Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
KSK Nika Tue, 12 May - 10:00 AM
Premier League
Oleksandria Oleksandria
1 Winner 2
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
Full Time Tue, 12 May 10:00 AM
Round 28 Regular Season
Tedi Cara - 77'
Goal
|
Goal
Petar Micin - 75'
Pylyp Budkivskyi - 56' (P)
Danil Skorko 85' Second yellow card
Miguel Campos 90+8' Second yellow card
|

CONTEXT

Oleksandria faced Zorya Luhansk in a gripping Ukrainian Premier League match that concluded 1-2 for the visitors. The first half ended goalless, with Zorya controlling 55% possession yet struggling to convert chances against a resilient home defense. Tension escalated post-interval as Oleksandria received two red cards, reducing them to nine players and shifting the game's dynamics dramatically. Zorya, recognized as the stronger team, seized the advantage with two well-taken goals, while Oleksandria mustered a late reply but fell short. This outcome reflected Zorya's clinical edge and ability to capitalize on opponents' errors. Possession tilted toward the winners throughout, underscoring their dominance despite the even halftime scoreline. Disciplinary lapses proved costly for the hosts, turning a competitive affair into a second-half procession.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Zorya Luhansk's win marked a significant 59.8% structural deviation favoring the visitors.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with performance metrics for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment assessment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Final result fully aligned with pre-match market evaluations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without underlying data availability.
  • Event impact: Two red cards to Oleksandria created substantial event impact after halftime.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion dominated proceedings with home team reduced to nine players.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

E. Tsybulko

Ukraine 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

E. Petrakov

1st Assistant

Ukraine

M. Levchenko

2nd Assistant

Ukraine

M. Skrypnyk

4th Official

Ukraine

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 15.99
Yellow cards / match 3.03
Red cards / match 0.17
Penalties / match 0.26
Oleksandria V. Sharan
V. Sharan
VS
Zorya Luhansk V. Skripnik
V. Skripnik
0.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 63 L
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 54 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 46 D
Veres Rank: 47 L
Karpaty Rank: 54 L
SK Poltava Rank: 34 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 52 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 44 W
Veres Rank: 49 W
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 74 L
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Rank: 48 W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 9 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Oleksandria
31.75%
Draw
28.05%
Away Zorya Luhansk
40.2%

Movement

Changes since opening
Oleksandria
+31.12%
Draw
+24.37%
Zorya Luhansk
-55.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
42.5
54.32
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
Power Score
42.5
54.32
League Position
15
8
Global Rank
971
674

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Oleksandria — Opponent-weighted form score
Zorya Luhansk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Oleksandria Zorya Luhansk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Oleksandria

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Zorya Luhansk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Oleksandria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
11.44
18.45
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.45
11.44
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Oleksandria -0.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Zorya Luhansk +0.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Oleksandria ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Zorya Luhansk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Oleksandria Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Oleksandria Zorya Luhansk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Oleksandria
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Oleksandria Zorya Luhansk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Oleksandria 0.17
Zorya Luhansk 0.11
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Oleksandria Zorya Luhansk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Oleksandria 0.03
Zorya Luhansk 0.04
Oleksandria
Zorya Luhansk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Zorya Luhansk had peak pressure around 55'.
  • Zorya Luhansk started the game with stronger pressure.
Oleksandria Pressure Zorya Luhansk Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Zorya Luhansk reached the top pressure at 55' (62.70).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 29 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Oleksandria Oleksandria Home
29 matches
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
9
Draws
9
10
Losses
10
Goals
26
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
26
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T00:01:02+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
N. Makarenko
72 N. Makarenko
B. Butko
Substitution
Ukraine
91 B. Butko
M. Ferreira Campos
Portugal
26 (C) M. Ferreira Campos
J. Behiratche
Ivory Coast
50 J. Behiratche
D. Skorko
Ukraine
22 D. Skorko
D. Vashchenko
Substitution
Ukraine
20 D. Vashchenko
S. Buletsa
Substitution
Ukraine
10 S. Buletsa
D. Vlasiuk
Ukraine
90 D. Vlasiuk
T. Cara
Albania
27 T. Cara
B. Castillo Rosendo
Substitution
Venezuela
99 B. Castillo Rosendo
P. Yade
Senegal
37 P. Yade
Pitch
O. Saputin
Ukraine
1 O. Saputin
L. Reis Rodrigues
Brazil
10 (C) L. Reis Rodrigues
J. Bašić
Substitution
Croatia
21 J. Bašić
A. da Silva Cordeiro
Brazil
55 A. da Silva Cordeiro
N. Malysh
Ukraine
23 N. Malysh
D. Jelavić
Croatia
27 D. Jelavić
K. Dryshliuk
Ukraine
8 K. Dryshliuk
S. Bah
Substitution
Sierra Leone
88 S. Bah
I. Horbach
Substitution
Ukraine
11 I. Horbach
F. Zadorozhnyi
Substitution
17 F. Zadorozhnyi
R. Verley
Substitution
Panama
70 R. Verley

General Information

Date & Time :
May 12, 2026, 10:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 28 · Regular Season
Stadium :
KSK Nika
Capacity :
7000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Evgen Tsybulko
Evgen Petrakov
Maksim Levchenko
Maksym Skrypnyk

