Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Gazovik Sun, 10 May - 9:30 AM
Premier League
Orenburg Orenburg
1 Winner 0
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov
Full Time Sun, 10 May 9:30 AM
Round 29 Regular Season
E. Bolotov - 23'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Orenburg secured a 1-0 victory over Krylya Sovetov in a tightly contested match. The home side took the lead in the first half with a single goal, entering halftime ahead 1-0. Despite dominating just 35% of possession compared to Krylya Sovetov's 65%, Orenburg maintained defensive solidity to preserve their advantage through the second half. No red cards were issued, and there were no notable second-half adjustments from either team. Identified as the stronger side pre-match, Krylya Sovetov failed to convert their territorial dominance into scoring opportunities, resulting in Orenburg's upset win. This outcome showed a significant structural deviation favoring the home team, with efficiency metrics remaining in line with expectations. The absence of xG data limits deeper chance quality analysis, but the final score underscores Orenburg's clinical finishing and resilience.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Orenburg's 1-0 win marked a 100% deviation rated as significant.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned fully with market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remain unevaluable without underlying data.
  • Event impact: No key events altered the match's structural flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards produced no distortion in game dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Sukhoy

Russia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

A. Bogdanov

2nd Assistant

Russia

I. Demeshko

1st Assistant

Russia

M. Cheremnykh

4th Official

Russia

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.63
Yellow cards / match 3.49
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.61
Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
VS
Krylya Sovetov S. Bulatov
S. Bulatov
1.15
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.15
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sochi Rank: 51 L
Rostov Rank: 60 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 53 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 70 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 64 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 70 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 W
Sochi Rank: 51 L
CSKA Moskva Rank: 70 D
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 60 D
Zenit Rank: 81 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 6 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Orenburg
0%
Draw
0%
Away Krylya Sovetov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.22
57.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Orenburg
Krylya Sovetov
Power Score
54.22
57.3
League Position
11
12
Global Rank
670
577

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Krylya Sovetov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Orenburg Krylya Sovetov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Krylya Sovetov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Orenburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
46.86
23.15
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.15
46.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Orenburg +2.73 Efficiency Index
vs
Krylya Sovetov -2.73 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
Krylya Sovetov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Orenburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Krylya Sovetov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Orenburg Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Orenburg Krylya Sovetov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
Krylya Sovetov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Orenburg
vs
Krylya Sovetov
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Orenburg Krylya Sovetov
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Orenburg 0.29
Krylya Sovetov 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Orenburg Krylya Sovetov
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Orenburg 0.00
Krylya Sovetov 0.02
Orenburg
Krylya Sovetov
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Orenburg had peak pressure around 83'.
  • Orenburg started the game with stronger pressure.
Orenburg Pressure Krylya Sovetov Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Orenburg reached the top pressure at 83' (68.33).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Orenburg Orenburg Home
13 matches
Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
4
Goals
18
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
18
+2
Goal Difference
-2

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:01:21+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
B. Ovsyannikov
Russia
1 B. Ovsyannikov
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 (C) F. Moufi
J. Palacios Santos
Substitution
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
D. Khotulev
Russia
4 D. Khotulev
D. Vedernikov
Russia
3 D. Vedernikov
E. Bolotov
Russia
57 E. Bolotov
E. Santos Queiroz
Brazil
37 E. Santos Queiroz
J. Thompson
Substitution
Chile
16 J. Thompson
D. Puebla
Substitution
Argentina
8 D. Puebla
F. Gürlük
Substitution
Türkiye
7 F. Gürlük
Alexandre Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
19 Alexandre Jesus
Pitch
S. Pesyakov
Russia
30 (C) S. Pesyakov
K. Pechenin
Belarus
2 K. Pechenin
S. Bozhin
Russia
47 S. Bozhin
N. Chernov
Russia
23 N. Chernov
F. Peixoto Costanza
Substitution
Brazil
22 F. Peixoto Costanza
M. Vityugov
Substitution
Russia
8 M. Vityugov
S. Babkin
Substitution
Russia
6 S. Babkin
I. Oleynikov
Substitution
Russia
19 I. Oleynikov
M. Banjac
Substitution
Serbia
14 M. Banjac
N. Rasskazov
Russia
15 N. Rasskazov
A. Rahmanović
Bosnia and Herzegovina
11 A. Rahmanović

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 09:30 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Gazovik
Capacity :
7520
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Aleksandr Bogdanov
Aleksey Sukhoy
Igor Demeshko
Mikhail Cheremnykh

Statistics

Possession
Orenburg
41%
Krylya Sovetov
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
9 Shots 4
48 Dangerous attacks 41
35 Possession 65
3 Corners 5
14 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

16 Throwins 19
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
12 Dribble Attempts 10
4 Successful Dribbles 4
17 Successful Headers 14
5 Goal Kicks 16
1 Assists 0
2 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
4 Injuries 1
13 Goal Attempts 8
59 Ball Safe 89

Attacking

64 Attacks 75

Possession

48 Long Passes 50
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
75 Successful Passes Percentage 82
207 Passes 422
27 Successful Long Passes 21
155 Successful Passes 347

