Olympique Marseille vs Rennes Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Vélodrome Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille OM
Versus
Rennes REN
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Olympique Marseille host Rennes in Ligue 1 (Regular Season) at Stade Vélodrome. Domestically, Olympique Marseille sit 6th in the table while Rennes are 5th. Power ranking favours Rennes by 0.6 points heading into this fixture.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Rennes possess a slight 0.6-point power advantage over Marseille, with league standings of 5th versus 6th.
  • Form: Rennes lead significantly in form with a 31.44 score compared to Marseille's 9.78.
  • Squad: Close power scores of 79.2 for Marseille and 79.85 for Rennes highlight evenly matched squad strengths.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable due to low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables absent as full data not enabled.
  • Market: Olympique Marseille 46.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.2% (Δ+0%) | Rennes 28% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
VS
Rennes F. Haise
F. Haise
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.95
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Le Havre Rank: 68 W
Nantes Rank: 65 L
Nice Rank: 71 D
Lorient Rank: 75 L
Metz Rank: 61 W
Monaco Rank: 80 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Rank: 73 W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 82 L
Nantes Rank: 64 W
Strasbourg Rank: 80 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 W
Brest Rank: 73 W
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 11 - 11
11
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Olympique Marseille
46.82%
Draw
25.16%
Away Rennes
28.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
79.2
79.85
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Olympique Marseille
Rennes
Power Score
79.2
79.85
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
68
61

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Rennes — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Marseille Rennes

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Marseille OM Home
41 matches
Rennes REN Away
Match Record
19
Wins
11
11
Draws
11
11
Losses
19
Goals
64
Goals Scored
46
46
Goals Conceded
64
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T01:08:26+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
G. Rulli
1 G. Rulli
B. Pavard
28 B. Pavard
L. Balerdi Rossa
5 L. Balerdi Rossa
F. Medina
32 F. Medina
E. Palmieri dos Santos
33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
T. Nadi
6 T. Nadi
P. Højbjerg
23 P. Højbjerg
M. Greenwood
10 M. Greenwood
Q. Timber
27 Q. Timber
I. Barbosa da Paixão
14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
A. Gouiri
9 A. Gouiri
Pitch
M. Silistrie
50 M. Silistrie
Q. Merlin
26 Q. Merlin
A. Rouault
24 A. Rouault
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
M. Nagida
18 M. Nagida
M. Al Tamari
11 M. Al Tamari
V. Rongier
21 V. Rongier
M. Camara
45 M. Camara
S. Szymański
17 S. Szymański
E. Lepaul
9 E. Lepaul
L. Blas
10 L. Blas

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Vélodrome
Capacity :
67395
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Gerónimo Rulli
Gerónimo Rulli Goalkeeper
6.96
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri Centre Forward
7.04
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Defensive Midfield
7.18
28
Benjamin Pavard
Benjamin Pavard Right Back
6.82
33
Emerson
Emerson Left Back
7.04
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Right Wing
7.53
6
Tochukwu Nnadi
Tochukwu Nnadi Defensive Midfield
6.57
14
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão Left Wing
6.89
27
Quinten Timber
Quinten Timber Attacking Midfield
6.75
32
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Left Back
6.84
5
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi Right Back
6.79

Starting XI ▼

50
Mathys Silistrie
Mathys Silistrie Goalkeeper
5.65
11
Mousa Tamari
Mousa Tamari Midfielder
6.91
17
Sebastian Szymanski
Sebastian Szymanski Midfielder
6.92
9
Estéban Lepaul
Estéban Lepaul Attacker
6.86
10
Ludovic Blas
Ludovic Blas Attacker
6.91
45
Mahdi Camara
Mahdi Camara Central Midfield
6.85
18
Mahamadou Nagida
Mahamadou Nagida Right Back
6.6
21
Valentin Rongier
Valentin Rongier Central Midfield
7.21
24
Anthony Rouault
Anthony Rouault Left Back
6.85
26
Quentin Merlin
Quentin Merlin Left Back
6.92
48
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal Right Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

This Ligue 1 clash pits two near-identical powerhouses against each other, but Rennes' form dominance stands out as the defining factor. Marseille's home advantage at Stade Vélodrome could level the playing field, yet their lagging form score suggests vulnerability. Without efficiency or set-piece insights, the matchup hinges on execution in open play and squad cohesion. Rennes' momentum positions them to exploit any Marseille lapses, potentially securing a vital away result. Expect a competitive affair where tactical discipline and key individual battles decide the outcome in this closely contested mid-table skirmish.

Olympique Marseille vs Rennes preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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