Odense BK vs Silkeborg IF Prediction, Preview and Stats

Denmark flag 2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark
Nature Energy Park Sun, 3 May - 12:00 PM
Superliga
Odense BK ODE
2 Winner 3
Silkeborg IF SIL
Full Time Sun, 3 May 12:00 PM
Round 8 Relegation Round
William Martin - 90+4'
Noah Ganaus - 41'
Goal
|
Goal
Jens Martin Gammelby - 85', 18'
Tonni Adamsen - 53'
Nicolas Bürgy 67' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

Silkeborg IF pulled off a remarkable 3-2 comeback win over Odense BK in the Danish Superliga, defying expectations despite Odense's commanding 66% possession. The sides were locked at 1-1 at halftime, with both teams trading early blows. Odense's second-half red card proved pivotal, distorting the game's structure as Silkeborg capitalized ruthlessly on the numerical edge. Despite creating more opportunities through sustained pressure, Odense faltered in conversion, allowing Silkeborg to strike decisively. This outcome underscores Silkeborg's status as the stronger team, showcasing their clinical edge in transition. The significant structural deviation highlights how one key event can upend dominance, turning possession stats into a mere footnote in a chaotic finish.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Silkeborg IF's 3-2 win showed a significant 81.7% structural deviation favoring the visitors.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with pre-match expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG data absence prevents assessment of outcome consistency.
  • Market alignment: Pre-match market predictions did not align with Silkeborg's victory.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG data blocks evaluation against performance expectations.
  • Event impact: Odense's red card dramatically altered second-half momentum toward Silkeborg.
  • Red card distortion: Red card to Odense caused second-half distortion, aiding Silkeborg's win.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Funder

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Markus

1st Assistant

J. García Nilton

2nd Assistant

M. Kristoffersen

4th Official

Odense BK A. Zorniger
A. Zorniger
VS
Silkeborg IF K. Nielsen
K. Nielsen
1.47
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.07
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fredericia Rank: 53 W
FC København Rank: 69 L
Randers FC Rank: 60 W
Silkeborg IF Rank: 57 L
Fredericia Rank: 52 W
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 49 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Randers FC Rank: 58 W
Vejle Boldklub Rank: 50 W
Fredericia Rank: 52 D
Odense BK Rank: 57 W
FC København Rank: 69 L
Randers FC Rank: 58 W
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 14 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Odense BK
60.47%
Draw
21.24%
Away Silkeborg IF
18.3%

Movement

Changes since opening
Odense BK
+60.28%
Draw
+17.54%
Silkeborg IF
-77.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.75
60.74
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Odense BK
Silkeborg IF
Power Score
48.75
60.74
League Position
8
11
Global Rank
549
460

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Odense BK — Opponent-weighted form score
Silkeborg IF — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Odense BK Silkeborg IF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Odense BK

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Silkeborg IF

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Odense BK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Silkeborg IF
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.82
39.41
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.41
31.82
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Odense BK -0.75 Efficiency Index
vs
Silkeborg IF +0.75 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Odense BK
Silkeborg IF
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Odense BK ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Silkeborg IF
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Odense BK Silkeborg IF
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Odense BK Silkeborg IF
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Odense BK
Silkeborg IF
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Odense BK
vs
Silkeborg IF
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Odense BK Silkeborg IF
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Odense BK 0.16
Silkeborg IF 0.43
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Odense BK Silkeborg IF
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Odense BK 0.11
Silkeborg IF 0.02
Odense BK
Silkeborg IF
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • ODE had peak pressure around 9'.
  • ODE started the game with stronger pressure.
ODE Pressure SIL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: ODE reached the top pressure at 9' (77.01).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 42 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Odense BK ODE Home
42 matches
Silkeborg IF SIL Away
Match Record
17
Wins
11
14
Draws
14
11
Losses
17
Goals
54
Goals Scored
49
49
Goals Conceded
54
+5
Goal Difference
-5

