OH Leuven vs Genk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Belgium flag 2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion Sat, 23 May - 6:45 PM
Pro League
OH Leuven OHL
0 Winner 2
Genk GNK
Full Time Sat, 23 May 6:45 PM
Round 10 Conference League Play-off Group
|
Goal
Ayumu Yokoyama - 33'
Junya Ito - 16'

CONTEXT

OH Leuven hosted Genk in a match that concluded with a 0-2 final score. Genk established a commanding position by scoring twice before halftime, leaving the hosts unable to respond in the second period. Both teams recorded equal possession at 50 percent each, reflecting a balanced share of the ball throughout the contest. No red cards were shown to players from either side, allowing the game to proceed without numerical imbalances. Genk, identified as the stronger side beforehand, secured the victory in line with expectations. The significant deviation observed pointed toward Genk outperforming projections in a notable manner. This outcome highlighted Genk's clinical approach in converting opportunities during the opening half.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Genk produced a significant deviation of 44.4 percent from pre-match projections.
  • Efficiency shift: Genk's performance remained in line with expected efficiency levels.
  • xG alignment: No xG data was recorded to determine alignment with the final result.
  • Market alignment: The 0-2 outcome proved consistent with available market indicators.
  • xG expectations: Absence of xG metrics prevented direct comparison to expected goal values.
  • Event impact: Genk's two first-half goals shaped the match trajectory decisively.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards occurred and created no numerical distortions.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

B. Verbeke

Belgium 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Tiesters

1st Assistant

Belgium

T. Vanpoucke

2nd Assistant

Belgium

M. Simonini

4th Official

Belgium

League averages

Pro League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.54
Yellow cards / match 3.47
Red cards / match 0.18
Penalties / match 0.32
OH Leuven F. Mazzù
F. Mazzù
VS
Genk N. Hayen
N. Hayen
1
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 71 D
Antwerp Rank: 70 W
Standard Liège Rank: 71 L
Westerlo Rank: 71 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 72 L
Westerlo Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antwerp Rank: 68 D
Standard Liège Rank: 71 D
Westerlo Rank: 71 W
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 70 L
Standard Liège Rank: 71 D
Sporting Charleroi Rank: 72 D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 13
13

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home OH Leuven
21.96%
Draw
22.49%
Away Genk
55.55%

Movement

Changes since opening
OH Leuven
+21.74%
Draw
+20.57%
Genk
-42.31%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.43
77.27
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
OH Leuven
Genk
Power Score
65.43
77.27
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
322
87

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
OH Leuven — Opponent-weighted form score
Genk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) OH Leuven Genk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

OH Leuven

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Genk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.00
25.20
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.20
35.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
OH Leuven +0.93 Efficiency Index
vs
Genk -0.93 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Genk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

OH Leuven ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Genk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
OH Leuven Genk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
OH Leuven Genk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
OH Leuven
Genk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
OH Leuven
vs
Genk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
OH Leuven Genk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
OH Leuven 0.30
Genk 0.34
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
OH Leuven Genk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
OH Leuven 0.06
Genk 0.00
OH Leuven
Genk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • OHL had peak pressure around 67'.
  • OHL started the game with stronger pressure.
OHL Pressure GNK Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: OHL reached the top pressure at 67' (73.40).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

OH Leuven OHL Home
21 matches
Genk GNK Away
Match Record
3
Wins
13
5
Draws
5
13
Losses
3
Goals
21
Goals Scored
45
45
Goals Conceded
21
-24
Goal Difference
+24

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:04:04+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
T. Leysen
Belgium
1 T. Leysen
E. Pletinckx
Belgium
28 E. Pletinckx
R. Nyakossi
Substitution
Switzerland
34 R. Nyakossi
T. Ominami
Japan
5 T. Ominami
D. Opoku
Substitution
Belgium
99 D. Opoku
S. Schrijvers
Belgium
8 S. Schrijvers
Ł. Łakomy
Poland
24 Ł. Łakomy
T. Akimoto
Japan
30 T. Akimoto
A. Traoré
Substitution
9 A. Traoré
M. Maertens
Substitution
Belgium
33 M. Maertens
K. Vaesen
Substitution
Belgium
17 K. Vaesen
Pitch
L. Kiaba Mounganga
Belgium
28 L. Kiaba Mounganga
Y. Medina Ortiz
Ecuador
19 Y. Medina Ortiz
J. Ndenge Kongolo
Belgium
44 J. Ndenge Kongolo
M. Sadick Aliu
Spain
3 M. Sadick Aliu
Z. El Ouahdi
Substitution
Morocco
77 Z. El Ouahdi
B. Heynen
Belgium
8 B. Heynen
I. Bangoura
Guinea
21 I. Bangoura
A. Yokoyama
Japan
30 A. Yokoyama
D. Heymans
Substitution
Belgium
38 D. Heymans
J. Ito
Substitution
Japan
10 J. Ito
A. Bibout
Substitution
Cameroon
23 A. Bibout

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Pro League, Belgium · Round 10 · Conference League Play-off Group
Stadium :
King Power at Den Dreef Stadion
Capacity :
10020
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Bert Verbeke
Martijn Tiesters
Tom Vanpoucke
Matonga Simonini

Statistics

Possession
OHL
51%
GNK
49%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 5
50 Dangerous attacks 32
50 Possession 50
4 Corners 4
15 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

68 Ball Safe 89
1 Injuries 2
11 Goal Attempts 9
5 Goal Kicks 9
4 Successful Dribbles 5
9 Dribble Attempts 12
44 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
17 Throwins 12
0 Assists 2
0 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 4

