Osasuna vs Sevilla Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio El Sadar Sun, 26 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga
Osasuna OSA
2 Winner 1
Sevilla SEV
Full Time Sun, 26 Apr 4:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Alejandro Catena - 90+9'
Raúl García - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Neal Maupay - 69'

CONTEXT

Osasuna claimed a 2-1 home win against Sevilla, with the scoreline level at 0-0 during halftime. The hosts asserted dominance through 61% possession compared to Sevilla's 39%, underscoring their position as the stronger team. All goals materialized in the second half, reflecting effective adjustments without any reported disruptions. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation of 50.2% favoring Osasuna, yet it remained aligned with pre-match market assessments. Efficiency patterns stayed in line with prior indicators. Absent red cards or notable events, the match progressed steadily, allowing Osasuna's control to translate into victory. The result reinforces Osasuna's solid home form while highlighting Sevilla's struggles away.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osasuna's 2-1 win featured a significant 50.2% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unavailable for analysis.
  • Event impact: No major events or second-half adjustments impacted the match.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, resulting in no distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

M. Ortiz Arias

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

J. Garrido Romero

1st Assistant

G. Santiago Sacristán

2nd Assistant

P. Monterrubio Torres

4th Official

Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
VS
Sevilla L. García Plaza
L. García Plaza
1.26
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: L
Real Betis Rank: D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: D
Girona Rank: W
Real Sociedad Rank: L
Mallorca Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levante Rank: L
Atlético Madrid Rank: W
Real Oviedo Rank: L
Valencia Rank: L
FC Barcelona Rank: L
Rayo Vallecano Rank: D
9
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
9 - 10 - 17
17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osasuna
49.76%
Draw
28.22%
Away Sevilla
22.02%

Movement

Changes since opening
Osasuna
+44.83%
Draw
-63.62%
Sevilla
+18.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
22.79
18.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osasuna
Sevilla
Power Score
22.79
18.11
League Position
9
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Osasuna Opponent-weighted form score
Sevilla Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osasuna Sevilla

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Osasuna

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Sevilla

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sevilla
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.11
23.59
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.59
28.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osasuna +0.41 Efficiency Index
vs
Sevilla -0.41 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osasuna
Sevilla
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sevilla
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osasuna Sevilla
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osasuna Sevilla
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Osasuna
Sevilla
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Osasuna
vs
Sevilla
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Osasuna Sevilla
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Osasuna Sevilla
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Osasuna
Sevilla
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OSA had peak pressure around 91'.
  • OSA started the game with stronger pressure.
OSA Pressure SEV Pressure
Pressure Index: OSA reached the top pressure at 91' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osasuna OSA Home
36 matches
Sevilla SEV Away
Match Record
9
Wins
17
10
Draws
10
17
Losses
9
Goals
29
Goals Scored
47
47
Goals Conceded
29
-18
Goal Difference
+18

Data last updated: 2026-04-27T00:07:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Herrera Pirón
Spain
1 S. Herrera Pirón
V. Rosier
France
19 V. Rosier
A. Catena Marugán
Spain
24 A. Catena Marugán
F. Boyomos
Cameroon
22 F. Boyomos
J. Galán Gil
Substitution
Spain
20 J. Galán Gil
J. Moncayola Tollar
Spain
7 J. Moncayola Tollar
I. Muñoz Cameros
Substitution
Spain
8 I. Muñoz Cameros
R. García Santos
Substitution
Spain
14 R. García Santos
A. Oroz
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Oroz
V. Muñoz Villanueva
Substitution
Spain
21 V. Muñoz Villanueva
A. Budimir
Croatia
17 A. Budimir
Pitch
O. Vlachodimos
Greece
1 O. Vlachodimos
G. Suazo Urbina
Chile
12 G. Suazo Urbina
Kike Salas
Spain
4 Kike Salas
A. López Gallo
Spain
32 A. López Gallo
José Ángel Carmona
Spain
2 José Ángel Carmona
J. Martínez Gauna
Substitution
Spain
36 J. Martínez Gauna
D. Sow
Substitution
Switzerland
20 D. Sow
L. Agoume
France
18 L. Agoume
R. Vargas
Substitution
Switzerland
11 R. Vargas
I. Romero Bernal
Substitution
Spain
7 I. Romero Bernal
N. Maupay
Substitution
France
17 N. Maupay

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 26, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio El Sadar
Capacity :
23576
Attendance :
20541
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias
José Antonio Garrido Romero
Guillermo Santiago Sacristán
Pablo Monterrubio Torres

Statistics

Possession
OSA
59%
SEV
41%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 5
43 Dangerous attacks 24
61 Possession 39
4 Corners 4
13 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

20 Throwins 22
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
24 Successful Headers 22
6 Goal Kicks 10
18 Dribble Attempts 16
10 Successful Dribbles 4
5 Substitutions 5
2 Injuries 3
14 Goal Attempts 6
86 Ball Safe 76
1 Assists 1

Attacking

96 Attacks 80
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

483 Passes 310
47 Long Passes 59
402 Successful Passes 218
9 Key Passes 7
83 Successful Passes Percentage 70
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 27
19 Successful Long Passes 16

