OH Leuven vs Westerlo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion Tue, 21 Apr - 6:30 PM
Pro League
OH Leuven OHL
0 Winner 2
Westerlo KVC
Full Time Tue, 21 Apr 6:30 PM
Round 4 Conference League Play-off Group
|
Goal
Nacho Ferri - 67', 62'

CONTEXT

OH Leuven welcomed Westerlo to the Den Dreef stadium for a crucial Belgian Pro League encounter that concluded with a 0-2 victory for the away side. The first half ended level at 0-0, with possession nearly even at 49% for the hosts and 51% for the visitors, reflecting a balanced opening period marked by few clear chances. Westerlo's quality shone through in the second half, where they netted twice without reply, exploiting defensive lapses from Leuven. Identified pre-match as the stronger team, Westerlo's performance resulted in a significant 63.2% deviation, underscoring their dominance despite closely matched expectations. No red cards disrupted play, and the outcome stayed aligned with market views, highlighting efficient execution over raw chance creation.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Westerlo's 0-2 win produced a significant 63.2% structural deviation in their favor.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match assessments for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment with expected goals.
  • Market alignment: The result aligned fully with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures left expectations unevaluated.
  • Event impact: No key events or adjustments altered the match's flow.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from player dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Van Damme

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Jans

1st Assistant

T. Vanpoucke

2nd Assistant

K. Clerkx

4th Official

OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
VS
Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
1.23
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: L
Genk Rank: D
Standard Liège Rank: L
Antwerp Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Westerlo Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Genk Rank: L
Standard Liège Rank: W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Standard Liège Rank: D
Club Brugge Rank: L
OH Leuven Rank: W
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home OH Leuven
36.4%
Draw
26.83%
Away Westerlo
36.77%

Movement

Changes since opening
OH Leuven
+36.2%
Draw
+24.91%
Westerlo
-61.12%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
19.05
24.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
OH Leuven
Westerlo
Power Score
19.05
24.79
League Position
12
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) OH Leuven Westerlo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
30.31
36.27
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
36.27
30.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
OH Leuven -0.57 Efficiency Index
vs
Westerlo +0.57 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Westerlo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
OH Leuven Westerlo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
OH Leuven Westerlo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Westerlo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
OH Leuven
vs
Westerlo
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
OH Leuven Westerlo
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
OH Leuven 0.21
Westerlo 0.32
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
OH Leuven Westerlo
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
OH Leuven 0.04
Westerlo 0.00
OH Leuven
Westerlo
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OHL had peak pressure around 34'.
  • OHL started the game with stronger pressure.
OHL Pressure KVC Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OHL reached the top pressure at 34' (79.75).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

OH Leuven OHL Home
16 matches
Westerlo KVC Away
Match Record
5
Wins
6
5
Draws
5
6
Losses
5
Goals
23
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
23
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-22T00:02:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Leysen
Belgium
1 T. Leysen
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
N. Dussenne
Substitution
Belgium
3 N. Dussenne
R. Nyakossi
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
T. Vlietinck
Substitution
Belgium
77 T. Vlietinck
S. Schrijvers
Belgium
8 S. Schrijvers
Ł. Łakomy
Substitution
Poland
24 Ł. Łakomy
H. Teklab
Germany
14 H. Teklab
M. Maertens
Substitution
Belgium
33 M. Maertens
K. Vaesen
Substitution
Belgium
17 K. Vaesen
Y. Maziz
France
10 Y. Maziz
Pitch
A. Jungdal
Denmark
99 A. Jungdal
S. Kimura
Substitution
Japan
5 S. Kimura
R. Neustädter
Russia
33 R. Neustädter
E. Bayram
Türkiye
40 E. Bayram
B. Reynolds
United States
22 B. Reynolds
A. Piedfort
Belgium
46 A. Piedfort
S. Sydorchuk
Ukraine
8 S. Sydorchuk
J. Alcócer
Substitution
Costa Rica
77 J. Alcócer
T. Van den Keybus
Substitution
Belgium
39 T. Van den Keybus
A. Sayyadmanesh
Substitution
Iran
7 A. Sayyadmanesh
I. Ferri Julià
Substitution
Spain
90 I. Ferri Julià

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 21, 2026, 06:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 4 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Capacity :
10020
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Kevin Van Damme
Lennert Jans
Tom Vanpoucke
K. Clerkx

