Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Groupama Stadium Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Olympique Lyonnais LYO
0 Winner 4
Lens LEN
Full Time Sun, 17 May 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
|
Goal
Florian Thauvin - 53'
Florian Sotoca - 45+1'
Wesley Saïd  - 32', 20'

CONTEXT

Following the conclusion of the match between Olympique Lyonnais and Lens, the away side secured a commanding 0-4 victory. The halftime score stood at 0-3, indicating an early dominance by the visitors. Lyon maintained a possession advantage of 57 percent to 43 percent but failed to convert this into goals. The pre-match assessment identified Lyon as the stronger team, yet the result showed a significant deviation with Lens as the beneficiary. No red cards were shown to either side throughout the ninety minutes. The efficiency metrics remained in line with the overall performance trends observed on the field. This outcome highlighted the unpredictable nature of the contest despite initial projections.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Lens recorded a significant structural deviation by overcoming the stronger home side.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with performance data throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment could not be assessed due to the absence of expected goals metrics.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment was not observed as the result contradicted pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations were not applicable given the null values in available statistics.
  • Event impact: The early goals created a substantial event impact leading to the 0-4 final score.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion was absent with no dismissals affecting either team.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

F. Letexier

France 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Pasqualotti

1st Assistant

France

M. Rahmouni

2nd Assistant

France

G. Angoula

4th Official

France

League averages

Ligue 1 Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.86
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.28
Olympique Lyonnais P. Rodrigues Fonseca
P. Rodrigues Fonseca
VS
Lens P. Sage
P. Sage
1.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Toulouse Rank: 74 L
Rennes Rank: 80 W
Auxerre Rank: 69 W
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 W
Lorient Rank: 75 W
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
Nantes Rank: 67 W
Nice Rank: 72 D
Brest Rank: 73 D
Toulouse Rank: 74 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 5 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Olympique Lyonnais
61.21%
Draw
20.7%
Away Lens
18.1%

Movement

Changes since opening
Olympique Lyonnais
+60.56%
Draw
+18.79%
Lens
-79.34%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
82.33
81.94
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Olympique Lyonnais
Lens
Power Score
82.33
81.94
League Position
4
2
Global Rank
47
49

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Olympique Lyonnais — Opponent-weighted form score
Lens — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Olympique Lyonnais Lens

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Olympique Lyonnais

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lens

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency data not available for this match.

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Olympique Lyonnais ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lens
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Olympique Lyonnais Lens
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Olympique Lyonnais Lens
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Olympique Lyonnais
Lens
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Olympique Lyonnais
vs
Lens
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Olympique Lyonnais Lens
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Olympique Lyonnais 0.00
Lens 0.00
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Olympique Lyonnais Lens
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Olympique Lyonnais 0.00
Lens 0.00
Olympique Lyonnais
Lens
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LEN had peak pressure around 98'.
  • LEN started the game with stronger pressure.
LYO Pressure LEN Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LEN reached the top pressure at 98' (77.27).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Olympique Lyonnais LYO Home
23 matches
Lens LEN Away
Match Record
12
Wins
6
5
Draws
5
6
Losses
12
Goals
36
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
36
+14
Goal Difference
-14

Data last updated: 2026-05-17T18:45:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Greif
Slovakia
1 D. Greif
A. Maitland-Niles
Substitution
England
98 A. Maitland-Niles
C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
Angola
22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
M. Niakhaté
Senegal
19 M. Niakhaté
R. Kluivert
Substitution
Netherlands
21 R. Kluivert
A. Da Silva Santos
Brazil
16 A. Da Silva Santos
O. Mangala
Substitution
Belgium
5 O. Mangala
C. Tolisso
France
8 C. Tolisso
P. Šulc
Czech Republic
10 P. Šulc
E. Moreira de Sousa
Substitution
Brazil
9 E. Moreira de Sousa
A. Bastardo Moreira
Portugal
17 A. Bastardo Moreira
Pitch
M. Gorgelin
France
16 M. Gorgelin
M. Sarr
Substitution
France
20 M. Sarr
N. Čelik
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4 N. Čelik
K. Antonio
Substitution
France
32 K. Antonio
A. Masuaku
DR Congo
27 A. Masuaku
A. Haidara
Substitution
Mali
21 A. Haidara
A. Bulatović
Montenegro
5 A. Bulatović
S. Abdul Hamid
Substitution
Saudi Arabia
23 S. Abdul Hamid
W. Saïd
France
22 W. Saïd
F. Thauvin
Substitution
France
10 F. Thauvin
F. Sotoca
France
7 F. Sotoca

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Groupama Stadium
Capacity :
59186
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
François Letexier
Gwenaël Pasqualotti
Mehdi Rahmouni
Gaël Angoula

Statistics

Possession
LYO
54%
LEN
46%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 4
0 Big Chances Created 3
16 Shots 14
63 Dangerous attacks 31
55 Possession 45
20 Corners 8
11 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
15 Dribble Attempts 10
19 Throwins 11
6 Goal Kicks 8
14 Successful Headers 15
7 Successful Dribbles 5
0 Assists 4
4 Substitutions 5
65 Ball Safe 63
10 Goal Attempts 9
1 Injuries 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

82 Attacks 63
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

462 Passes 383
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
389 Successful Passes 316
52 Long Passes 55
84 Successful Passes Percentage 83
25 Successful Long Passes 27
12 Key Passes 11