Statistics

Possession
Oleksandria
40%
Zorya Luhansk
60%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
2 Shots 2
23 Dangerous attacks 63
45 Possession 55
5 Corners 7
11 Free kicks 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
2 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1

Attacking

74 Attacks 111

Defensive

3 Saves 1

Discipline

15 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Evgen Tsybulko

Starting XI ▼

72
Nazar Makarenko
Nazar Makarenko Goalkeeper
5.88
22
Danil Skorko
Danil Skorko Defender
5.72
26
Miguel Campos
Miguel Campos (C) Defender
5.87
50
Jocelin Behiratche
Jocelin Behiratche Defender
6.05
90
Danyil Vlasiuk
Danyil Vlasiuk Defender
6.05
91
Bogdan Butko
Bogdan Butko Defender
6.26
67
Mauro Rodrigues
Mauro Rodrigues
Midfielder62'
6.37
10
Sergiy Buletsa
Sergiy Buletsa Midfielder
6.27
9
Dmytro Myshnyov
Dmytro Myshnyov
Midfielder82'
6.5
20
Daniil Vashchenko
Daniil Vashchenko Midfielder
6.27
71
Denys Shostak
Denys Shostak
Midfielder84'
6.5
27
Tedi Cara
Tedi Cara Midfielder
6.47
37
Papa Ndiaga Yade
Papa Ndiaga Yade Midfielder
6.27
99
Bryan Castillo
Bryan Castillo Attacker
6.46
77
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Dmytrii Kremchanin
Attacker62'
6.55
Referee : Evgen Tsybulko

Starting XI ▼

1
Oleksandr Saputin
Oleksandr Saputin Goalkeeper
6.12
10
Juninho
Juninho (C) Defender
6.25
21
Jakov Basic
Jakov Basic Defender
6.26
4
Gabriel Eskinja
Gabriel Eskinja
Defender80'
6.5
55
Jordan
Jordan Defender
6.26
8
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk Midfielder
6.37
11
Igor Gorbach
Igor Gorbach Midfielder
6.5
28
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Attacker45'
7.07
23
Navin Malysh
Navin Malysh Midfielder
6.37
27
Domagoj Jelavic
Domagoj Jelavic Midfielder
6.5
70
Reynaldiño Verley
Reynaldiño Verley Midfielder
6.37
6
Dejan Popara
Dejan Popara
Midfielder65'
6.37
88
S. Bah
S. Bah Midfielder
6.45
22
Petar Micin
Petar Micin
Midfielder64'
6.57
17
Fedir Zadorozhnyi
Fedir Zadorozhnyi Attacker
6.5
9
Artem Slesar
Artem Slesar
Midfielder45'
6.37

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Miguel Campos
Second Yellow Card / 2nd Yellow/red Card
90+8'
Event
Miguel Campos
4th Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Danil Skorko
Second Yellow Card / 1st Yellow/red Card
85'
Event
Denys Shostak → Daniil Vashchenko
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Dmytro Myshnyov → Sergiy Buletsa
8th Substitution
82'
80'
Event
Gabriel Eskinja → Jakov Basic
7th Substitution
Event
Tedi Cara
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
77'
75'
Event
Petar Micin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
65'
Event
Dejan Popara → Reynaldiño Verley
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Petar Micin → S. Bah
5th Substitution
Event
Dmytrii Kremchanin → Bryan Castillo
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Mauro Rodrigues → Bogdan Butko
4th Substitution
62'
56'
Event
Pylyp Budkivskyi
Penalty / 1st Penalty
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Juninho
3rd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Pylyp Budkivskyi → Igor Gorbach
1st Substitution
45'
Event
Artem Slesar → Fedir Zadorozhnyi
2nd Substitution
Event
Danil Skorko
2nd Yellowcard
30'
25'
Event
S. Bah
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Miguel Campos receives a second yellow card.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Danil Skorko receives a second yellow card.
85
Update Update
Denys Shostak replaces Daniil Vashchenko.
81
Update Update
Dmytro Myshnov replaces Serhii Buletsa.
80
Update Update
Gabriel Eskinja replaces Jakov Basic.
66
Update Update
Dejan Popara comes on for Domagoj Jelavic.
66
Update Update
Petar Micin is on, and Sallieu Bah is off.
62
Update Update
Mauro Rodrigues replaces Bohdan Butko.
62
Update Update
Dmytro Kremchanin comes on for Bryan Castillo.
54
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Pylyp Budkivsky scores, making it 0-1.
46
Update Update
Artem Slesar is on, and Fedir Zadorozhnyi is off.
46
Update Update
Pylyp Budkivsky is on, and Igor Gorbach is off.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Leovigildo Júnior Reis Rodrigues receives a yellow card.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to Sallieu Bah.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jevgeny Tsybulko.

CONCLUSION

Zorya Luhansk emerged victorious 1-2 over Oleksandria, validating their stronger team status amid a goalless first half. Two second-half red cards to the hosts triggered red card distortion, enabling Zorya to score twice while conceding once. This significant 59.8% structural deviation aligned with market views, as efficiency held steady without xG data for deeper insight. Zorya's 55% possession and composure under pressure secured a deserved outcome, boosting their league standing. Oleksandria's discipline issues exposed vulnerabilities, potentially costing points in a winnable contest. Momentum swung decisively post-reds, highlighting event impact in tight fixtures.

Oleksandria vs Zorya Luhansk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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