Osasuna vs Girona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio El Sadar Sat, 21 Mar - 5:30 PM
La Liga
Osasuna OSA
1 Winner 0
Girona GIR
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Ante Budimir - 80'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Osasuna and Girona has officially finished, with Osasuna securing a 1-0 home victory. Entering the contest, the pre-match market slightly favored the hosts, giving them a 47.4% probability of winning, compared to a 27.5% likelihood for a draw and 25.1% for a Girona victory. Ultimately, the result represented a significant deviation of 52.6% in favor of Osasuna, though the home win meant the final outcome remained aligned with the pre-match market expectations. Despite being perfectly even with a scoreless first half, Osasuna was far more dangerous in attack over the full ninety minutes. Girona held a slight advantage in time on the ball, earning 52% possession compared to Osasuna's 48%. However, the hosts thoroughly dominated the underlying metrics, generating an impressive 2.26 expected goals (xG) against a mere 0.27 xG from the visitors. Because of this heavy offensive advantage, Osasuna's victory was completely consistent with the xG data. Their scoring was in line with standard efficiency shifts, requiring no extraordinary finishing to claim the three points. Finally, the match progressed without any major disciplinary disruptions, as no red cards were issued to impact the tactical flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osasuna showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
VS
Girona M. Sánchez Muñoz
M. Sánchez Muñoz
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.43
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Valencia Rank: 78 L
Real Madrid Rank: 95 W
Elche Rank: 73 D
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 W
Villarreal Rank: 84 D
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 77 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Athletic Club Rank: 79 W
Levante Rank: 71 D
Celta de Vigo Rank: 83 L
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
FC Barcelona Rank: 97 W
Sevilla Rank: 74 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osasuna
47.37%
Draw
27.51%
Away Girona
25.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.67
75.86
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osasuna
Girona
Power Score
78.67
75.86
League Position
10
13
Global Rank
70
93

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
Girona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osasuna Girona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Osasuna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Girona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Girona
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.65
14.04
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.04
43.65
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osasuna +2.68 Efficiency Index
vs
Girona -2.68 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osasuna
Girona
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osasuna
vs
Girona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osasuna Girona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osasuna Girona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Osasuna
Girona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osasuna OSA Home
14 matches
Girona GIR Away
Match Record
4
Wins
7
3
Draws
3
7
Losses
4
Goals
10
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
10
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:16+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Herrera Pirón
Spain
1 S. Herrera Pirón
V. Rosier
France
19 V. Rosier
A. Catena Marugán
Spain
24 A. Catena Marugán
F. Boyomos
Cameroon
22 F. Boyomos
J. Galán Gil
Spain
20 J. Galán Gil
J. Moncayola Tollar
Spain
7 J. Moncayola Tollar
I. Muñoz Cameros
Substitution
Spain
8 I. Muñoz Cameros
R. García Santos
Substitution
Spain
14 (C) R. García Santos
A. Oroz
Substitution
Spain
10 A. Oroz
V. Muñoz Villanueva
Spain
21 V. Muñoz Villanueva
A. Budimir
Substitution
Croatia
17 A. Budimir
Pitch
P. Gazzaniga
Argentina
13 P. Gazzaniga
A. Martinez
Substitution
Spain
4 (C) A. Martinez
D. Blind
Netherlands
17 D. Blind
V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
Brazil
12 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
H. Rincón Lumbreras
Spain
2 H. Rincón Lumbreras
A. Witsel
Belgium
20 A. Witsel
F. Beltrán Peinado
Substitution
Spain
8 F. Beltrán Peinado
J. Roca Casals
Substitution
Spain
3 J. Roca Casals
A. Ounahi
Morocco
18 A. Ounahi
V. Tsygankov
Substitution
Ukraine
15 V. Tsygankov
V. Vanat
Substitution
Ukraine
19 V. Vanat

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 21, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio El Sadar
Capacity :
23576
Attendance :
20975
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Iván Ríos Vargas
J. Gordillo Escamilla
José Luis Guzmán Mansilla
José Luis Martínez Guerrero

Statistics

Possession
OSA
50%
GIR
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 0
15 Shots 4
39 Dangerous attacks 46
48 Possession 52
6 Corners 2
7 Free kicks 18
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

22 Dribble Attempts 13
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 62
3 Goal Kicks 5
9 Successful Dribbles 8
17 Throwins 18
15 Successful Headers 7
56 Ball Safe 59
14 Goal Attempts 2
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

67 Attacks 79
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

88 Successful Passes Percentage 86
60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
29 Successful Long Passes 14
389 Successful Passes 427
48 Long Passes 30
441 Passes 494
12 Key Passes 3

