Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Premier League
Newcastle United NEWSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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CONTEXT
Nottingham Forest secured a hard-fought 1-1 draw against Newcastle United at the City Ground, denying the visitors a victory despite their status as the stronger side. The first half ended goalless at 0-0, with both teams evenly matched and no breakthroughs. Forest, holding 46% possession compared to Newcastle's 54%, showed resilience in defense while capitalizing on limited chances. Newcastle dominated proceedings but failed to convert their territorial advantage into goals, leading to a share of the spoils. This outcome marked a significant structural deviation, as the Magpies underperformed relative to pre-match expectations. Without any red cards or major disruptions, the game flowed naturally, highlighting Forest's tactical discipline under pressure. The second half saw both sides push forward, but neither could find a winner, resulting in a fair reflection of a competitive encounter. Possession stats underscored Newcastle's control, yet Forest's organization proved decisive in holding firm.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Match ended in significant 72.7% structural deviation with Newcastle United as the deviating team.
- Efficiency shift: Team efficiencies stayed in line with expectations throughout the game.
- xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to missing expected goals data.
- Market alignment: Outcome not aligned with pre-match market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable from available data.
- Event impact: No key events like second-half adjustments impacted the result.
- Red card distortion: No red cards occurred, avoiding any distortion in match dynamics.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
P. Tierney
Other match officials
M. Scholes
2nd Assistant
R. West
1st Assistant
R. Ricardo
4th Official
League averages
Premier League Based on last 100 matches


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle UnitedMovement
Changes since opening
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle UnitedTeam Power Ranking
i
71.82
89.08
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle UnitedForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle United

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Nottingham Forest ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Nottingham Forest ⚠ Proxy
Nottingham Forest Newcastle United
Nottingham Forest Newcastle United
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest Newcastle United


Nottingham Forest Newcastle United


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- NFO had peak pressure around 100'.
- NEW started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 15 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:03:24+00:00
STARTING XI
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle United






















































General Information
Next Match

Nottingham Forest
vs

Manchester United
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 11:30 AM
Venue: Old Trafford

Newcastle United
vs

West Ham United
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 4:30 PM
Venue: St. James' Park
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Nottingham ForestManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















Substitutes ▼





Bench ▼




Newcastle UnitedManager ▼

Starting XI ▼















Substitutes ▼




Bench ▼





Events
CONCLUSION
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
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Match Commentary