Defensive

10 Interceptions 4
11 Tackles 15
47 Duels Won 49
4 Saves 3

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 4
21 Total Crosses 15

Discipline

17 Fouls 16
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Aleksey Sukhoy

Starting XI ▼

1
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
7.68
3
Danila Vedernikov
Danila Vedernikov Defender
7.02
4
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev Defender
7.14
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
6.72
26
Emil Tsenov
Emil Tsenov
Midfielder75'
6.59
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi (C) Defender
7.29
7
E. Gürlük
E. Gürlük Midfielder
6.47
20
D. Rybchinskiy
D. Rybchinskiy
Midfielder62'
6.7
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla Midfielder
6.33
27
Renat Golybin
Renat Golybin
Midfielder62'
7.07
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Midfielder
7.17
9
M. Savelyev
M. Savelyev
Attacker90+2'
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz Midfielder
7.36
57
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov Midfielder
7.3
19
Alexandre Jesus
Alexandre Jesus Attacker
6.78
30
G. Guzina
G. Guzina
Attacker62'
6.67
Referee : Aleksey Sukhoy

Starting XI ▼

30
S. Pesyakov
S. Pesyakov (C) Goalkeeper
7.05
2
Kirill Pechenin
Kirill Pechenin Defender
6.63
22
Fernando Costanza
Fernando Costanza Defender
6.91
20
K. Stolbov
K. Stolbov
Midfielder82'
6.34
23
Nikita Chernov
Nikita Chernov Defender
6.9
47
Sergey Bozhin
Sergey Bozhin Defender
6.78
6
S. Babkin
S. Babkin Midfielder
7.11
10
Vladimir Khubulov
Vladimir Khubulov
Midfielder89'
8
M. Vityugov
M. Vityugov Midfielder
6.58
26
Jimmy Marín
Jimmy Marín
Midfielder68'
6.56
14
Mihajlo Banjac
Mihajlo Banjac Midfielder
6.76
70
Artem Shumanskiy
Artem Shumanskiy
Attacker68'
6.52
15
N. Rasskazov
N. Rasskazov Midfielder
6.57
19
I. Oleynikov
I. Oleynikov Midfielder
7.18
91
V. Ignatenko
V. Ignatenko
Attacker82'
6.49
11
A. Rahmanović
A. Rahmanović Attacker
6.6

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
M. Savelyev → J. Thompson
10th Substitution
90+2'
89'
Event
Vladimir Khubulov → S. Babkin
9th Substitution
Event
Danila Vedernikov
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
84'
82'
Event
K. Stolbov → Fernando Costanza
8th Substitution
82'
Event
V. Ignatenko → I. Oleynikov
7th Substitution
Event
Emil Tsenov → Jhon Alex Palacios
6th Substitution
75'
71'
Event
Fernando Costanza
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
68'
Event
Jimmy Marín → M. Vityugov
4th Substitution
68'
Event
Artem Shumanskiy → Mihajlo Banjac
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Nikita Chernov
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Renat Golybin → Damián Puebla
1st Substitution
62'
Event
G. Guzina → Alexandre Jesus
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
D. Rybchinskiy → E. Gürlük
3rd Substitution
62'
59'
Event
M. Vityugov
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
45+3'
Event
Mihajlo Banjac
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Fahd Moufi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
32'
Event
E. Bolotov
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
23'
Event
Ildar Akhmetzyanov
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
7'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Maksim Savelyev comes on for Jordhy Thompson.
90
Attempt Attempt
Du Queiroz takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Du Queiroz takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
89
Update Update
Vladimir Khubulov is on, and Sergey Babkin is off.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Danila Vedernikov receives a yellow card.
82
Update Update
Kirill Stolbov comes on for Fernando Peixoto Costanza.
82
Update Update
Vladimir Ignatenko is on, and Ivan Oleynikov is off.
81
Attempt Attempt
Nikita Chernov takes a header but misses the shot.
80
Attempt Attempt
Du Queiroz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Renat Golybin's header is saved.
77
Attempt Attempt
Gedeon Guzina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Emil Tsenov replaces Jhon Alex Palacios.
73
Attempt Attempt
Jordhy Thompson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Jordhy Thompson's left-footed shot is blocked.
68
Update Update
Jimmy Marin is on, and Mihajlo Banjac is off.
68
Update Update
Jimmy Marin comes on for Maksim Vityugov.
66
Attempt Attempt
Fernando Peixoto Costanza takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oleynikov takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
62
Update Update
Renat Golybin comes on for Damian Puebla.
61
Update Update
Gedeon Guzina replaces Alexandre Jesus.
61
Update Update
Dmitri Rybchinskiy is on, and Emircan Gurluk is off.
58
Attempt Attempt
Jordhy Thompson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nikolay Rasskazov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Nikolay Rasskazov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mihajlo Banjac's left-footed shot is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oleynikov takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mihajlo Banjac receives a yellow card.
39
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Ivan Oleynikov with a header, but it misses the target.
34
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Oleynikov takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
32
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Fahd Moufi receives a yellow card.
31
Attempt Attempt
Maksim Vityugov takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Alexandre Jesus takes a shot with his head, but it's saved.
27
Attempt Attempt
Shot from Alexandre Jesus with his right foot, but he misses.
23
Attempt Attempt
Evgeni Bolotov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
23
Attempt Attempt
Evgeni Bolotov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
23
Attempt Attempt
Evgeni Bolotov takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
19
Attempt Attempt
Mihajlo Banjac takes a right-footed shot but it misses the target.
15
Attempt Attempt
Jordhy Thompson takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Du Queiroz takes a right-footed shot but misses.
2
Attempt Attempt
Fahd Moufi takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Orenburg exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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