Defensive

12 Interceptions 6
0 Saves 10
17 Tackles 22

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 2
25 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

18 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : José Luis Guzmán Mansilla

Starting XI ▼

1
Sergio Herrera
Sergio Herrera Goalkeeper
6.89
19
Valentin Rosier
Valentin Rosier Defender
7.28
20
Javi Galán
Javi Galán Defender
6.59
22
Enzo Boyomo
Enzo Boyomo Defender
7.44
24
Alejandro Catena
Alejandro Catena Defender
7.05
7
Jon Moncayola
Jon Moncayola Midfielder
6.68
8
Iker Muñoz
Iker Muñoz Midfielder
7.57
29
Asier Osambela
Asier Osambela
Midfielder83'
6.76
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz Midfielder
6.71
11
Kike Barja
Kike Barja
Attacker69'
7.24
14
Rubén García
Rubén García (C) Midfielder
6.7
23
Abel Bretones
Abel Bretones
Defender83'
6.2
21
Víctor Muñoz
Víctor Muñoz Midfielder
7.22
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
7.55
9
Raúl García
Raúl García
Attacker83'
6.35
Referee : José Luis Guzmán Mansilla

Starting XI ▼

13
Paulo Gazzaniga
Paulo Gazzaniga Goalkeeper
8.83
2
Hugo Rincón
Hugo Rincón Defender
7
4
Arnau Martínez
Arnau Martínez (C) Defender
6.59
24
Álex Moreno
Álex Moreno
Defender75'
6.47
12
Vitor Reis
Vitor Reis Defender
6.85
17
Daley Blind
Daley Blind Defender
6.74
3
Joel Roca
Joel Roca Midfielder
6.81
14
Claudio Echeverri
Claudio Echeverri
Midfielder60'
6.49
8
Fran Beltrán
Fran Beltrán Midfielder
6.78
9
Abel Ruiz
Abel Ruiz
Attacker86'
15
Viktor Tsygankov
Viktor Tsygankov Midfielder
6.76
11
Thomas Lemar
Thomas Lemar
Midfielder86'
18
Azzedine Ounahi
Azzedine Ounahi Midfielder
6.65
20
Axel Witsel
Axel Witsel Midfielder
6.95
19
Vladyslav Vanat
Vladyslav Vanat Attacker
6.44
23
Iván Martín
Iván Martín
Midfielder75'
6.61

