Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
The City Ground Sun, 19 Apr - 1:00 PM
Premier League
Nottingham Forest NFO
4 Winner 1
Burnley BUR
Full Time Sun, 19 Apr 1:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season
Igor Jesus - 90+8'
Morgan Gibbs-White - 77', 69', 62'
Goal
|
Goal
Zian Flemming - 45+2'

CONTEXT

Nottingham Forest produced a stunning second-half turnaround to defeat Burnley 4-1 at the City Ground, erasing a 0-1 halftime deficit with four unanswered goals. Despite marginally higher possession at 51%, the hosts unleashed relentless attacking pressure after the break, capitalizing on Burnley's defensive lapses. As the pre-designated stronger team, Forest's victory registered a minimal 2.1% deviation from expectations, with no red cards or tactical adjustments disrupting proceedings. This performance highlights their home resilience and ability to accelerate when it matters most, while exposing Burnley's fragility in sustaining leads away from Turf Moor. The even possession battle underscored a competitive first half, but Forest's superiority shone through decisively.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal 2.1% deviation favoring Nottingham Forest.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with pre-match expectations for both sides.
  • xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of outcome alignment.
  • Market alignment: Final score fully aligned with pre-match market probabilities.
  • xG expectations: Missing xG figures precluded evaluation against expectations.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or notable events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion to the scoreline.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Kirk

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

S. Long

2nd Assistant

M. Perry

1st Assistant

D. Webb

4th Official

Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
VS
Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.54
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Aston Villa Rank: D
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: W
Fulham Rank: D
Manchester City Rank: D
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Liverpool Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Fulham Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Everton Rank: L
Brentford Rank: L
Chelsea Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 9
9

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nottingham Forest
97.86%
Draw
1.92%
Away Burnley
0.22%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
34.76
14.33
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Power Score
34.76
14.33
League Position
16
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Burnley

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Burnley

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nottingham Forest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burnley
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
23.53
11.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
11.22
23.53
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nottingham Forest +1.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Burnley -1.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nottingham Forest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Burnley
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nottingham Forest Burnley
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nottingham Forest Burnley
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nottingham Forest
vs
Burnley
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nottingham Forest Burnley
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nottingham Forest 0.25
Burnley 0.13
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nottingham Forest Burnley
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nottingham Forest 0.03
Burnley 0.10
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NFO had peak pressure around 59'.
  • NFO started the game with stronger pressure.
NFO Pressure BUR Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NFO reached the top pressure at 59' (65.10).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
17 matches
Burnley BUR Away
Match Record
3
Wins
9
5
Draws
5
9
Losses
3
Goals
15
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
15
-13
Goal Difference
+13

Data last updated: 2026-04-20T00:03:13+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Sels
Belgium
26 M. Sels
T. Olaoluwa Aina
Nigeria
34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
N. Williams
Wales
3 N. Williams
I. Sangaré
Ivory Coast
6 I. Sangaré
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
D. Bakwa
Substitution
France
29 D. Bakwa
M. Gibbs-White
Substitution
England
10 M. Gibbs-White
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
Substitution
Jamaica
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
C. Wood
Substitution
New Zealand
11 C. Wood
Pitch
M. Dúbravka
Slovakia
1 M. Dúbravka
Q. Hartman
Netherlands
3 Q. Hartman
M. Esteve
France
5 M. Esteve
H. Ekdal
Sweden
18 H. Ekdal
K. Walker
England
2 K. Walker
F. Morris Luís
Substitution
Portugal
16 F. Morris Luís
J. Ward-Prowse
England
20 J. Ward-Prowse
J. Anthony
Substitution
England
11 J. Anthony
C. Ugochukwu
Substitution
France
8 C. Ugochukwu
M. Edwards
Substitution
England
10 M. Edwards
Z. Flemming
Substitution
Netherlands
19 Z. Flemming

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
The City Ground
Capacity :
30445
Attendance :
29458
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Simon Long
Marc Perry
Thomas Kirk
David Webb

Statistics

Possession
NFO
53%
BUR
47%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 0
40 Dangerous attacks 30
51 Possession 49
4 Corners 4
12 Free kicks 10
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

