity, extending their positive run. The minimal structural deviation of 4.4% underscored a result closely aligned with underlying metrics, free from red card disruptions or major tactical shifts. Possession disparity did not translate to goals, as Istra's counter-threat proved decisive in this tightly contested affair.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Match exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.4% in favor of winner Istra 1961.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market indicators.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmet due to lack of underlying data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Pajač

Croatia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

F. Dragasevic

4th Official

Croatia

I. Mihalj

1st Assistant

Croatia

D. Pranjić

2nd Assistant

Croatia

League averages

1. HNL Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 23.02
Yellow cards / match 3.39
Red cards / match 0.07
Penalties / match 0.33
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
VS
Istra 1961 K. Režić
K. Režić
1.1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: 55 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 D
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 W
Varaždin Rank: 64 L
Rijeka Rank: 72 W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 82 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: 62 W
Gorica Rank: 61 L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: 80 L
Vukovar Rank: 54 L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: 63 L
Hajduk Split Rank: 72 L
27
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
27 - 20 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osijek
0.19%
Draw
4.2%
Away Istra 1961
95.61%

Movement

Changes since opening
Osijek
0%
Draw
-1.45%
Istra 1961
+1.45%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
62.38
63.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osijek
Istra 1961
Power Score
62.38
63.74
League Position
9
5
Global Rank
417
372

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osijek Istra 1961

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.84
38.49
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.49
26.84
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osijek — Efficiency Index
vs
Istra 1961 — Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Istra 1961
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osijek ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Istra 1961
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osijek Istra 1961
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osijek Istra 1961
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Osijek
Istra 1961
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Osijek
vs
Istra 1961
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Osijek Istra 1961
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Osijek 0.13
Istra 1961 0.18
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Osijek Istra 1961
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Osijek 0.01
Istra 1961 0.00
Osijek
Istra 1961
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Osijek had peak pressure around 83'.
  • Osijek started the game with stronger pressure.
Osijek Pressure Istra 1961 Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Osijek reached the top pressure at 83' (79.98).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 64 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osijek Osijek Home
64 matches
Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Away
Match Record
27
Wins
17
20
Draws
20
17
Losses
27
Goals
85
Goals Scored
67
67
Goals Conceded
85
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
N. Curcija
Canada
1 N. Curcija
I. Kolarik
Substitution
49 I. Kolarik
L. Jelenić
Croatia
26 L. Jelenić
B. Barišić
Substitution
Croatia
3 B. Barišić
M. Jovičić
Substitution
98 M. Jovičić
V. Bubanja
Montenegro
21 V. Bubanja
O. Petrusenko
Ukraine
16 O. Petrusenko
R. Jurišić
Croatia
22 R. Jurišić
N. Farkaš
Substitution
18 N. Farkaš
I. Barić
Substitution
Croatia
46 I. Barić
N. Omerović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 N. Omerović
Pitch
F. Kolić
Croatia
1 F. Kolić
S. Miettinen
Finland
16 S. Miettinen
R. Kumar
Croatia
38 R. Kumar
F. Taraba
Bosnia and Herzegovina
24 F. Taraba
M. Heister
Substitution
Germany
26 M. Heister
S. Lončar
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 S. Lončar
J. Radošević
Croatia
5 J. Radošević
R. Hrvatin
Substitution
Slovenia
44 R. Hrvatin
V. Rozić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
7 V. Rozić
S. Prevljak
Bosnia and Herzegovina
9 S. Prevljak
E. Frederiksen
Substitution
Denmark
17 E. Frederiksen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Gradski vrt
Capacity :
1000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Filip Dragasevic
Igor Pajač
Ivan Mihalj
Dario Pranjić

Statistics

Possession
Osijek
55%
Istra 1961
45%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 7
86 Dangerous attacks 71
57 Possession 43
1 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 10
4 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

22 Dribble Attempts 10
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 20
25 Throwins 33
8 Successful Dribbles 2
6 Goal Kicks 10
0 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

153 Attacks 130
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

45 Long Passes 53
508 Passes 378
83 Successful Passes Percentage 78
423 Successful Passes 293
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
17 Successful Long Passes 20
8 Key Passes 10

Defensive

59 Duels Won 50
14 Interceptions 6
23 Tackles 26
2 Saves 4

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 12
2 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Igor Pajač

Starting XI ▼

1
Nikola Curcija
Nikola Curcija Goalkeeper
3
Borna Barisic
Borna Barisic Defender
57
Samuel Akere
Samuel Akere
Midfielder70'
26
Luka Jelenic
Luka Jelenic Defender
49
Ivano Kolarik
Ivano Kolarik Defender
23
Luka Vrbancic
Luka Vrbancic
Midfielder46'
16
Oleksandr Petrusenko
Oleksandr Petrusenko Midfielder
18
Niko Farkas
Niko Farkas Midfielder
33
Emin Hasic
Emin Hasic
Defender46'
22
Roko Jurisic
Roko Jurisic Midfielder
98
Miloš Jovičić
Miloš Jovičić Midfielder
39
Domagoj Bukvic
Domagoj Bukvic
Attacker46'
11
Nail Omerovic
Nail Omerovic Attacker
21
Vladan Bubanja
Vladan Bubanja Attacker
46
Ivan Barić
Ivan Barić Attacker
17
Arnel Jakupovic
Arnel Jakupovic
Attacker61'
Referee : Igor Pajač