Attacking

119 Attacks 75
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

62 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38
29 Successful Long Passes 19
405 Passes 424
337 Successful Passes 360
47 Long Passes 50
83 Successful Passes Percentage 85
12 Key Passes 11

Defensive

13 Tackles 7
52 Duels Won 41
5 Interceptions 11
3 Saves 5

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 9
7 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

5 Offsides 4
11 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

1
Tobe Leysen
Tobe Leysen Goalkeeper
5
Takuma Ominami
Takuma Ominami Defender
28
Ewoud Pletinckx
Ewoud Pletinckx Defender
34
Roggerio Nyakossi
Roggerio Nyakossi Defender
19
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi
Attacker81'
8
Siebe Schrijvers
Siebe Schrijvers Midfielder
24
Lukasz Lakomy
Lukasz Lakomy Midfielder
30
Takahiro Akimoto
Takahiro Akimoto Midfielder
99
Davis Opoku
Davis Opoku Midfielder
27
Óscar Gil
Óscar Gil
Defender46'
9
Abdoul Karim Traoré
Abdoul Karim Traoré Attacker
10
Youssef Maziz
Youssef Maziz
Midfielder64'
17
Kyan Vaesen
Kyan Vaesen Attacker
39
Sory Kaba
Sory Kaba
Attacker46'
33
Mathieu Maertens
Mathieu Maertens Attacker
6
Wouter George
Wouter George
Midfielder76'
Referee : Bert Verbeke

Starting XI ▼

28
Lucca Brughmans
Lucca Brughmans Goalkeeper
3
Mujaid Sadick
Mujaid Sadick Defender
19
Yaimar Medina
Yaimar Medina Defender
44
Josué Kongolo
Josué Kongolo Defender
77
Zakaria El Ouahdi
Zakaria El Ouahdi Defender
27
Ken Nkuba
Ken Nkuba
Defender81'
8
Bryan Heynen
Bryan Heynen Midfielder
10
Junya Ito
Junya Ito Midfielder
7
Jarne Steuckers
Jarne Steuckers
Attacker72'
21
Ibrahima Bangoura
Ibrahima Bangoura Midfielder
30
Ayumu Yokoyama
Ayumu Yokoyama Midfielder
38
Daan Heymans
Daan Heymans Midfielder
56
August De Wannemacker
August De Wannemacker
Midfielder72'
23
Aaron Bibout
Aaron Bibout Attacker
29
Robin Mirisola
Robin Mirisola
Attacker90+1'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+1'
Event
Robin Mirisola → Aaron Bibout
9th Substitution
Event
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi → Roggerio Nyakossi
7th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Ken Nkuba → Zakaria El Ouahdi
8th Substitution
Event
Wouter George → Mathieu Maertens
6th Substitution
76'
72'
Event
Jarne Steuckers → Junya Ito
4th Substitution
72'
Event
August De Wannemacker → Daan Heymans
5th Substitution
Event
Youssef Maziz → Abdoul Karim Traoré
3rd Substitution
64'
52'
Event
Daan Heymans
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
Event
Josué Kongolo
Handball / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Sory Kaba → Kyan Vaesen
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Óscar Gil → Davis Opoku
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Ayumu Yokoyama
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
16'
Event
Junya Ito
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Sory Kaba attempts a header but misses the shot.
90
Update Update
Robin Mirisola is on, and Aaron Bibout is off.
90
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Maziz has a shot with his right foot, but it is blocked.
85
Attempt Attempt
Sory Kaba misses the shot with another body part.
84
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Heynen takes a right-footed shot but misses.
84
Attempt Attempt
Ayumu Yokoyama's left-footed shot is saved.
81
Update Update
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi replaces Roggerio Nyakossi.
81
Update Update
Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi replaces Roggerio Nyakossi.
77
Attempt Attempt
Sory Kaba's header is saved.
76
Update Update
Wouter George is on, and Mathieu Maertens is off.
74
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Maziz has a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
72
Update Update
Jarne Steuckers is on, and Junya Ito is off.
70
Update Update
Jarne Steuckers comes on for Junya Ito.
69
Attempt Attempt
Mathieu Maertens takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
68
Attempt Attempt
Youssef Maziz has a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
67
Attempt Attempt
Mathieu Maertens takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Zakaria El Ouahdi takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
64
Update Update
Youssef Maziz comes on for Abdoul Karim Traore.
63
Attempt Attempt
Mathieu Maertens takes a right-footed shot but misses.
60
Attempt Attempt
Sory Kaba's header is saved.
56
Attempt Attempt
Lukasz Lakomy takes a left-footed shot but misses.
54
Attempt Attempt
Mathieu Maertens takes a right-footed shot but misses.
52
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Daan Heymans receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Daan Heymans takes a right-footed shot but misses.
47
Attempt Attempt
Yaimar Medina takes a left-footed shot but misses.
46
Update Update
Sory Kaba is on, and Kyan Vaesen is off.
46
Update Update
Sory Kaba is on, and Kyan Vaesen is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daan Heymans takes a shot with his head but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Daan Heymans attempts a header but misses the shot.
44
Attempt Attempt
Yaimar Medina takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
40
Attempt Attempt
Aaron Bibout takes a right-footed shot but misses.
37
Attempt Attempt
Ayumu Yokoyama's right-footed shot is saved.
33
Attempt Attempt
Ayumu Yokoyama takes a right-footed shot and scores.
32
Attempt Attempt
Junya Ito's right-footed shot is blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Mathieu Maertens takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Junya Ito scores with a right-footed shot.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Junya Ito scores to make it 1-0.
9
Attempt Attempt
Takahiro Akimoto takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: OH Leuven 0-2 Genk. Structural assessment: Genk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

OH Leuven vs Genk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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