1 Injuries 1
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 15
29 Throwins 21
9 Successful Dribbles 2
18 Dribble Attempts 13
10 Successful Headers 13
8 Goal Attempts 3
1 Goal Kicks 7
72 Ball Safe 69
5 Substitutions 5
3 Assists 1

Attacking

124 Attacks 83

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 82
474 Passes 454
52 Long Passes 58
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 40
389 Successful Passes 373
21 Successful Long Passes 23
7 Key Passes 3

Defensive

22 Tackles 22
53 Duels Won 44
4 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 1

Build-up

20 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

8 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

26
Matz Sels
Matz Sels Goalkeeper
6.74
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
6.97
5
Murillo
Murillo Defender
6.95
23
Jair Cunha
Jair Cunha
Defender42'
6.64
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.76
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Defender
6.82
6
Ibrahim Sangaré
Ibrahim Sangaré Midfielder
6.85
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.24
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder
3
6.94
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez
Midfielder89'
6.74
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder
6.83
4
Morato
Morato
Defender88'
6.78
29
Dilane Bakwa
Dilane Bakwa Midfielder
6.63
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus
Attacker46'
6.72
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.81
22
Ryan Yates
Ryan Yates
Midfielder76'
6.61
Referee : Thomas Kirk

Starting XI ▼

1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
6.85
2
Kyle Walker
Kyle Walker Defender
6.53
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Defender
6.72
5
Maxime Estève
Maxime Estève Defender
6.67
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Defender
6.7
8
Lesley Ugochukwu
Lesley Ugochukwu Midfielder
6.64
7
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Attacker76'
6.53
10
Marcus Edwards
Marcus Edwards Midfielder
6.68
9
Lyle Foster
Lyle Foster
Attacker64'
6.61
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Midfielder
6.85
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna
Attacker83'
6.56
16
Florentino
Florentino Midfielder
6.69
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent
Midfielder83'
6.48
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Midfielder
6.9
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
6.84
27
Armando Broja
Armando Broja
Attacker84'
6.46

