Olympique Marseille vs Metz Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Vélodrome Fri, 10 Apr - 7:05 PM
Ligue 1
Olympique Marseille OM
3 Winner 1
Metz MTZ
Full Time Fri, 10 Apr 7:05 PM
Round 29 Regular Season
Hamed Junior Traoré - 90+3'
Igor Paixão - 48'
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - 13'
Goal
|
Goal
Giorgi Tsitaishvili - 49'

CONTEXT

The match is finished, with Olympique Marseille recording a 3-1 victory over Metz at full time after leading 1-0 at the interval. Marseille controlled proceedings and added to their tally in the second half while Metz managed a late reply that proved insufficient to change the outcome. Marseille entered the fixture as strong favorites with a 75.8 percent implied win probability, and the result showed a significant deviation in their favor. The home side, identified as the stronger team throughout, delivered a performance that aligned closely with pre-match projections. Their efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, producing a comfortable win without reliance on any red-card incidents or major disruptive events, as both teams completed the match with full complements. Possession was shared fairly evenly, with Marseille holding 54 percent and Metz 46 percent. The outcome ultimately reflected the pre-match view of Marseille’s superiority, confirming the projected hierarchy between the sides.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Olympique Marseille showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Frappart

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Berchebru

1st Assistant

C. Favre

2nd Assistant

M. Leleu

4th Official

Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
VS
Metz B. Tavenot
B. Tavenot
1.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.62
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Monaco Rank: L
LOSC Lille Rank: L
Auxerre Rank: W
Toulouse Rank: W
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: W
Brest Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: D
Rennes Rank: D
Toulouse Rank: L
Lens Rank: L
Brest Rank: L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 6 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Olympique Marseille
75.8%
Draw
15.33%
Away Metz
8.87%

Movement

Changes since opening
Olympique Marseille
-19.81%
Draw
+11.13%
Metz
+8.68%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.42
11.83
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Olympique Marseille
Metz
Power Score
29.42
11.83
League Position
3
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Metz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Marseille Metz

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Olympique Marseille

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Metz

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Olympique Marseille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metz
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.52
16.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.30
38.52
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Olympique Marseille +2.17 Efficiency Index
vs
Metz -2.17 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Olympique Marseille
Metz
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Olympique Marseille ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Metz
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Olympique Marseille Metz
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Olympique Marseille Metz
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Olympique Marseille
Metz
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Olympique Marseille
vs
Metz
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Olympique Marseille Metz
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Olympique Marseille 0.32
Metz 0.20
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Olympique Marseille Metz
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Olympique Marseille 0.03
Metz 0.05
Olympique Marseille
Metz
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • MTZ had peak pressure around 53'.
  • OM started the game with stronger pressure.
OM Pressure MTZ Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: MTZ reached the top pressure at 53' (84.08).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Marseille OM Home
18 matches
Metz MTZ Away
Match Record
10
Wins
2
6
Draws
6
2
Losses
10
Goals
34
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
34
+18
Goal Difference
-18

Data last updated: 2026-04-11T00:03:20+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Rulli
Argentina
1 G. Rulli
B. Pavard
France
28 B. Pavard
L. Balerdi Rossa
Argentina
5 L. Balerdi Rossa
F. Medina
Argentina
32 F. Medina
T. Weah
United States
22 T. Weah
P. Højbjerg
Denmark
23 P. Højbjerg
Q. Timber
Substitution
Netherlands
27 Q. Timber
I. Barbosa da Paixão
Substitution
Brazil
14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
M. Greenwood
Substitution
England
10 M. Greenwood
A. Gouiri
Algeria
9 A. Gouiri
P. Aubameyang
Substitution
Gabon
17 P. Aubameyang
Pitch
P. Sy
Senegal
61 P. Sy
M. Colin
Substitution
France
2 M. Colin
J. Gbamin
Ivory Coast
5 J. Gbamin
S. Sané
Senegal
38 S. Sané
K. Kouao
Ghana
39 K. Kouao
A. Touré
Substitution
Senegal
12 A. Touré
J. Deminguet
Substitution
France
20 J. Deminguet
H. Tsitaishvili
Georgia
7 H. Tsitaishvili
G. Hein
France
10 G. Hein
B. Sarr
Senegal
70 B. Sarr
H. Diallo
Senegal
30 H. Diallo

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 10, 2026, 07:05 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 29 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Vélodrome
Capacity :
67395
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Stéphanie Frappart
Mikael Berchebru
Cédric Favre
Mickaël Leleu

Statistics

Possession
OM
54%
MTZ
46%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 1
18 Shots 6
56 Dangerous attacks 30
54 Possession 46
7 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

8 Successful Dribbles 11
13 Dribble Attempts 18
62 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
22 Throwins 10
3 Goal Kicks 11
3 Assists 1
9 Successful Headers 3
0 Hit Woodwork 1
4 Substitutions 3
17 Goal Attempts 3
76 Ball Safe 77
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 1
110 Attacks 81

Possession

17 Successful Long Passes 23
424 Successful Passes 357
33 Long Passes 45
489 Passes 427
87 Successful Passes Percentage 84
52 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
16 Key Passes 5