Defensive

39 Duels Won 40
9 Tackles 12
1 Saves 4
4 Interceptions 4

Build-up

31 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

10 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

1
Dominik Greif
Dominik Greif Goalkeeper
7
19
Moussa Niakhaté
Moussa Niakhaté Defender
7.05
21
Ruben Kluivert
Ruben Kluivert Defender
6.6
77
Roman Yaremchuk
Roman Yaremchuk
Attacker46'
6.88
22
Clinton Mata
Clinton Mata Defender
6.82
98
Ainsley Maitland-Niles
Ainsley Maitland-Niles Defender
6.81
33
Hans Hateboer
Hans Hateboer
Defender46'
4.99
5
Orel Mangala
Orel Mangala Midfielder
6.75
37
Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah
Attacker71'
6.43
8
Corentin Tolisso
Corentin Tolisso Midfielder
7.28
10
Pavel Sulc
Pavel Sulc Midfielder
6.94
16
Abner
Abner Midfielder
6.88
9
Endrick
Endrick Attacker
7.33
11
Malick Fofana
Malick Fofana
Attacker71'
6.9
17
Afonso Moreira
Afonso Moreira Attacker
7.06
Referee : François Letexier

Starting XI ▼

16
Mathieu Gorgelin
Mathieu Gorgelin Goalkeeper
6.78
4
Nidal Celik
Nidal Celik Defender
6.57
20
Malang Sarr
Malang Sarr Defender
7.13
14
Matthieu Udol
Matthieu Udol
Defender46'
7.08
32
Kyllian Antonio
Kyllian Antonio Defender
6.92
25
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Ismaëlo Ganiou
Defender39'
6.97
5
Andrija Bulatovic
Andrija Bulatovic Midfielder
6.8
21
Amadou Haidara
Amadou Haidara Midfielder
6.72
28
Adrien Thomasson
Adrien Thomasson
Midfielder61'
7.23
23
Saud Abdulhamid
Saud Abdulhamid Midfielder
6.81
2
Ruben Aguilar
Ruben Aguilar
Defender46'
6.97
27
Arthur Masuaku
Arthur Masuaku Midfielder
6.49
7
Florian Sotoca
Florian Sotoca Attacker
6.65
10
Florian Thauvin
Florian Thauvin Attacker
7.29
19
Abdallah Sima
Abdallah Sima
Attacker61'
6.78
22
Wesley Saïd
Wesley Saïd Attacker
2
7.08

Events

2ND-HALF
83'
Event
Nidal Celik
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
73'
Event
Ruben Aguilar
Handball / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Ernest Nuamah → Orel Mangala
9th Substitution
71'
Event
Malick Fofana → Endrick
8th Substitution
71'
Event
Pavel Sulc
3rd Yellowcard
63'
61'
Event
Abdallah Sima → Florian Thauvin
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Adrien Thomasson  → Amadou Haidara 
7th Substitution
53'
Event
Florian Thauvin
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Hans Hateboer → Ainsley Maitland-Niles
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Roman Yaremchuk → Ruben Kluivert
5th Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ruben Aguilar → Saud Abdulhamid
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Matthieu Udol → Malang Sarr
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
45+1'
Event
Florian Sotoca
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
39'
Event
Ismaëlo Ganiou → Kyllian Antonio
1st Substitution
32'
Event
Wesley Saïd 
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
27'
Event
Saud Abdulhamid
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
20'
Event
Wesley Saïd 
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
5'
Event
Malang Sarr
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Sulc's right-footed shot is saved.
89
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Said takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Attempt Attempt
Ernest Nuamah's left-footed shot is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Abdallah Sima attempted a header but missed the shot.
86
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Sulc's left-footed shot is blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Ganiou takes a header shot but misses.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Nidal Celik receives a yellow card.
80
Attempt Attempt
Hans Hateboer takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
77
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
76
Attempt Attempt
Pierre Ganiou takes a right-footed shot but misses.
73
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ruben Aguilar receives a yellow card.
71
Update Update
Ernest Nuamah replaces Orel Mangala.
71
Update Update
Malick Fofana is on, and Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa is off.
70
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Pavel Sulc takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
67
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso takes a right-footed shot but misses.
63
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pavel Sulc receives a yellow card.
61
Update Update
Adrien Thomasson comes on for Amadou Haidara.
61
Update Update
Abdallah Sima replaces Florian Thauvin.
59
Attempt Attempt
Matthieu Udol takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
58
Attempt Attempt
Roman Yaremchuk takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
57
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira's right-footed shot is blocked.
56
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira takes a right-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Florian Thauvin scores with a left-footed shot.
53
Attempt Attempt
Corentin Tolisso attempts a header but misses the shot.
51
Attempt Attempt
Florian Thauvin takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
51
Attempt Attempt
Afonso Moreira's right-footed shot is saved.
46
Update Update
Hans Hateboer replaces Ainsley Maitland-Niles.
46
Update Update
Ruben Aguilar comes on for Saud Abdulhamid.
46
Update Update
Roman Yaremchuk replaces Ruben Kluivert.
46
Update Update
Matthieu Udol comes on for Malang Sarr.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Florian Sotoca scores, making it 3-0.
45
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Said takes a left-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Florian Sotoca takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
45
Attempt Attempt
Andrija Bulatovic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
44
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
39
Substitution Substitution
Pierre Ganiou is substituted for Kyllian Antonio.
36
Attempt Attempt
Malang Sarr's header shot missed the target.
32
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Wesley Said scores, making it 0-2.
32
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Said scores with a left-footed shot.
27
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Saud Abdulhamid receives a yellow card.
20
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Said takes a right-footed shot and scores.
10
Attempt Attempt
Ruben Kluivert attempts a header but misses the shot.
7
Attempt Attempt
Wesley Said takes a right-footed shot but misses.
6
Attempt Attempt
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Malang Sarr receives a yellow card.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Olympique Lyonnais 0-4 Lens. Structural assessment: Lens exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Olympique Lyonnais vs Lens preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.