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Jon Moncayola
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+3'
86'
Event
Thomas Lemar → Viktor Tsygankov
8th Substitution
86'
Event
Abel Ruiz → Fran Beltrán
9th Substitution
Event
Abel Bretones → Rubén García
5th Substitution
83'
Event
Raúl García → Ante Budimir
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Asier Osambela → Iker Muñoz
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Ante Budimir
Header / 1st Goal
80'
75'
Event
Iván Martín → Vladyslav Vanat
3rd Substitution
75'
Event
Álex Moreno → Arnau Martínez
4th Substitution
Event
Kike Barja → Aimar Oroz
2nd Substitution
69'
60'
Event
Claudio Echeverri → Joel Roca
1st Substitution
Event
Javi Galán
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
59'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Viktor Tsygankov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Daley Blind from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Asier Osambela from Osasuna committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Moncayola from Osasuna has been shown a yellow card.
90
Update Update
Offside call against Girona. Álex Moreno has been caught offside.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Raúl García from Osasuna takes a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area. However, Paulo Gazzaniga from Girona makes a great save, diving to his right. The assist for this play came from Asier Osambela.
90
Update Update
Álex Moreno from Girona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Abel Bretones from Osasuna committed a foul.
90
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push from Osasuna. Kike Barja takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, but Paulo Gazzaniga from Girona makes a great save, denying him in the top center of the goal.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Osasuna 1, Girona 0.
90
Update Update
Thomas Lemar from Girona has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Raúl García from Osasuna committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 6 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Daley Blind from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Azzedine Ounahi from Girona attempted a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar and to the right. The assist came from Daley Blind.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Jon Moncayola allowed the ball to go out of play.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Girona after Abel Bretones allowed the ball to go out.
87
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna commits a handball.
87
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Abel Ruiz from Girona takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Abel Ruiz from Girona takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
87
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Valentin Rosier from Osasuna attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left.
87
Attempt Attempt
Azzedine Ounahi from Girona attempts a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets deflected. The assist came from Iván Martín.
86
Update Update
Hugo Rincón from Girona committed a foul.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Abel Ruiz comes on to replace Fran Beltrán.
86
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Thomas Lemar comes on to replace Viktor Tsygankov.
85
Update Update
Kike Barja from Osasuna committed a foul.
85
Update Update
Daley Blind from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Raúl García comes on to replace Ante Budimir.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Asier Osambela comes on to replace Iker Muñoz.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Abel Bretones comes on to replace Rubén García.
80
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Osasuna takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Girona. Ante Budimir heads the ball into the bottom right corner from the center of the box, thanks to a well-placed cross from Kike Barja.
78
Update Update
Hugo Rincón from Girona has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
78
Update Update
Hugo Rincón from Girona has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
77
Update Update
Kike Barja from Osasuna committed a foul.
77
Attempt Attempt
A header attempt from Ante Budimir of Osasuna is thwarted. The shot, taken from the middle of the penalty area, is blocked. The assist came from Kike Barja, who delivered a cross.
76
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Iker Muñoz from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Paulo Gazzaniga of Girona makes a fantastic save, pushing the ball away to the top right corner.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Iván Martín comes on to replace Vladyslav Vanat.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Álex Moreno replaces Arnau Martínez.
73
Update Update
Alejandro Catena from Osasuna committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Viktor Tsygankov from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
72
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a play that resulted in Paulo Gazzaniga conceding.
72
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Víctor Muñoz of Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Paulo Gazzaniga from Girona makes a great save, catching the ball at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Jon Moncayola.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Paulo Gazzaniga allowed the ball to go out.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Osasuna: Kike Barja replaces Aimar Oroz.
68
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
68
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Claudio Echeverri from Girona.
67
Update Update
Azzedine Ounahi from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
67
Update Update
Jon Moncayola from Osasuna committed a foul.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Girona: Claudio Echeverri comes on to replace Joel Roca.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Javi Galán of Osasuna has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
59
Update Update
Fran Beltrán from Girona was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
59
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Vitor Reis from Girona committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ante Budimir from Osasuna took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
54
Update Update
Javi Galán from Osasuna committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Vladyslav Vanat from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Offside call against Girona. Joel Roca has been caught in an offside position.
49
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Joel Roca from Girona took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Fran Beltrán.
46
Update Update
Hugo Rincón from Girona committed a foul.
46
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Osasuna 0, Girona 0.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway, with the score still tied at Osasuna 0, Girona 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be no additional time added.
44
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Joel Roca from Girona was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
44
Update Update
Valentin Rosier from Osasuna committed a foul.
44
Update Update
Iker Muñoz from Osasuna was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Viktor Tsygankov from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
42
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Offside call against Girona. Joel Roca has been flagged for being in an offside position.
39
Update Update
Viktor Tsygankov from Girona committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Viktor Tsygankov from Girona has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
36
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is deflected. Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Iker Muñoz during a quick counterattack.
34
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Enzo Boyomo from Osasuna heads the ball from the center of the box, but Paulo Gazzaniga from Girona makes a great save, pushing it to the right corner. The assist came from Jon Moncayola, who delivered a precise cross.
34
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Osasuna after Hugo Rincón allowed the ball to go out.
31
Update Update
Alejandro Catena from Osasuna committed a foul.
31
Update Update
Joel Roca from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
30
Update Update
Rubén García from Osasuna committed a foul.
30
Update Update
Joel Roca from Girona was awarded a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Arnau Martínez allowed the ball to go out.
28
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort unfolds as Valentin Rosier from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Paulo Gazzaniga from Girona makes a great save, denying the attempt by stopping the ball in the top center of the goal.
27
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Enzo Boyomo of Osasuna attempted a header from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Víctor Muñoz, who delivered a cross.
26
Update Update
Daley Blind commits a foul against Girona.
26
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
25
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Aimar Oroz from Osasuna fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Rubén García.
23
Update Update
Vitor Reis from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
23
Update Update
Ante Budimir from Osasuna committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Víctor Muñoz from Osasuna earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
21
Update Update
Hugo Rincón from Girona committed a foul.
19
Attempt Attempt
A new offensive play unfolds as Ante Budimir from Osasuna takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box. However, Paulo Gazzaniga from Girona makes a fantastic save, denying the attempt at the top center of the goal. The assist came from Rubén García, who delivered a precise cross.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a play that resulted in Paulo Gazzaniga conceding.
18
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a deflection off Paulo Gazzaniga.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after a deflection off Paulo Gazzaniga.
12
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Osasuna, following a save made by Paulo Gazzaniga.
10
Update Update
Javi Galán of Osasuna committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Azzedine Ounahi from Girona has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Hugo Rincón from Girona earned a free kick in the defensive area.
8
Update Update
Aimar Oroz from Osasuna committed a foul.
1
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Osasuna after Arnau Martínez allowed the ball to go out of play.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Osasuna exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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