Defensive

38 Duels Won 38
13 Tackles 12
15 Interceptions 17
1 Saves 6

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 13
6 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

12 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Stéphanie Frappart

Starting XI ▼

1
Gerónimo Rulli
Gerónimo Rulli Goalkeeper
5
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi Defender
28
Benjamin Pavard
Benjamin Pavard Defender
32
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Defender
14
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão Midfielder
8
Himad Abdelli
Himad Abdelli
Midfielder90+1'
22
Timothy Weah
Timothy Weah Midfielder
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Midfielder
27
Quinten Timber
Quinten Timber Midfielder
6
Tochukwu Nnadi
Tochukwu Nnadi
Midfielder82'
9
Amine Gouiri
Amine Gouiri Attacker
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Attacker
20
Hamed Junior Traoré
Hamed Junior Traoré
Midfielder82'
17
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Attacker
18
Arthur Vermeeren
Arthur Vermeeren
Midfielder72'
Referee : Stéphanie Frappart

Starting XI ▼

61
Pape Sy
Pape Sy Goalkeeper
2
Maxime Colin
Maxime Colin Defender
97
Fodé Ballo-Touré
Fodé Ballo-Touré
Defender82'
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Defender
38
Sadibou Sané
Sadibou Sané Defender
39
Koffi Kouao
Koffi Kouao Defender
7
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Giorgi Tsitaishvili Midfielder
10
Gauthier Hein
Gauthier Hein Midfielder
12
Alpha Touré
Alpha Touré Midfielder
19
Lucas Michal
Lucas Michal
Attacker87'
20
Jessy Deminguet
Jessy Deminguet Midfielder
34
Nathan Mbala
Nathan Mbala
Attacker81'
70
Bouna Sarr
Bouna Sarr Midfielder
30
Habib Diallo
Habib Diallo Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hamed Junior Traoré
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
90+3'
Event
Himad Abdelli → Igor Paixão
7th Substitution
90+1'
87'
Event
Lucas Michal → Alpha Touré
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Koffi Kouao
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Tochukwu Nnadi → Quinten Timber
3rd Substitution
82'
Event
Hamed Junior Traoré → Mason Greenwood
5th Substitution
82'
82'
Event
Fodé Ballo-Touré → Maxime Colin
4th Substitution
81'
Event
Nathan Mbala → Jessy Deminguet
2nd Substitution
Event
Arthur Vermeeren → Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
1st Substitution
72'
56'
Event
Maxime Colin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
49'
Event
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Igor Paixão
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
48'
1ST-HALF
Event
Facundo Medina
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+2'
Event
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Goal ruled out
32'
Event
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Igor Paixão from Marseille.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Marseille: Himad Abdelli replaces Igor Paixão.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Hamed Traoré scores for Marseille with a right-footed shot from the center of the box. The score is now Marseille 3, Metz 1.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Marseille leading Metz 3-1.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Marseille: Himad Abdelli replaces Igor Paixão.
89
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Pierre-Emile Højbjerg from Marseille.
88
Update Update
Arthur Vermeeren of Marseille won a free kick in an attacking position.
88
Update Update
Dangerous play by Lucas Michal of Metz.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Lucas Michal replaces Alpha Touré.
87
Update Update
Nathan Mbala from Metz misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left. Giorgi Tsitaishvili provided the assist.
85
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Igor Paixão of Marseille.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Koffi Kouao from Metz receives a yellow card for a foul.
84
Corner Corner
Hamed Traoré from Marseille had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, just missing the top left corner. Facundo Medina provided the assist.
83
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Amine Gouiri from Marseille shoots with his right foot from outside the box, but it goes high. Assist by Arthur Vermeeren.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Fodé Ballo-Touré replaces Maxime Colin.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Marseille: Tochukwu Nnadi replaces Quinten Timber.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Marseille: Hamed Traoré replaces Mason Greenwood.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Metz: Nathan Mbala replaces Jessy Deminguet.
80
Update Update
Facundo Medina from Marseille won a free kick on the left wing.
80
Update Update
Foul committed by Jessy Deminguet of Metz.
80
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Benjamin Pavard of Marseille headed the ball from the center of the box.
78
Update Update
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg from Marseille won a free kick on the right wing.
78
Update Update
Foul committed by Bouna Sarr - Metz.
77
Update Update
Quinten Timber of Marseille won a free kick in defense.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Alpha Touré of Metz.
76
Corner Corner
Metz wins a corner after Facundo Medina concedes.
75
Corner Corner
Marseille wins a corner after Jean-Philippe Gbamin concedes.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Marseille: Arthur Vermeeren replaces Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
70
Update Update
Igor Paixão from Marseille won a free kick on the left wing.
70
Update Update
Koffi Kouao from Metz commits a foul.
69
Corner Corner
Quinten Timber from Marseille had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box, just missing the top left corner. The assist was provided by Benjamin Pavard.
67
Corner Corner
Metz wins a corner after Igor Paixão concedes.
67
Update Update
Igor Paixão is flagged for offside for Marseille.
65
Attempt Attempt
Mason Greenwood from Marseille had a missed chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box but missing the target.
64
Update Update
New attacking attempt. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille shoots with his right foot from the right side of the box, but Pape Sy, the goalkeeper for Metz, makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Benjamin Pavard.
