Osasuna vs FC Barcelona Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio El Sadar Sat, 2 May - 7:00 PM
La Liga
Osasuna OSA
1 Winner 2
FC Barcelona BAR
Full Time Sat, 2 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Raúl García - 88'
Goal
|
Goal
Ferran Torres - 86'
Robert Lewandowski - 81'

CONTEXT

FC Barcelona clinched a 2-1 victory against Osasuna in a competitive La Liga clash at El Sadar, extending their strong form. The first half finished 0-0, with Barcelona controlling 70% possession while Osasuna's defense repelled early pressure at just 30% share. Post-interval, the visitors struck twice to secure the points, though the hosts pulled one back late. Recognized pre-match as the stronger team, Barcelona delivered a performance marked by a significant 43.5% structural deviation, showcasing superior chance conversion. No red cards marred proceedings, and absent second-half adjustments, the game unfolded predictably. This result aligns with market views, reinforcing Barcelona's title credentials while highlighting Osasuna's resilience despite limited ball control.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Barcelona's victory featured a significant 43.5% structural deviation favoring their pre-match stronger status.
  • Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiencies remained in line with pre-match evaluations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Match outcome fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without available data.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments influenced the match's progression.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion in game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

I. Díaz de Mera Escuderos

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Santaursula Aguado

1st Assistant

R. Campo Hernández

2nd Assistant

R. Ruipérez Marín

4th Official

Osasuna A. Lisci
A. Lisci
VS
FC Barcelona H. Flick
H. Flick
1.39
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.74
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sevilla Rank: 72 W
Athletic Club Rank: 77 L
Real Betis Rank: 81 D
Deportivo Alavés Rank: 76 D
Girona Rank: 75 W
Real Sociedad Rank: 81 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Getafe Rank: 76 W
Celta de Vigo Rank: 79 W
Espanyol Rank: 74 W
Atlético Madrid Rank: 89 W
Rayo Vallecano Rank: 77 W
Sevilla Rank: 72 W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 6 - 24
24

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Osasuna
20.8%
Draw
22.68%
Away FC Barcelona
56.52%

Movement

Changes since opening
Osasuna
+20.56%
Draw
+16.27%
FC Barcelona
-36.83%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78
96.4
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Osasuna
FC Barcelona
Power Score
78
96.4
League Position
10
1
Global Rank
77
4

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Osasuna — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Barcelona — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Osasuna FC Barcelona

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Osasuna

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FC Barcelona

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Barcelona
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.33
24.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
24.07
35.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Osasuna +1.02 Efficiency Index
vs
FC Barcelona -1.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Osasuna
FC Barcelona
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FC Barcelona
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Osasuna FC Barcelona
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Osasuna FC Barcelona
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Osasuna
FC Barcelona
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Osasuna
vs
FC Barcelona
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Osasuna FC Barcelona
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Osasuna 0.28
FC Barcelona 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Osasuna FC Barcelona
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Osasuna 0.03
FC Barcelona 0.03
Osasuna
FC Barcelona
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BAR had peak pressure around 82'.
  • BAR started the game with stronger pressure.
OSA Pressure BAR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BAR reached the top pressure at 82' (94.88).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Osasuna OSA Home
35 matches
FC Barcelona BAR Away
Match Record
5
Wins
24
6
Draws
6
24
Losses
5
Goals
25
Goals Scored
87
87
Goals Conceded
25
-62
Goal Difference
+62

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:06:46+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Herrera Pirón
Spain
1 S. Herrera Pirón
V. Rosier
France
19 V. Rosier
A. Catena Marugán
Spain
24 A. Catena Marugán
F. Boyomos
Cameroon
22 F. Boyomos
J. Galán Gil
Spain
20 J. Galán Gil
L. Torró Marset
Substitution
Spain
6 L. Torró Marset
J. Moncayola Tollar
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Moncayola Tollar
R. García Santos
Substitution
Spain
14 R. García Santos
M. Gómez Bordonado
Substitution
Spain
16 M. Gómez Bordonado
R. Moro Prescoli
Spain
18 R. Moro Prescoli
A. Budimir
Substitution
Croatia
17 A. Budimir
Pitch
J. Pons
Spain
13 J. Pons
J. Cavaco Cancelo
Portugal
2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
G. Martín Langreo
Spain
18 G. Martín Langreo
P. Cubarsí Paredes
Spain
5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
E. García
Substitution
Spain
24 E. García
P. López
Substitution
Spain
8 P. López
Pablo Gaviria
Substitution
Spain
6 Pablo Gaviria
F. López Marín
Spain
16 F. López Marín
D. Olmo Carvajal
Substitution
Spain
20 D. Olmo Carvajal
R. Bardghji
Substitution
Sweden
19 R. Bardghji
R. Lewandowski
Poland
9 R. Lewandowski

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio El Sadar
Capacity :
23576
Attendance :
22745
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos
Diego Santaursula Aguado
Rubén Campo Hernández
Rubén Ruipérez Marín

Statistics

Possession
OSA
36%
BAR
64%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
3 Big Chances Created 2
4 Shots 6
32 Dangerous attacks 77
30 Possession 70
3 Corners 7
10 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Goal Kicks 2
18 Dribble Attempts 12
10 Successful Dribbles 7
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58
21 Throwins 19
13 Successful Headers 12
1 Hit Woodwork 0
68 Ball Safe 67
2 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 2
6 Goal Attempts 8

Attacking

83 Attacks 118
2 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

61 Long Passes 37
270 Passes 657
70 Successful Passes Percentage 90
7 Key Passes 11
189 Successful Passes 590
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
27 Successful Long Passes 18