Statistics

Possession
OHL
49%
KVC
51%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 3
1 Shots 6
57 Dangerous attacks 50
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 4
5 Free kicks 10
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

15 Dribble Attempts 23
9 Successful Dribbles 10
16 Throwins 20
60 Successful Dribbles Percentage 43
5 Goal Kicks 9
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 5
80 Ball Safe 73
1 Injuries 0
12 Goal Attempts 12
0 Assists 1

Attacking

86 Attacks 100
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

409 Passes 433
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
334 Successful Passes 347
55 Long Passes 70
26 Successful Long Passes 38
82 Successful Passes Percentage 80
11 Key Passes 13

Defensive

40 Duels Won 48
14 Interceptions 8
17 Tackles 15
6 Saves 4

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 9
12 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

8 Offsides 1
10 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Kevin Van Damme

Starting XI ▼

1
Tobe Leysen
Tobe Leysen Goalkeeper
7.02
3
Noë Dussenne
Noë Dussenne Defender
6.9
5
Takuma Ominami
Takuma Ominami
Defender46'
6.67
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
6.84
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
6.82
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers Midfielder
6.99
14
Henok Teklab
Henok Teklab Midfielder
6.74
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy Midfielder
6.82
21
William Balikwisha
William Balikwisha
Attacker76'
6.49
77
Thibault Vlietinck
Thibault Vlietinck Midfielder
6.45
7
Thibaud Verlinden
Thibaud Verlinden
Attacker70'
6.75
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz Attacker
6.95
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen Attacker
6.59
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba
Attacker70'
6.89
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens Attacker
6.69
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Attacker76'
6.69
Referee : Kevin Van Damme

Starting XI ▼

99
Andreas Jungdal
Andreas Jungdal Goalkeeper
6.85
5
Seiji Kimura
Seiji Kimura Defender
6.8
4
Amando Lapage
Amando Lapage
Defender84'
7.11
22
Bryan Reynolds
Bryan Reynolds Defender
6.74
33
Roman Neustädter
Roman Neustädter Defender
6.79
40
Emin Bayram
Emin Bayram Defender
7.14
7
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
Allahyar Sayyadmanesh Midfielder
6.99
38
Shunsuke Saito
Shunsuke Saito
Attacker46'
6.73
8
Sergiy Sydorchuk
Sergiy Sydorchuk Midfielder
6.5
39
Thomas Van den Keybus
Thomas Van den Keybus Midfielder
6.62
10
Afonso Patrão
Afonso Patrão
Attacker75'
6.61
46
Arthur Piedfort
Arthur Piedfort Midfielder
7.05
77
Josimar Alcócer
Josimar Alcócer Midfielder
6.65
23
Lucas Mbamba
Lucas Mbamba
Defender75'
6.53
90
Nacho Ferri
Nacho Ferri Attacker
2
7.05
29
Fernand Goure
Fernand Goure
Attacker69'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
84'
Event
Amando Lapage → Seiji Kimura
10th Substitution
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi → Mathieu Maertens
9th Substitution
76'
Event
William Balikwisha → Lukasz Lakomy
8th Substitution
76'
75'
Event
Lucas Mbamba → Josimar Alcócer
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Afonso Patrão → Thomas Van den Keybus
7th Substitution
Event
Sory Kaba → Kyan Vaesen
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Thibaud Verlinden → Thibault Vlietinck
5th Substitution
70'
69'
Event
Fernand Goure → Nacho Ferri
3rd Substitution
67'
Event
Nacho Ferri
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
Event
Nacho Ferri
Header / 1st Goal
Event
Kyan Vaesen
Penalty disallowed
53'
Event
Kyan Vaesen
Penalty Cancelled
53'
Event
Takuma Ominami → Noë Dussenne
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Shunsuke Saito → Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Mathieu Maertens
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
43'

CONCLUSION

Westerlo's composed 0-2 triumph over OH Leuven validates their status as the stronger outfit, turning a goalless halftime deadlock into a decisive second-half statement. With possession split almost evenly, the visitors' clinical finishing and defensive solidity proved decisive, amplifying a notable deviation from near-par expectations. This result reinforces market confidence while exposing Leuven's vulnerabilities under pressure. Westerlo's efficiency maintained equilibrium with forecasts, free from disruptive incidents, positioning them favorably in the league table. For Leuven, the defeat prompts reflection on converting balance into breakthroughs, as Westerlo marches on with momentum secured.

OH Leuven vs Westerlo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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