Starting XI ▼

1
Franko Kolic
Franko Kolic Goalkeeper
16
Samuli Miettinen
Samuli Miettinen Defender
24
Filip Taraba
Filip Taraba Defender
38
Raul Kumar
Raul Kumar Defender
5
Josip Radosevic
Josip Radosevic Midfielder
10
Stjepan Loncar
Stjepan Loncar Midfielder
26
Marcel Heister
Marcel Heister Midfielder
13
Niko Šepić
Niko Šepić
Defender84'
44
R. Hrvatin
R. Hrvatin Midfielder
97
Advan Kadusic
Advan Kadusic
Defender60'
7
Vinko Rozic
Vinko Rozic Attacker
8
Antonio Mauric
Antonio Mauric
Midfielder72'
9
Smail Prevljak
Smail Prevljak Attacker
17
Emil Frederiksen
Emil Frederiksen Attacker
20
Dukan Ahmeti
Dukan Ahmeti
Midfielder60'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Raul Kumar
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Antonio Mauric
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Niko Šepić → Marcel Heister
9th Substitution
75'
Event
Samuli Miettinen
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
74'
Event
Dukan Ahmeti
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Antonio Mauric → Vinko Rozic
8th Substitution
Event
Samuel Akere → Borna Barisic
7th Substitution
70'
Event
Borna Barisic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
67'
Event
Arnel Jakupovic
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Arnel Jakupovic → Ivan Barić
6th Substitution
61'
60'
Event
Dukan Ahmeti → Emil Frederiksen
4th Substitution
60'
Event
Advan Kadusic → R. Hrvatin
5th Substitution
Event
Luka Vrbancic → Ivano Kolarik
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Domagoj Bukvic → Miloš Jovičić
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Emin Hasic → Niko Farkas
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Smail Prevljak
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Ivano Kolarik
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
16'
Event
Ivan Barić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
13'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Raul Kumar receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Mauric takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Attempt Attempt
Luka Vrbancic takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Update Update
Niko Sepic replaces Marcel Heister.
84
Update Update
Samuel Akere takes a header, but it misses the target.
81
Attempt Attempt
Samuel Akere takes a left-footed shot but misses.
80
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Mauric takes a shot with his head, but it misses the target.
80
Attempt Attempt
Antonio Mauric takes a left-footed shot but misses.
78
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Bukvic takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
75
Attempt Attempt
Vladan Bubanja attempts a header but misses the shot.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Samuli Miettinen receives a yellow card.
72
Update Update
Antonio Mauric is on, and Vinko Rozic is off.
70
Update Update
Samuel Akere replaces Borna Barisic.
66
Attempt Attempt
Dukan Ahmeti takes a right-footed shot but misses.
65
Attempt Attempt
Dukan Ahmeti attempts a header but misses the shot.
61
Update Update
Arnel Jakupovic replaces Ivan Baric.
61
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Arnel Jakupovic receives a yellow card.
60
Update Update
Advan Kadusic replaces Rene Hrvatin.
60
Substitution Substitution
Dukan Ahmeti is substituted for Emil Frederiksen.
58
Attempt Attempt
Nail Omerovic takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Bukvic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
52
Attempt Attempt
Domagoj Bukvic's left-footed shot is saved.
50
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Oleksandr Petrusenko with his right foot is saved.
46
Update Update
Emin Hasic comes on for Niko Farkas.
46
Update Update
Luka Vrbancic is on, and Ivano Kolarik is off.
46
Update Update
Emin Hasic comes on for Niko Farkas.
45
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak scores with a right-footed shot.
45
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Josip Radosevic takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Baric takes a right-footed shot but misses.
33
Attempt Attempt
Smail Prevljak takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Rene Hrvatin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
17
Attempt Attempt
Marcel Heister takes a right-footed shot but misses.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ivano Kolarik receives a yellow card.
14
Attempt Attempt
Emil Frederiksen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
13
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Ivan Baric.

CONCLUSION

Istra 1961's 0-1 triumph over Osijek validates their stronger pre-match standing, overcoming 43% possession through clinical finishing and stout defense. Osijek's dominance in ball control yielded no goals, exposing vulnerabilities in chance creation against a compact opponent. The halftime lead proved pivotal, with Istra absorbing pressure post-interval without concession. Minimal deviations and full market alignment highlight a predictable yet hard-fought result, unmarred by cards or disruptions. This win bolsters Istra's momentum, while Osijek must refine finishing to match possession stats, setting up intriguing future clashes in the league.

Osijek vs Istra 1961 preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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