Olympique Marseille vs Rennes Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Vélodrome Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille OM
3 Winner 1
Rennes REN
Full Time Sun, 17 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - 55'
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg - 2'
Goal
|
Goal
Estéban Lepaul - 84'

CONTEXT

Olympique Marseille secured a 3-1 victory over Rennes in a match that defied initial expectations. Starting strongly, Marseille established a 2-0 lead by halftime, putting pressure on the visitors from the outset. Although Rennes enjoyed greater possession at 55 percent compared to Marseille's 45 percent, they struggled to convert opportunities into goals. The stronger team on paper, Rennes, could not overcome the early deficit. Marseille's performance featured a notable structural deviation, achieving success against the anticipated outcome. With no red cards affecting either side, the game proceeded without major interruptions. The final whistle confirmed Marseille as the winner, showcasing their resilience and tactical discipline throughout the ninety minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Marseille achieved a significant deviation of 48.8 percent from pre-match expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift was in line with the overall performance metrics.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals alignment could not be determined due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: The outcome was aligned with market expectations as indicated by true alignment status.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations remained neutral without specific numerical inputs.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead of 2-0 had a decisive impact on the final 3-1 result.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued, resulting in zero distortion to the match dynamics.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Buquet

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

C. Mugnier

1st Assistant

France

A. Auger

2nd Assistant

France

S. Ben El Hadj

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.86
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
VS
Rennes F. Haise
F. Haise
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Le Havre Rank: 68 W
Nantes Rank: 65 L
Nice Rank: 71 D
Lorient Rank: 75 L
Metz Rank: 61 W
Monaco Rank: 79 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Rank: 73 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 82 L
Nantes Rank: 64 W
Strasbourg Rank: 77 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Brest Rank: 72 W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 11 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Olympique Marseille
51.19%
Draw
22.76%
Away Rennes
26.06%

Movement

Changes since opening
Olympique Marseille
-46.67%
Draw
+20.84%
Rennes
+25.84%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
78.85
79.51
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Olympique Marseille
Rennes
Power Score
78.85
79.51
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
69
64

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Rennes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Marseille Rennes

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Olympique Marseille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rennes

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Olympique Marseille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rennes
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Olympique Marseille Rennes
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Olympique Marseille Rennes
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Olympique Marseille
Rennes
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Olympique Marseille
vs
Rennes
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Olympique Marseille Rennes
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Olympique Marseille 0.00
Rennes 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Olympique Marseille Rennes
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Olympique Marseille 0.00
Rennes 0.00
Olympique Marseille
Rennes
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • REN had peak pressure around 97'.
  • OM started the game with stronger pressure.
OM Pressure REN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: REN reached the top pressure at 97' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Marseille OM Home
41 matches
Rennes REN Away
Match Record
19
Wins
11
11
Draws
11
11
Losses
19
Goals
64
Goals Scored
46
46
Goals Conceded
64
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T18:45:32+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
G. Rulli
Argentina
1 G. Rulli
T. Weah
Substitution
United States
22 T. Weah
L. Balerdi Rossa
Argentina
5 L. Balerdi Rossa
F. Medina
Argentina
32 F. Medina
E. Palmieri dos Santos
Italy
33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
T. Nadi
Substitution
Nigeria
6 T. Nadi
P. Højbjerg
Substitution
Denmark
23 P. Højbjerg
M. Greenwood
England
10 M. Greenwood
A. Gouiri
Algeria
9 A. Gouiri
I. Barbosa da Paixão
Substitution
Brazil
14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
P. Aubameyang
Gabon
17 P. Aubameyang
Pitch
M. Silistrie
France
50 M. Silistrie
Q. Merlin
France
26 Q. Merlin
A. Rouault
France
24 A. Rouault
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Morocco
48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
M. Nagida
Cameroon
18 M. Nagida
V. Rongier
France
21 V. Rongier
L. Blas
Substitution
France
10 L. Blas
M. Camara
France
45 M. Camara
S. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
17 S. Szymański
M. Al Tamari
Substitution
Jordan
11 M. Al Tamari
E. Lepaul
France
9 E. Lepaul

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Vélodrome
Capacity :
67395
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Ruddy Buquet
Cyril Mugnier
Alexis Auger
Salem Zyed Ben El Hadj

Statistics

Possession
OM
47%
REN
53%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
7 Big Chances Created 2
27 Shots 27
41 Dangerous attacks 57
45 Possession 55
4 Corners 11
10 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Dribble Attempts 22
10 Successful Dribbles 11
7 Successful Headers 14
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
22 Throwins 17
2 Assists 1
11 Goal Kicks 9
0 Hit Woodwork 2
16 Goal Attempts 19
75 Ball Safe 84
1 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

95 Attacks 103
6 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

19 Key Passes 20
22 Successful Long Passes 24
400 Passes 464
329 Successful Passes 396
53 Long Passes 43
42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 56
82 Successful Passes Percentage 85

Defensive

10 Interceptions 7
44 Duels Won 53
4 Saves 8
18 Tackles 17

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 32
2 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