Defensive

15 Tackles 17
2 Interceptions 6
1 Saves 5
61 Duels Won 53

Build-up

35 Total Crosses 19
8 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

11 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias

Starting XI

1
Sergio Herrera
Sergio Herrera Goalkeeper
6.93
19
Valentin Rosier
Valentin Rosier Defender
6.68
20
Javi Galán
Javi Galán Defender
6.52
23
Abel Bretones
Abel Bretones
Defender90'
6.65
22
Enzo Boyomo
Enzo Boyomo Defender
6.73
24
Alejandro Catena
Alejandro Catena Defender
6.86
7
Jon Moncayola
Jon Moncayola Midfielder
6.82
8
Iker Muñoz
Iker Muñoz Midfielder
6.64
9
Raúl García
Raúl García
Attacker71'
6.71
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz Midfielder
6.83
18
Raúl Moro
Raúl Moro
Attacker62'
6.66
14
Rubén García
Rubén García Midfielder
6.89
16
Moi Gómez
Moi Gómez
Attacker71'
6.74
21
Víctor Muñoz
Víctor Muñoz Midfielder
6.77
11
Kike Barja
Kike Barja
Attacker90'
6.58
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
7.08
Referee : Miguel Ángel Ortiz Arias

Starting XI

1
Odysseas Vlachodimos
Odysseas Vlachodimos Goalkeeper
6.72
2
José Ángel Carmona
José Ángel Carmona Defender
6.66
4
Kike Salas
Kike Salas Defender
6.92
12
Gabriel Suazo
Gabriel Suazo Defender
6.89
32
Andrés Castrín
Andrés Castrín Defender
6.88
11
Rubén Vargas
Rubén Vargas Midfielder
6.89
16
Juanlu Sánchez
Juanlu Sánchez
Midfielder76'
6.64
18
Lucien Agoumé
Lucien Agoumé Midfielder
6.81
20
Djibril Sow
Djibril Sow Midfielder
6.79
19
Batista Mendy
Batista Mendy
Midfielder71'
6.71
36
Oso
Oso Midfielder
6.78
9
Akor Adams
Akor Adams
Attacker87'
6.8
7
Isaac Romero
Isaac Romero Attacker
6.58
14
Peque Fernández
Peque Fernández
Attacker87'
6.73
17
Neal Maupay
Neal Maupay Attacker
6.6
6
Nemanja Gudelj
Nemanja Gudelj
Midfielder87'
6.74