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Igor Jesus
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90+8'
Event
Nicolás Domínguez → Morgan Gibbs-White
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Morato → Omari Hutchinson 
9th Substitution
88'
84'
Event
Armando Broja → Zian Flemming
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Josh Laurent → Florentino
6th Substitution
83'
Event
Loum Tchaouna → Jaidon Anthony
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Kyle Walker
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Morgan Gibbs-White
Header / 4th Goal
77'
Event
Ryan Yates  → Chris Wood 
5th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
Jacob Bruun Larsen → Lesley Ugochukwu
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Florentino
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Morgan Gibbs-White
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
69'
64'
Event
Lyle Foster → Marcus Edwards
3rd Substitution
Event
Morgan Gibbs-White
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
Event
Igor Jesus → Dilane Bakwa
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Zian Flemming
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Jair Cunha  → Murillo
1st Substitution
42'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Nicolás Domínguez fouled a player from Nottingham Forest.
90
Update Update
Hjalmar Ekdal from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nottingham Forest leads Burnley 4-1. Igor Jesus scores for Nottingham Forest with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Nicolás Domínguez with a through ball during a fast break.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with Nottingham Forest winning 4-1 against Burnley.
90
Update Update
Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest is flagged for offside.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 8 minutes of added time.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Nicolás Domínguez replaces Morgan Gibbs-White.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Morato replaces Omari Hutchinson.
87
Attempt Attempt
Neco Williams from Nottingham Forest had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the left side of the box but missing narrowly. Ibrahim Sangaré provided the assist.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Armando Broja replaces Zian Flemming.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Josh Laurent replaces Florentino.
83
Attempt Attempt
Maxime Estève's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from James Ward-Prowse, who provided the cross.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Loum Tchaouna replaces Jaidon Anthony.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Burnley after a concession by Elliot Anderson.
80
Update Update
Kyle Walker fouled a Burnley player.
80
Update Update
Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest won a free kick on the left wing.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kyle Walker of Burnley receives a yellow card for a foul.
77
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Morgan Gibbs-White scores for Nottingham Forest with a header from the center of the box. The score is now Nottingham Forest 3, Burnley 1.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Jacob Bruun Larsen replaces Lesley Ugochukwu.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Ryan Yates replaces Chris Wood.
75
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Florentino from Burnley receives a yellow card for a foul.
75
Update Update
Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
72
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after Kyle Walker concedes.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nottingham Forest lead 2-1 against Burnley. Morgan Gibbs-White scores for Nottingham Forest with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box to the center of the goal, assisted by Omari Hutchinson.
68
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after Lesley Ugochukwu concedes.
66
Update Update
Lyle Foster from Burnley committed a foul.
66
Update Update
Chris Wood of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
65
Corner Corner
Burnley wins a corner after Matz Sels concedes.
65
Corner Corner
Lyle Foster from Burnley attempts a shot with his left foot from the center of the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Matz Sels of Nottingham Forest. The assist came from Jaidon Anthony with a cross.
64
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Burnley: Lyle Foster replaces Marcus Edwards.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Morgan Gibbs-White scores for Nottingham Forest with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the right corner. The match is now 1-1.
59
Update Update
Jaidon Anthony from Burnley won a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Martin Dúbravka from Burnley.
54
Update Update
Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest won a free kick on the right wing.
54
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
53
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box but missing to the left.
53
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Igor Jesus from Nottingham Forest had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked. The assist came from Chris Wood.
51
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
51
Update Update
Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
50
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
50
Update Update
Jair Cunha of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
49
Update Update
James Ward-Prowse of Burnley won a free kick in an attacking position.
49
Update Update
Foul by Igor Jesus of Nottingham Forest.
46
Corner Corner
Burnley win a corner after Neco Williams concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Nottingham Forest 0, Burnley 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
Morgan Gibbs-White from Nottingham Forest attempts a shot with his left foot from the center of the box, but it's saved.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Burnley takes the lead 1-0 against Nottingham Forest as Zian Flemming scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner, assisted by Quilindschy Hartman.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with Nottingham Forest trailing Burnley 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Igor Jesus replaces Dilane Bakwa.
42
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Nottingham Forest: Jair Cunha replaces Murillo due to injury.
40
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Murillo from Nottingham Forest.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Chris Wood of Nottingham Forest headed the ball from the right side of the six-yard box.
34
Attempt Attempt
Neco Williams of Nottingham Forest has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
34
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest wins a corner after Lesley Ugochukwu concedes.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Florentino against Burnley.
30
Update Update
Fouled by Zian Flemming of Burnley.
30
Update Update
Omari Hutchinson of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in an attacking position.
29
Update Update
Foul committed by Lesley Ugochukwu of Burnley.
29
Update Update
Ibrahim Sangaré of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Elliot Anderson fouls a Nottingham Forest player.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Ibrahim Sangaré of Nottingham Forest.
28
Update Update
Marcus Edwards from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
28
Update Update
Zian Flemming from Burnley won a free kick on the left wing.
25
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. James Ward-Prowse from Burnley takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved.
23
Update Update
Marcus Edwards from Burnley won a free kick in an attacking position.
23
Update Update
Elliot Anderson commits a foul for Nottingham Forest.
22
Update Update
Offside called against Nottingham Forest. Morgan Gibbs-White is offside.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Nikola Milenkovic against Nottingham Forest.
19
Update Update
Zian Flemming of Burnley won a free kick in defense.
17
Update Update
Zian Flemming from Burnley won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Ibrahim Sangaré of Nottingham Forest won a free kick in defense.
7
Corner Corner
Nottingham Forest win a corner after Marcus Edwards concedes.
5
Corner Corner
Burnley win a corner after Neco Williams concedes.
1
Update Update
Dilane Bakwa of Nottingham Forest won a free kick on the right wing.
1
Update Update
Quilindschy Hartman from Burnley commits a foul.

CONCLUSION

Nottingham Forest's 4-1 comeback win over Burnley exemplified their second-half potency and mental fortitude, transforming a halftime deficit into a rout without red cards or efficiency anomalies. Minimal 2.1% deviation and perfect market alignment affirmed their favored status, while balanced possession reflected a gritty contest. Burnley's early promise evaporated under sustained pressure, pinpointing defensive frailties on the road. This result bolsters Forest's momentum, signaling readiness for tougher challenges ahead in the season.

Nottingham Forest vs Burnley preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.