OH Leuven vs Westerlo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion Sat, 7 Mar - 3:00 PM
Pro League
OH Leuven OHL
0 Winner 1
Westerlo KVC
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
|
Goal
Emin Bayram - 4'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. OH Leuven 0–1 Westerlo. The result saw Westerlo take the points. Westerlo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Westerlo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

N. Verboomen

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Hillaert

1st Assistant

M. Toeback

2nd Assistant

T. Stevens

4th Official

OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
VS
Westerlo I. Charai
I. Charai
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Anderlecht Rank: L
Club Brugge Rank: L
Dender Rank: W
Gent Rank: W
Mechelen Rank: D
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Union Saint-Gilloise Rank: D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: W
Antwerp Rank: W
Sint-Truiden Rank: L
Zulte-Waregem Rank: W
Mechelen Rank: D
5
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
5 - 5 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home OH Leuven
41.05%
Draw
27.37%
Away Westerlo
31.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
33.33
45.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
OH Leuven
Westerlo
Power Score
33.33
45.24
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Westerlo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) OH Leuven Westerlo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Westerlo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.34
27.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.44
39.34
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
OH Leuven +1.10 Efficiency Index
vs
Westerlo -1.10 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Westerlo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Westerlo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
OH Leuven Westerlo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
OH Leuven Westerlo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Westerlo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

OH Leuven OHL Home
11 matches
Westerlo KVC Away
Match Record
3
Wins
4
4
Draws
4
4
Losses
3
Goals
12
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
12
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:06:52+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 07, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
Stadium :
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Capacity :
10020
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Nathan Verboomen
Mathias Hillaert
Maarten Toeback
Tom Stevens

Statistics

Possession
OHL
59%
KVC
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 1
2 Shots 3
60 Dangerous attacks 34
61 Possession 39
9 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

23 Throwins 19
13 Dribble Attempts 18
54 Successful Dribbles Percentage 56
20 Successful Headers 21
58 Ball Safe 70
13 Goal Attempts 4
8 Goal Kicks 22
7 Successful Dribbles 10
1 Hit Woodwork 0
5 Substitutions 4
0 Assists 1
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

115 Attacks 56
4 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes 21
62 Long Passes 56
74 Successful Passes Percentage 63
263 Successful Passes 155
53 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
15 Key Passes 7
354 Passes 245

Defensive

19 Tackles 10
1 Saves 4
7 Interceptions 12

Build-up

43 Total Crosses 11
14 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 13
9 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mathieu Maertens → Birger Verstraete
9th Substitution
87'
86'
Event
Thomas Van den Keybus → Isa Sakamoto
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Sergiy Sydorchuk → Arthur Piedfort
8th Substitution
Event
William Balikwisha → Siebe Schrijvers
5th Substitution
79'
Event
Abdoul Karim Traoré → Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
76'
67'
Event
Afonso Patrão → Fernand Goure
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Sory Kaba → Kyan Vaesen
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Thibaud Verlinden → Henok Teklab
3rd Substitution
62'
52'
Event
Shunsuke Saito → Allahyar Sayyadmanesh
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
45'
40'
Event
Andreas Jungdal
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Event
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
4'
Event
Emin Bayram
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Westerlo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

OH Leuven vs Westerlo preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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