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alejandro Catena
Header / 3rd Goal
90+9'
Event
Raúl García
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Kike Barja Víctor Muñoz
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Abel Bretones Javi Galán
10th Substitution
90'
87'
Event
Peque Fernández Isaac Romero
7th Substitution
87'
Event
Akor Adams Oso
6th Substitution
87'
Event
Nemanja Gudelj Neal Maupay
8th Substitution
Event
Raúl García
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
80'
76'
Event
Juanlu Sánchez Rubén Vargas
5th Substitution
Event
Moi Gómez Rubén García
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Raúl García Iker Muñoz
2nd Substitution
71'
71'
Event
Batista Mendy Djibril Sow
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Neal Maupay
Header / 1st Goal
66'
Event
Djibril Sow
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Raúl Moro Aimar Oroz
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Ante Budimir
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
1ST-HALF
6'
Event
Gabriel Suazo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Kike Barja comes on for Víctor Muñoz.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Kike Barja of Osasuna.
90
Update Update
Kike Barja from Osasuna misses a header from the left side of the six-yard box.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 9 minutes of added time.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Abel Bretones comes on for Javi Galán.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Alejandro Catena scores for Osasuna with a header from the center of the box. The score is now Osasuna 2, Sevilla 1.
90
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona of Sevilla wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Raúl García of Osasuna.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Raúl García from Osasuna receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
90
Update Update
Juanlu Sánchez of Sevilla wins a free kick on the right wing.
90
Attempt Attempt
Nemanja Gudelj's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Raúl García's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a foul by Andrés Castrín.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Osasuna winning 2-1 against Sevilla.
89
Update Update
Raúl García from Osasuna misses a header from the center of the box.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Akor Adams comes on for Oso.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Nemanja Gudelj comes on for Neal Maupay.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Peque Fernández comes on for Isaac Romero.
84
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Gabriel Suazo of Sevilla.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Raúl García's header from the center of the box is saved by Odysseas Vlachodimos in the center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Raúl Moro with a headed pass.
84
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Gabriel Suazo from Sevilla.
82
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Romero's left-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked.
82
Corner Corner
Sevilla wins a corner after Raúl Moro concedes.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Raúl García scores for Osasuna with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner. The match is now 1-1.
79
Update Update
Kike Salas of Sevilla is caught offside.
78
Update Update
Neal Maupay wins a free kick for Sevilla in the attacking half.
78
Update Update
Foul by Moi Gómez of Osasuna.
78
Attempt Attempt
Jon Moncayola from Osasuna attempts a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes close and misses to the left. Moi Gómez provided the assist.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Juanlu Sánchez comes on for Rubén Vargas due to an injury.
75
Update Update
Foul committed by Kike Salas of Sevilla.
75
Update Update
Ante Budimir of Osasuna wins a free kick in the attacking half.
73
Update Update
Foul by Lucien Agoumé for Sevilla.
73
Update Update
Valentin Rosier from Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.
72
Update Update
Foul committed by Batista Mendy of Sevilla.
72
Update Update
Jon Moncayola wins a free kick for Osasuna in the attacking half.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl García comes on for Iker Muñoz.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sevilla: Batista Mendy comes on for Djibril Sow due to an injury.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Moi Gómez comes on for Rubén García.
70
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Djibril Sow of Sevilla.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Sevilla takes the lead 1-0 with Neal Maupay scoring a header from the center of the box into the center of the goal, assisted by Djibril Sow.
67
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Iker Muñoz from Osasuna.
66
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.
66
Update Update
Foul by Djibril Sow for Sevilla.
66
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Djibril Sow from Sevilla receives a yellow card for a foul.
65
Corner Corner
Sevilla earns a corner after Javi Galán concedes.
64
Corner Corner
Sevilla wins a corner after Enzo Boyomo concedes.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl Moro comes on for Aimar Oroz.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Neal Maupay for Sevilla.
60
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by José Ángel Carmona of Sevilla.
60
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.
59
Update Update
Neal Maupay commits a handball for Sevilla.
58
Corner Corner
Sevilla wins a corner after Enzo Boyomo concedes.
55
Update Update
Foul by Jon Moncayola of Osasuna.
55
Update Update
Oso from Sevilla wins a free kick on the left wing.
52
Corner Corner
Osasuna wins a corner after Kike Salas concedes.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Ante Budimir of Osasuna.
51
Update Update
Kike Salas from Sevilla wins a free kick in the defensive half.
51
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Rubén Vargas from Sevilla takes a right-footed shot from outside the box.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ante Budimir of Osasuna receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Lucien Agoumé for Sevilla.
48
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna wins a free kick on the left wing.
47
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir of Osasuna misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Jon Moncayola provided the assist with a cross.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at Osasuna 0, Sevilla 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
44
Update Update
Andrés Castrín of Sevilla wins a free kick in the defensive half.
44
Update Update
Foul by Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna.
41
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla wins a free kick in the defensive half.
41
Update Update
José Ángel Carmona from Sevilla wins a free kick in the defensive half.
40
Update Update
Offside called against Sevilla. Neal Maupay is flagged for offside.
39
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed by Javi Galán of Osasuna, who took a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
39
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Javi Galán from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it goes wide to the right.
39
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna has a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it's saved in the bottom left corner by Odysseas Vlachodimos of Sevilla.
38
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Rosier from Osasuna misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, which goes just a bit too high. He was assisted by Iker Muñoz.
36
Attempt Attempt
Jon Moncayola's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
35
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a concession by Isaac Romero.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Aimar Oroz of Osasuna.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by José Ángel Carmona of Sevilla.
34
Update Update
Lucien Agoumé wins a free kick for Sevilla in the attacking half.
34
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved by Sergio Herrera in the top center of the goal.
34
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna wins a free kick on the left wing.
32
Update Update
Gabriel Suazo from Sevilla wins a free kick in the defensive half.
32
Update Update
Foul by Valentin Rosier of Osasuna.
31
Corner Corner
Jon Moncayola's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom right corner by Odysseas Vlachodimos. The attempt was assisted by Víctor Muñoz.
25
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna wins a free kick in the attacking half.
25
Update Update
Foul committed by Djibril Sow of Sevilla.
24
Attempt Attempt
Isaac Romero from Sevilla misses the attempt with a left-footed shot from over 35 yards, sending it high and wide to the left. Neal Maupay assisted after a fast break.
23
Update Update
Foul by Gabriel Suazo for Sevilla.
23
Update Update
Rubén García from Osasuna wins a free kick on the right wing.
22
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Alejandro Catena from Osasuna.
14
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Rubén Vargas concedes.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Valentin Rosier of Osasuna.
11
Update Update
Oso from Sevilla wins a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Update Update
Andrés Castrín from Sevilla misses an attempt with a header from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left. Gabriel Suazo provided the assist after a set piece situation.
7
Update Update
Handball by Javi Galán of Osasuna.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Gabriel Suazo for Sevilla.
6
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Suazo of Sevilla receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
6
Update Update
Valentin Rosier of Osasuna is awarded a free kick on the right wing.
4
Attempt Attempt
Neal Maupay from Sevilla misses the attempt with a right-footed shot from outside the box, sending it high and wide to the left. The chance was assisted by José Ángel Carmona with a cross.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Djibril Sow of Sevilla.
2
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna wins a free kick in the defensive half.

CONCLUSION

Osasuna's 2-1 triumph over Sevilla validates their stronger standing, driven by superior possession and second-half execution after a cautious opening period. The significant deviation underscores an outperformance relative to baselines, while market alignment confirms predictive consistency. With efficiency in line and no disruptive elements like red cards, the result stems from sustained control and clinical finishing. Sevilla's lower possession limited their threat, exposing vulnerabilities on the road. This victory bolsters Osasuna's campaign momentum.

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