Defensive

46 Duels Won 49
14 Tackles 22
13 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 3

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
16 Total Crosses 21

Discipline

4 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Starting XI ▼

1
Sergio Herrera
Sergio Herrera Goalkeeper
6.91
19
Valentin Rosier
Valentin Rosier Defender
6.71
20
Javi Galán
Javi Galán Defender
6.52
22
Enzo Boyomo
Enzo Boyomo Defender
6.72
24
Alejandro Catena
Alejandro Catena Defender
6.9
6
Lucas Torró
Lucas Torró Midfielder
6.76
11
Kike Barja
Kike Barja
Attacker85'
6.59
7
Jon Moncayola
Jon Moncayola Midfielder
6.84
29
Asier Osambela
Asier Osambela
Midfielder85'
6.55
14
Rubén García
Rubén García Midfielder
6.88
23
Abel Bretones
Abel Bretones
Defender86'
6.64
16
Moi Gómez
Moi Gómez Midfielder
6.77
10
Aimar Oroz
Aimar Oroz
Midfielder70'
6.82
18
Raúl Moro
Raúl Moro Midfielder
6.68
17
Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir Attacker
7.04
9
Raúl García
Raúl García
Attacker70'
6.74
Referee : Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Starting XI ▼

13
Joan García
Joan García Goalkeeper
7.13
2
João Cancelo
João Cancelo Defender
7.16
5
Pau Cubarsí
Pau Cubarsí Defender
7.01
18
Gerard Martín
Gerard Martín Defender
6.95
24
Eric García
Eric García Defender
7.1
4
Ronald Araujo
Ronald Araujo
Defender82'
6.77
6
Gavi
Gavi Midfielder
6.72
21
Frenkie de Jong
Frenkie de Jong
Midfielder62'
7.31
8
Pedri
Pedri Midfielder
7.5
22
Marc Bernal
Marc Bernal
Midfielder88'
6.83
16
Fermín López
Fermín López Midfielder
7.25
19
Roony Bardghji
Roony Bardghji Midfielder
6.84
14
Marcus Rashford
Marcus Rashford
Attacker62'
7
20
Dani Olmo
Dani Olmo Midfielder
7.3
7
Ferran Torres
Ferran Torres
Attacker62'
6.99
9
Robert Lewandowski
Robert Lewandowski Attacker
6.85

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kike Barja
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+9'
Event
Raúl García
Header / 3rd Goal
88'
88'
Event
Marc Bernal → Pedri
10th Substitution
Event
Abel Bretones → Rubén García
9th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
Ferran Torres
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Kike Barja → Lucas Torró
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Asier Osambela → Jon Moncayola
8th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Ronald Araujo → Eric García
6th Substitution
81'
Event
Robert Lewandowski
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Jon Moncayola
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
74'
Event
Raúl García → Ante Budimir
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Aimar Oroz → Moi Gómez
5th Substitution
70'
62'
Event
Ferran Torres → Dani Olmo
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Marcus Rashford → Roony Bardghji
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Frenkie de Jong → Gavi
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Eric García
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Gavi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Flavien Enzo Thiedort Boyomo attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres Garcia takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Enrique Barja receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
R. Ruben Garcia Santos takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
88
Update Update
Marc Bernal is on, and Pedro Gonzalez Lopez is off.
86
Update Update
Abel Bretones is on, and Ruben Garcia Santos is off.
86
Update Update
Asier Osambela comes on for Jon Moncayola Tollar.
86
Attempt Attempt
Ferran Torres Garcia scores with a right-footed shot.
85
Update Update
Enrique Barja comes on for Lucas Torro Marset.
82
Update Update
Ronald Federico Araujo da Silva comes on for Eric Garcia.
81
Update Update
Goal! Robert Lewandowski scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Marcus Rashford.
81
Update Update
Robert Lewandowski scores with a header.
79
Attempt Attempt
Fermin Lopez takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jon Moncayola Tollar receives a yellow card.
71
Attempt Attempt
Lucas Torro Marset attempts a header but misses the shot.
71
Attempt Attempt
Jon Moncayola Tollar takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
70
Update Update
Raul Garcia de Haro replaces Ante Budimir.
70
Update Update
Aimar Oroz Huarte comes on for Moises Gomez Bordonado.
69
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Garcia Santos takes a right-footed shot but misses.
69
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Garcia Santos takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
63
Attempt Attempt
Marcus Rashford takes a left-footed shot but misses.
62
Update Update
Marcus Rashford comes on for Roony Bardghji.
62
Update Update
Ferran Torres Garcia comes on for Dani Olmo.
62
Update Update
Frenkie De Jong comes on for Pablo Martin Paez Gaviria.
60
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eric Garcia receives a yellow card.
53
Attempt Attempt
Fermin Lopez takes a left-footed shot but misses.
50
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
44
Attempt Attempt
Fermin Lopez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
38
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
36
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
32
Attempt Attempt
Pedro Golzalez Lopez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pablo Martin Paez Gaviria receives a yellow card.
22
Attempt Attempt
Roony Bardghji takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
21
Attempt Attempt
Roony Bardghji's left-footed shot is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Dani Olmo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Robert Lewandowski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Ante Budimir's left-footed shot is blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos.

CONCLUSION

FC Barcelona's 2-1 win over Osasuna validates their dominance, converting 70% possession into decisive second-half goals after a goalless interval. The significant structural deviation underscores their edge as the pre-identified stronger side, with efficiencies holding steady. Market alignment confirms the expected hierarchy, unhindered by cards or disruptions. Osasuna's 30% possession limited threats, yet their lone goal showed spirit. This outcome propels Barcelona forward in the league, blending control and opportunism seamlessly. A textbook away performance keeps pressure on rivals.

Osasuna vs FC Barcelona preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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