63
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz won a free kick in defense.
63
Update Update
Quinten Timber fouled a player from Marseille.
62
Attempt Attempt
Bouna Sarr's shot from the right side of the box is blocked. Gauthier Hein provided the assist.
62
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Jessy Deminguet from Metz takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved by the goalkeeper Gerónimo Rulli in the center of the goal. The assist came from Bouna Sarr with a through ball.
61
Update Update
Bouna Sarr of Metz won a free kick in defense.
61
Update Update
Fouled by Facundo Medina of Marseille.
59
Corner Corner
Marseille wins a corner after Pape Sy concedes.
59
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Alpha Touré from Metz.
59
Update Update
Leonardo Balerdi of Marseille attempts a header from the center of the box, but the goalkeeper makes a save in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Amine Gouiri with a cross.
59
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Mason Greenwood of Marseille takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Pape Sy of Metz. The assist comes from Pierre-Emile Højbjerg.
56
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Maxime Colin from Metz receives a yellow card for a foul.
56
Update Update
Timothy Weah won a free kick for Marseille on the right wing.
56
Update Update
Maxime Colin from Metz committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Quinten Timber against Marseille.
50
Corner Corner
Marseille is awarded a corner after Koffi Kouao concedes.
49
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Metz scores to make it 2-1 against Marseille. Giorgi Tsitaishvili finds the net with a left-footed shot from the left side of the box, assisted by Gauthier Hein's header.
48
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marseille leads Metz 2-0. Igor Paixão scores for Marseille with a right-footed shot from outside the box.
47
Corner Corner
Metz wins a corner after Timothy Weah concedes.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Marseille 1, Metz 0.
45
Update Update
Benjamin Pavard of Marseille won a free kick on the right wing.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Igor Paixão of Marseille.
45
Update Update
Koffi Kouao from Metz won a free kick in defense.
45
Update Update
Fouled by Facundo Medina of Marseille.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Marseille leading Metz 1-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Gauthier Hein from Metz missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. Bouna Sarr provided the assist with a cross.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 3 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
Jessy Deminguet from Metz won a free kick in defense.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Facundo Medina of Marseille receives a yellow card for a foul.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Gauthier Hein of Metz.
44
Attempt Attempt
Gauthier Hein from Metz hits the woodwork with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
41
Update Update
Timothy Weah is flagged for offside for Marseille.
40
Corner Corner
Igor Paixão from Marseille had a missed chance, heading the ball from the right side of the six-yard box just near the goal. The assist came from Amine Gouiri, who delivered a cross following a corner.
39
Corner Corner
Marseille wins a corner after Pape Sy concedes.
39
Corner Corner
Marseille wins a corner after Pape Sy concedes.
36
Update Update
Bouna Sarr from Metz won a free kick on the right wing.
36
Update Update
Foul committed by Igor Paixão of Marseille.
35
Update Update
Foul committed by Koffi Kouao of Metz.
35
Update Update
Leonardo Balerdi from Marseille won a free kick in defense.
34
Update Update
Fouled by Pierre-Emile Højbjerg of Marseille.
34
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz won a free kick in defense.
32
Update Update
Offside called against Marseille. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is offside.
31
Corner Corner
Mason Greenwood of Marseille misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from outside the box but sending it high. The assist came from Amine Gouiri after a corner.
30
Corner Corner
Marseille wins a corner after Pape Sy concedes.
30
Corner Corner
Mason Greenwood of Marseille attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from the right side of the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Pape Sy of Metz. The assist was provided by Amine Gouiri.
29
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Quinten Timber of Marseille.
25
Update Update
Fouled by Pierre-Emile Højbjerg of Marseille.
25
Update Update
Alpha Touré from Metz won a free kick in defense.
21
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity for Marseille. Amine Gouiri's right-footed shot from the center of the box goes high and wide to the left. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang provided the assist after a quick break.
21
Update Update
Bouna Sarr from Metz won a free kick in defense.
21
Update Update
Fouled by Facundo Medina of Marseille.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille headed the ball from the center of the box.
17
Update Update
Timothy Weah fouled a player from Marseille.
17
Update Update
Jessy Deminguet of Metz won a free kick in defense.
13
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Marseille leads 1-0 against Metz. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the top left corner, assisted by Mason Greenwood after a fast break.
13
Corner Corner
Metz wins a corner after Leonardo Balerdi concedes.
9
Update Update
Alpha Touré of Metz won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Fouled by Pierre-Emile Højbjerg of Marseille.
8
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from Marseille shoots with his right foot from the center of the box, but Pape Sy from Metz saves it in the right corner.
8
Corner Corner
Marseille wins a corner after Sadibou Sané concedes.
5
Corner Corner
Marseille is awarded a corner after Sadibou Sané concedes it.
2
Update Update
Maxime Colin of Metz won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang of Marseille.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Olympique Marseille exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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