Orenburg vs FK Nizjni Novgorod Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stadion Gazovik Wed, 22 Apr - 2:30 PM
Premier League
Orenburg Orenburg
2 Winner 1
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
Full Time Wed, 22 Apr 2:30 PM
Round 26 Regular Season
Alexandre Jesus - 82', 79'
Goal
|
Goal
Adrián Balboa - 41' (P)

CONTEXT

Orenburg defeated FK Nizjni Novgorod 2-1, overturning a 0-1 halftime deficit in a controlled performance. Holding 55% possession, the home team, identified as the stronger side, executed a second-half turnaround without red cards or major disruptions. The victory aligned with market expectations, registering a significant 100% structural deviation in Orenburg's favor. Efficiency remained in line with norms, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. No second-half adjustments were noted, allowing Orenburg to capitalize on their possession edge and secure the win through resilient play. This outcome underscores the home team's ability to convert dominance into points despite an early concession.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Orenburg showed a significant 100% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift was in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment is undetermined due to unavailable xG data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment held true with Orenburg's victory as the stronger team.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations cannot be evaluated without xG metrics.
  • Event impact: No events such as red cards or adjustments influenced the match outcome.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no distortion in the result.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

A. Frolov

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Safjan

1st Assistant

D. Bereznov

2nd Assistant

M. Plisko

4th Official

Orenburg I. Akhmetzyanov
I. Akhmetzyanov
VS
FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
0.92
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.23
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Rubin Kazan Rank: D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: D
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: L
Zenit Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Moskva Rank: D
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: D
Rostov Rank: L
Krasnodar Rank: L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Sochi Rank: W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 0 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Orenburg
0%
Draw
0%
Away FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
17.97
17.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Orenburg
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Power Score
17.97
17.63
League Position
11
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Orenburg — Opponent-weighted form score
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Orenburg FK Nizjni Novgorod

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Orenburg

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Orenburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
37.09
17.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.22
37.09
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Orenburg +2.29 Efficiency Index
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod -2.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
FK Nizjni Novgorod
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Orenburg ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy FK Nizjni Novgorod
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Orenburg FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Orenburg FK Nizjni Novgorod
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Orenburg
FK Nizjni Novgorod
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Orenburg
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Orenburg FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Orenburg 0.38
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Orenburg FK Nizjni Novgorod
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Orenburg 0.03
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.04
Orenburg
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Orenburg had peak pressure around 85'.
  • Orenburg started the game with stronger pressure.
Orenburg Pressure FK Nizjni Novgorod Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Orenburg reached the top pressure at 85' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Orenburg Orenburg Home
7 matches
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
0
Draws
0
3
Losses
4
Goals
11
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
11
+1
Goal Difference
-1

Data last updated: 2026-04-23T00:01:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
B. Ovsyannikov
Russia
1 B. Ovsyannikov
F. Moufi
Morocco
18 F. Moufi
J. Palacios Santos
Colombia
6 J. Palacios Santos
D. Khotulev
Russia
4 D. Khotulev
E. Tsenov
Substitution
Bulgaria
26 E. Tsenov
E. Santos Queiroz
Substitution
Brazil
37 E. Santos Queiroz
E. Bolotov
Substitution
Russia
57 E. Bolotov
J. Thompson
Chile
16 J. Thompson
D. Puebla
Substitution
Argentina
8 D. Puebla
F. Gürlük
Türkiye
7 F. Gürlük
M. Savelyev
Substitution
Russia
9 M. Savelyev
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
Y. Koledin
Russia
3 Y. Koledin
I. Kirsh
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
V. Aleksandrov
Russia
2 V. Aleksandrov
M. Shnaptsev
Russia
70 M. Shnaptsev
E. Smelov
Russia
17 E. Smelov
A. Ivlev
Substitution
Russia
77 A. Ivlev
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
M. Urvantsev
Substitution
14 M. Urvantsev
A. Balboa Camacho
Substitution
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
R. Cephas
Jamaica
21 R. Cephas

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 22, 2026, 02:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 26 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Gazovik
Capacity :
7520
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Dmitri Safjan
Denis Bereznov
Mikhail Plisko
Anton Frolov