Data last updated: 2026-05-04T00:03:19+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 4-3-2-1
Pitch
V. Røsholt Myhra
Norway
16 V. Røsholt Myhra
L. Owusu
Netherlands
20 L. Owusu
N. Bürgy
Switzerland
5 N. Bürgy
J. Berthel Askou Harvey
Substitution
Denmark
13 J. Berthel Askou Harvey
M. McCoy
Denmark
15 M. McCoy
M. Ejdum
Denmark
18 M. Ejdum
I. Ouédraogo
Substitution
Burkina Faso
22 I. Ouédraogo
R. Falk Jensen
Denmark
8 R. Falk Jensen
J. Arp
Substitution
Germany
7 J. Arp
N. Ganaus
Germany
17 N. Ganaus
J. Niemiec
Substitution
Germany
11 J. Niemiec
Pitch
N. Larsen
Denmark
1 N. Larsen
S. Fynbo Stücker
Denmark
28 S. Fynbo Stücker
P. Machado Ganchas
Portugal
4 P. Machado Ganchas
A. Madsen
Denmark
24 A. Madsen
J. Gammelby
Denmark
19 J. Gammelby
V. Westh
Substitution
Denmark
7 V. Westh
A. Vikman
Sweden
6 A. Vikman
W. Kirk
Denmark
27 W. Kirk
C. McCowatt
New Zealand
17 C. McCowatt
S. Brix
Substitution
Denmark
14 S. Brix
T. Adamsen
Substitution
Denmark
23 T. Adamsen

General Information

Date & Time :
May 03, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 8 · Relegation Round
Stadium :
Nature Energy Park
Capacity :
15790
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Svend Funder
Martin Markus
Jonathan García Nilton
Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen

Statistics

Possession
ODE
64%
SIL
36%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
6 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 2
100 Dangerous attacks 28
66 Possession 34
8 Corners 3
7 Free kicks 9
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 4
5 Successful Dribbles 5
2 Assists 3
5 Goal Kicks 12
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 29
13 Dribble Attempts 17
19 Throwins 18
50 Ball Safe 61
12 Goal Attempts 8
1 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

158 Attacks 78
4 Big Chances Missed 1
0 Counter Attacks 2

Possession

89 Successful Passes Percentage 81
31 Successful Long Passes 20
729 Passes 377
47 Long Passes 34
15 Key Passes 9
650 Successful Passes 306
66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 59

Defensive

40 Duels Won 40
19 Tackles 15
3 Saves 3
11 Interceptions 9

Build-up

36 Total Crosses 7
13 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

9 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Svend Funder

Starting XI ▼

16
Viljar Myhra
Viljar Myhra Goalkeeper
7
5
Nicolas Bürgy
Nicolas Bürgy Defender
6.74
13
Julius Berthel Askou
Julius Berthel Askou Defender
6.9
3
Adam Sørensen
Adam Sørensen
Defender86'
6.6
15
Marcus McCoy
Marcus McCoy Defender
6.86
20
Leeroy Owusu
Leeroy Owusu Defender
6.86
7
Fiete Arp
Fiete Arp Midfielder
7.18
24
Yaya Bojang
Yaya Bojang
Defender70'
6.65
8
Rasmus Falk
Rasmus Falk Midfielder
7.01
18
Max Ejdum
Max Ejdum Midfielder
7
22
Ismahila Ouédraogo
Ismahila Ouédraogo Midfielder
6.91
10
Anssi Suhonen
Anssi Suhonen
Midfielder46'
6.79
11
Jona Niemiec
Jona Niemiec Attacker
6.75
31
Jay-Roy Grot
Jay-Roy Grot
Attacker62'
6.8
17
Noah Ganaus
Noah Ganaus Attacker
6.95
Referee : Svend Funder

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicolai Larsen
Nicolai Larsen Goalkeeper
7.23
4
Pedro Ganchas
Pedro Ganchas Defender
6.88
19
Jens Martin Gammelby
Jens Martin Gammelby Defender
2
6.63
24
Alexander Priesborg
Alexander Priesborg Defender
7.06
28
Simon Stücker
Simon Stücker Defender
6.77
6
Adam Wikman
Adam Wikman Midfielder
6.63
7
Villads Westh
Villads Westh Midfielder
6.79
20
Mads Larsen
Mads Larsen
Midfielder69'
6.68
14
Sofus Berger
Sofus Berger Midfielder
6.61
11
Oliver Ross
Oliver Ross
Attacker69'
6.7
17
Callum McCowatt
Callum McCowatt Midfielder
7.25
27
William Kirk
William Kirk Midfielder
6.69
23
Tonni Adamsen
Tonni Adamsen Attacker
7.26
9
Alexander Simmelhack
Alexander Simmelhack
Attacker89'
6.63