11 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Ruddy Buquet

Starting XI ▼

1
Gerónimo Rulli
Gerónimo Rulli Goalkeeper
6.96
5
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi Defender
6.79
22
Timothy Weah
Timothy Weah Defender
6.84
28
Benjamin Pavard
Benjamin Pavard
Defender88'
6.82
32
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Defender
6.84
33
Emerson
Emerson Defender
7.04
6
Tochukwu Nnadi
Tochukwu Nnadi Midfielder
6.57
71
Nouhoum Kamissoko
Nouhoum Kamissoko
Midfielder83'
6.75
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri Midfielder
7.04
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Midfielder
7.53
14
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão Midfielder
6.89
18
Arthur Vermeeren
Arthur Vermeeren
Midfielder72'
6.63
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder
7.18
27
Quinten Timber
Quinten Timber
Midfielder82'
6.75
17
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Attacker
6.96
Referee : Ruddy Buquet

Starting XI ▼

50
Mathys Silistrie
Mathys Silistrie Goalkeeper
5.65
18
Mahamadou Nagida
Mahamadou Nagida Defender
6.6
24
Anthony Rouault
Anthony Rouault Defender
6.85
26
Quentin Merlin
Quentin Merlin Defender
6.92
48
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal Defender
6.72
10
Ludovic Blas
Ludovic Blas Midfielder
6.91
65
Nordan Mukiele
Nordan Mukiele
Attacker79'
6.58
11
Mousa Tamari
Mousa Tamari Midfielder
6.91
70
Arnaud Nordin
Arnaud Nordin
Attacker67'
6.91
17
Sebastian Szymanski
Sebastian Szymanski Midfielder
6.92
7
Breel Embolo
Breel Embolo
Attacker46'
6.84
21
Valentin Rongier
Valentin Rongier Midfielder
7.21
45
Mahdi Camara
Mahdi Camara Midfielder
6.85
9
Estéban Lepaul
Estéban Lepaul Attacker
6.86

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Benjamin Pavard
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Benjamin Pavard → Timothy Weah
7th Substitution
88'
84'
Event
Estéban Lepaul
Header / 4th Goal
Event
Nouhoum Kamissoko → Tochukwu Nnadi
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Quinten Timber → Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
5th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Nordan Mukiele → Ludovic Blas
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Mahdi Camara
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Amine Gouiri
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Arthur Vermeeren → Igor Paixão
3rd Substitution
72'
67'
Event
Arnaud Nordin → Mousa Tamari
2nd Substitution
Event
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
55'
Event
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Breel Embolo → Sebastian Szymanski
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Amine Gouiri
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
10'
Event
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Breel Donald Embolo's header is saved.
90
Attempt Attempt
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Breel Donald Embolo attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Benjamin Pavard receives a yellow card.
89
Attempt Attempt
Arnaud Nordin's right-footed shot is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Breel Donald Embolo attempts a header but misses the shot.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution: Benjamin Pavard replaces Timothy Weah.
87
Attempt Attempt
Mahamadou Nagida takes a left-footed shot but misses.
87
Attempt Attempt
Quentin Merlin takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Nordan Mukiele's right-footed shot is blocked.
84
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
83
Update Update
Nouhoum Kamissoko is on, and Tochukwu Nnadi is off.
82
Update Update
Quinten Timber replaces Pierre Emile Hojbjerg.
81
Attempt Attempt
Mahdi Camara takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
81
Attempt Attempt
Mahdi Camara takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
79
Attempt Attempt
Breel Donald Embolo takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
79
Update Update
Nordan Mukiele comes on for Ludovic Blas.
79
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mahdi Camara receives a yellow card.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Amine Gouiri receives a yellow card.
72
Update Update
Arthur Vermeeren replaces Igor Paixao.
71
Attempt Attempt
Timothy Weah takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao takes a right-footed shot but misses.
68
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Amine Gouiri's right-footed shot is blocked.
67
Update Update
Arnaud Nordin replaces Mousa Tamari.
66
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Emile Hojbjerg takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Emile Hojbjerg takes a left-footed shot but misses.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Blas misses with a left-footed shot.
64
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Blas takes a left-footed shot but misses.
61
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
59
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
55
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scores, making it 3-0.
55
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang takes a right-footed shot and scores.
51
Attempt Attempt
Amine Gouiri's right-footed shot is blocked.
50
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
49
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card for Pierre Emile Hojbjerg.
47
Attempt Attempt
Breel Donald Embolo takes a right-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Breel Donald Embolo comes on for Sebastian Szymanski.
46
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's header is saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Timothy Weah's right-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
45
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
43
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a left-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood takes a right-footed shot but misses.
38
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Rongier takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
38
Attempt Attempt
Mahdi Camara takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
37
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari takes a right-footed shot but misses.
36
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
27
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao's right-footed shot is blocked.
27
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao's right-footed shot is blocked.
25
Attempt Attempt
Mousa Tamari's left-footed shot is blocked.
23
Attempt Attempt
Ludovic Blas takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
22
Attempt Attempt
Leonardo Balerdi attempts a header but misses the shot.
20
Attempt Attempt
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
13
Attempt Attempt
Esteban Lepaul takes a shot with his head but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Amine Gouiri scores with a right-footed shot.
10
Attempt Attempt
Emerson Palmieri dos Santos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
4
Attempt Attempt
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal attempts a header but misses the shot.
2
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Emile Hojbjerg scores with a right-footed shot.
1
Attempt Attempt
Igor Paixao's right-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Olympique Marseille 3-1 Rennes. Structural assessment: Olympique Marseille exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Olympique Marseille vs Rennes preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.