Statistics

Possession
Orenburg
55%
FK Nizjni Novgorod
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
18 Shots 6
48 Dangerous attacks 35
55 Possession 45
10 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 12
41 Successful Dribbles Percentage 6
22 Dribble Attempts 16
24 Throwins 17
9 Successful Dribbles 1
1 Hit Woodwork 0
25 Successful Headers 14
0 Penalties 2
2 Assists 0
62 Ball Safe 80
5 Substitutions 5
4 Injuries 1
15 Goal Attempts 3

Attacking

66 Attacks 85

Possession

224 Successful Passes 171
319 Passes 264
57 Long Passes 75
24 Successful Long Passes 22
70 Successful Passes Percentage 65
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 29

Defensive

23 Tackles 20
0 Saves 4
7 Interceptions 14
73 Duels Won 45

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 12
12 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
11 Fouls 16

Lineup

Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

1
B. Ovsyannikov
B. Ovsyannikov Goalkeeper
6.86
4
D. Khotulev
D. Khotulev Defender
6.58
6
Jhon Alex Palacios
Jhon Alex Palacios Defender
6.75
18
Fahd Moufi
Fahd Moufi Defender
6.85
26
Emil Tsenov
Emil Tsenov Defender
6.9
32
Alexis Cantero
Alexis Cantero
Defender57'
6.56
7
E. Gürlük
E. Gürlük Midfielder
7
8
Damián Puebla
Damián Puebla Midfielder
6.68
27
Renat Golybin
Renat Golybin
Midfielder68'
6.69
16
J. Thompson
J. Thompson Midfielder
6.97
37
Du Queiroz
Du Queiroz Midfielder
6.81
78
Ruslan Kul
Ruslan Kul
Midfielder89'
6.7
57
E. Bolotov
E. Bolotov Midfielder
6.62
33
Philipp Hilmer
Philipp Hilmer
Midfielder89'
6.66
9
M. Savelyev
M. Savelyev Attacker
6.82
19
Alexandre Jesus
Alexandre Jesus
Attacker67'
2
6.55
Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
6.77
2
Viktor Aleksandrov
Viktor Aleksandrov Defender
6.59
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin Defender
6.67
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
6.68
70
Maksim Shnaptsev
Maksim Shnaptsev Defender
6.59
17
E. Smelov
E. Smelov Midfielder
6.41
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
6.79
69
Artem Sidorenko
Artem Sidorenko
Midfielder90+2'
6.71
77
Andrey Ivlev
Andrey Ivlev Midfielder
6.64
19
Nikita Ermakov
Nikita Ermakov
Midfielder70'
6.56
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Attacker
6.7
23
Juan Castillo
Juan Castillo
Defender70'
6.38
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev Attacker
6.55
88
Daniil Lesovoy
Daniil Lesovoy
Attacker69'
6.65
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas Attacker
6.62

Events

2ND-HALF
90+2'
Event
Artem Sidorenko → Luka Tičić
10th Substitution
Event
Ruslan Kul → Du Queiroz
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Philipp Hilmer → E. Bolotov
9th Substitution
89'
85'
Event
Vyacheslav Grulev → Juan Castillo
7th Substitution
Event
Alexis Cantero
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Alexandre Jesus
Header / 2nd Goal
82'
Event
Alexandre Jesus
Header / 1st Goal
79'
70'
Event
Nikita Ermakov → Andrey Ivlev
6th Substitution
70'
Event
Juan Castillo → Adrián Balboa
5th Substitution
69'
Event
Adrián Balboa
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
69'
Event
Daniil Lesovoy → Matvey Urvantsev
4th Substitution
69'
Event
6th Yellowcard
Event
Renat Golybin → Damián Puebla
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Alexandre Jesus → M. Savelyev
2nd Substitution
67'
66'
Event
Ilya Kirsch
Card adjusted
Event
Alexis Cantero → Emil Tsenov
1st Substitution
57'
55'
Event
Matvey Urvantsev
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
47'
Event
Andrey Ivlev
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
41'
Event
Adrián Balboa
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
B. Ovsyannikov
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'

CONCLUSION

Orenburg's 2-1 triumph over FK Nizjni Novgorod validated their stronger team status, reversing a 0-1 halftime score via second-half efficiency. With 55% possession and market alignment intact, the significant structural deviation highlighted their edge without red card interference. Lacking xG data limits performance nuance, but the result demonstrates effective resource use and comeback execution. This positions Orenburg positively, reflecting structural superiority in a disruption-free contest.

Orenburg vs FK Nizjni Novgorod preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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