Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Europe flag 2025/2026 Europa League, Europe
The City Ground Thu, 30 Apr - 7:00 PM
Europa League
Nottingham Forest NFO
1 Winner 0
Aston Villa AVL
Full Time Thu, 30 Apr 7:00 PM
Semi Finals Leg 1 of 2
Chris Wood  - 71' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Nottingham Forest secured a 1-0 victory over Aston Villa in the first leg of their knockout tie, grabbing a narrow advantage ahead of the second leg. The match was goalless at halftime with both teams sharing 50% possession, reflecting a tightly contested affair. Despite Aston Villa entering as the stronger team, Forest broke the deadlock in the second half and maintained defensive solidity to protect their lead. No red cards were shown, and no significant second-half adjustments occurred, keeping the game balanced until the crucial goal. The aggregate score now stands at 1-0 to Forest. This outcome displayed minimal structural deviation of 4.4%, with efficiencies in line with expectations. xG data was unavailable, limiting deeper analysis of chance quality. The result positions Forest favorably but leaves the tie open.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nottingham Forest's win showed minimal structural deviation of 4.4%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiencies for both teams remained in line with pre-match assessments.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: The result fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: Performance against xG expectations is unassessable without data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Zero red cards ensured no distortion from disciplinary incidents.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

Joao Pedro Pinheiro

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Alves Jesus

1st Assistant

L. Gomes Maia

2nd Assistant

E. Eskås

4th Official

Nottingham Forest V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
V. de Oliveira Lopes Pereira
VS
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
1.82
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: 87 W
Porto Rank: 87 D
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 W
FC Midtjylland Rank: 79 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 L
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: 79 W
Bologna Rank: 79 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 W
Salzburg Rank: 69 W
Fenerbahçe Rank: 84 W
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nottingham Forest
95.61%
Draw
4.2%
Away Aston Villa
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nottingham Forest
+2.22%
Draw
-2.21%
Aston Villa
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
87.2
90.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Power Score
87.2
90.41
League Position
13
2
Global Rank
23
10

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nottingham Forest — Opponent-weighted form score
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nottingham Forest Aston Villa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nottingham Forest

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nottingham Forest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.90
25.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.30
26.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nottingham Forest +0.16 Efficiency Index
vs
Aston Villa -0.16 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nottingham Forest ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Aston Villa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nottingham Forest Aston Villa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nottingham Forest Aston Villa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nottingham Forest
vs
Aston Villa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nottingham Forest Aston Villa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nottingham Forest 0.22
Aston Villa 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nottingham Forest Aston Villa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nottingham Forest 0.00
Aston Villa 0.02
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NFO had peak pressure around 34'.
  • NFO started the game with stronger pressure.
NFO Pressure AVL Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NFO reached the top pressure at 34' (88.37).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nottingham Forest NFO Home
14 matches
Aston Villa AVL Away
Match Record
3
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
3
Goals
21
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
21
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-05-01T00:02:06+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
S. Ortega Moreno
Germany
27 S. Ortega Moreno
T. Olaoluwa Aina
Substitution
Nigeria
34 T. Olaoluwa Aina
N. Milenković
Serbia
31 N. Milenković
F. Rodrigues
Brazil
4 F. Rodrigues
N. Williams
Wales
3 N. Williams
O. Giraud-Hutchinson
Jamaica
21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
N. Domínguez
Argentina
16 N. Domínguez
E. Anderson
England
8 E. Anderson
M. Gibbs-White
England
10 M. Gibbs-White
I. da Cruz
Substitution
Brazil
19 I. da Cruz
C. Wood
New Zealand
11 C. Wood
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
L. Digne
Substitution
France
12 L. Digne
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
Y. Tielemans
Belgium
8 Y. Tielemans
A. Mvom Onana
Substitution
Belgium
24 A. Mvom Onana
E. Buendía
Substitution
Argentina
10 E. Buendía
M. Rogers
England
27 M. Rogers
J. McGinn
Substitution
Scotland
7 J. McGinn
O. Watkins
England
11 O. Watkins

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 30, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Europa League, Europe · Semi Finals · Leg 1 of 2
Stadium :
The City Ground
Capacity :
30445
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Joao Pedro Pinheiro
Bruno Miguel Alves Jesus
Luciano António Gomes Maia
Espen Eskås

Statistics

Possession
NFO
50%
AVL
50%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 3
49 Dangerous attacks 53
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 7
10 Free kicks 8
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 7
56 Ball Safe 62
9 Successful Headers 13
9 Successful Dribbles 6
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
19 Dribble Attempts 15
10 Throwins 18
7 Goal Attempts 6
2 Injuries 1
2 Substitutions 4
1 Penalties 0

Attacking

85 Attacks 73
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

8 Key Passes 8
334 Successful Passes 326
391 Passes 379
40 Long Passes 35
85 Successful Passes Percentage 86
20 Successful Long Passes 24
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 69

Defensive

43 Duels Won 41
16 Tackles 16
7 Interceptions 8
4 Saves 4

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 24
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

27
Stefan Ortega
Stefan Ortega Goalkeeper
6.82
3
Neco Williams
Neco Williams Defender
7.01
4
Morato
Morato Defender
6.9
31
Nikola Milenković
Nikola Milenković Defender
6.95
34
Ola Aina
Ola Aina Defender
6.89
44
Zach Abbott
Zach Abbott
Defender75'
6.72
8
Elliot Anderson
Elliot Anderson Midfielder
7.11
10
Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White Midfielder
6.96
16
Nicolás Domínguez
Nicolás Domínguez Midfielder
7.01
21
Omari Hutchinson
Omari Hutchinson Midfielder
7.04
11
Chris Wood
Chris Wood Attacker
6.76
19
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus Attacker
7.16
22
Ryan Yates
Ryan Yates
Midfielder90'
6.91
Referee : Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
7.03
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
6.69
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
7.11
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
6.82
21
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz
Midfielder78'
7.02
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.84
7
John McGinn
John McGinn Midfielder
6.92
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho
Attacker79'
6.87
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans Midfielder
7.29
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía Midfielder
6.94
22
Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen
Defender79'
6.8
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Midfielder
7.15
26
Lamare Bogarde
Lamare Bogarde
Midfielder55'
6.77
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
7.02
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
6.83

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Ryan Yates  → Igor Jesus
6th Substitution
90'
79'
Event
Ian Maatsen → Emiliano Buendía
4th Substitution
79'
Event
Jadon Sancho → John McGinn
5th Substitution
78'
Event
Douglas Luiz → Lucas Digne
3rd Substitution
78'
Event
Youri Tielemans
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Zach Abbott → Ola Aina 
2nd Substitution
75'
Event
Chris Wood 
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
71'
Event
Omari Hutchinson 
Penalty awarded
69'
55'
Event
Lamare Bogarde → Amadou Onana
1st Substitution

Match Commentary

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nottingham Forest exhibited a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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