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
William Martin
Header / 5th Goal
90+4'
89'
Event
Alexander Simmelhack → Tonni Adamsen
9th Substitution
Event
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Adam Sørensen → Julius Berthel Askou
8th Substitution
86'
86'
Event
6th Substitution
85'
Event
Jens Martin Gammelby
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Yaya Bojang → Fiete Arp
5th Substitution
70'
69'
Event
Oliver Ross → Sofus Berger
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Mads Larsen → Villads Westh
3rd Substitution
Event
Nicolas Bürgy
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
67'
Event
Jay-Roy Grot → Jona Niemiec
2nd Substitution
62'
53'
Event
Tonni Adamsen
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Anssi Suhonen → Ismahila Ouédraogo
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Noah Ganaus
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
41'
18'
Event
Jens Martin Gammelby
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
William Martin takes a shot with his head and scores a goal.
88
Update Update
Alexander Illum Simmelhack comes on for Tonni Adamsen.
87
Update Update
Adam Sorensen replaces Julius Askou.
86
Update Update
Julius Nielsen replaces Callum McCowatt.
86
Update Update
Julius Nielsen replaces Callum McCowatt.
85
Attempt Attempt
Jens Martin Gammelby scores with a left-footed shot.
79
Attempt Attempt
Jay Roy Grot's header is saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Jay Roy Grot takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
69
Update Update
Mads Kaalund Larsen is on, and Villads Westh is off.
69
Substitution Substitution
Oliver Ross is substituted for Sofus Berger Brix.
69
Update Update
Yaya Bojang replaces Fiete Arp.
65
Attempt Attempt
Jay Roy Grot takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Update Update
Jay Roy Grot comes on for Jonah Niemiec.
58
Attempt Attempt
Leeroy Owusu takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
54
Update Update
Goal! Tonni Adamsen scores, making it 1-2.
53
Attempt Attempt
Tonni Adamsen scores with a left-footed shot.
52
Attempt Attempt
Leeroy Owusu has a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
48
Attempt Attempt
Jonah Niemiec takes a shot with his head, but it hits the post.
46
Update Update
Anssi Suhonen replaces Ismahila Ouedraogo.
44
Attempt Attempt
Callum McCowatt takes a right-footed shot but misses.
41
Attempt Attempt
Noah Ganaus scores with a left-footed shot.
39
Attempt Attempt
Tonni Adamsen's left-footed shot is blocked.
36
Attempt Attempt
Sofus Berger Brix takes a left-footed shot but misses.
30
Attempt Attempt
Simon Stuker takes a right-footed shot but misses.
25
Attempt Attempt
Jonah Niemiec takes a right-footed shot but misses.
21
Attempt Attempt
Max Ejdum takes a header shot but misses.
18
Attempt Attempt
Jens Martin Gammelby scores with a right-footed shot.
18
Attempt Attempt
Marcus McCoy attempts a header but misses the shot.
12
Attempt Attempt
Leeroy Owusu takes a left-footed shot but misses.
10
Attempt Attempt
Jens Martin Gammelby takes a shot with his right foot, but it hits the post.
10
Attempt Attempt
Tonni Adamsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
10
Attempt Attempt
Sofus Berger Brix takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
9
Update Update
Nicolas Burgy's header is blocked.
8
Attempt Attempt
Fiete Arp's left-footed shot is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Julius Askou attempts a header but misses the shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Tonni Adamsen's left-footed shot is saved.
3
Attempt Attempt
Jonah Niemiec takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Silkeborg IF's gritty 3-2 triumph over possession-heavy Odense BK exemplifies resilience amid chaos, with the home red card serving as the turning point that exposed Odense's profligacy. Lacking xG insights, the match's narrative hinges on Silkeborg's superior finishing and tactical nous, validating their stronger-team billing. This significant deviation from form lines boosts Silkeborg's momentum while questioning Odense's home fortress. In a league where events dictate destiny, Silkeborg's opportunism proves decisive, setting a tone for future battles.

Odense BK vs Silkeborg IF preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Superliga, Denmark View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