Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Atlético Madrid ATMSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Osasuna faced Atlético Madrid at home in La Liga, falling 1-2 despite controlling 58% possession. Atlético, the stronger team, took a 0-1 halftime lead and withstood pressure after receiving a red card in the second half. The visitors maintained defensive structure with 10 men, securing victory through clinical finishing. This result highlighted Atlético's resilience against a possession-dominant Osasuna side that created chances but lacked precision. A significant 63.6% structural deviation favored Atlético, while efficiency remained in line with norms. Market alignment held true, though xG data was unavailable for chance quality assessment. The red card introduced distortion in second-half play, altering dynamics without derailing Atlético's win.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Atlético Madrid benefited from a significant 63.6% structural deviation.
- Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
- xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
- Market alignment: Outcome aligned with pre-match market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated without data.
- Event impact: Atlético Madrid's red card was the primary event influencing match flow.
- Red card distortion: Red card distortion shaped second-half adjustments.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
J. Guzmán Mansilla
Other match officials
J. Martínez Guerrero
1st Assistant
I. Ríos Vargas
2nd Assistant
O. Rivera Olmedo
4th Official
League averages
La Liga Based on last 100 matches


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Osasuna
Atlético MadridMovement
Changes since opening
Osasuna
Atlético MadridTeam Power Ranking
i
77.29
88.69
Osasuna
Atlético MadridForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Osasuna
Atlético Madrid

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Osasuna ⚠ Proxy
Osasuna Atlético Madrid
Osasuna Atlético Madrid
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Osasuna
Osasuna Atlético Madrid


Osasuna Atlético Madrid


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- OSA had peak pressure around 102'.
- ATM started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 35 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:02:40+00:00
STARTING XI
Osasuna
Atlético Madrid





















































General Information
Next Match

Osasuna
vs

Espanyol
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: Estadio El Sadar

Atlético Madrid
vs

Girona
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 5:00 PM
Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
OsasunaManager ▼

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Atlético MadridManager ▼

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Events
CONCLUSION
Osasuna vs Atlético Madrid preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary