Norwich City vs Swansea City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Carrow Road Sat, 25 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Norwich City NOR
1 1
Swansea City SWA
Full Time Sat, 25 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 45 Regular Season
Kenny McLean - 83' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Zan Vipotnik - 53' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Norwich City 1–1 Swansea City. The match ended in a draw. Norwich City showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 50%–50%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Significant 75.7% structural deviation occurred against Norwich City expectations.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency stayed in line with overall expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment failed as the draw defied pre-match projections.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unevaluable from missing metrics.
  • Event impact: No notable events or adjustments altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards present, avoiding any play distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

T. Parsons

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Harrison

1st Assistant

M. McGrath

2nd Assistant

B. Toner

4th Official

Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
VS
Swansea City V. Emanuel Soares Matos
V. Emanuel Soares Matos
1.7
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Derby County Rank: W
Bristol City Rank: W
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Millwall Rank: W
Portsmouth Rank: D
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Queens Park Rangers Rank: W
Southampton Rank: L
Leicester City Rank: W
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Sheffield United Rank: D
Coventry City Rank: L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 3 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Norwich City
55.69%
Draw
24.29%
Away Swansea City
20.02%

Movement

Changes since opening
Norwich City
+48.46%
Draw
-64.39%
Swansea City
+15.93%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
35.36
23.11
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Norwich City
Swansea City
Power Score
35.36
23.11
League Position
9
11
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

vs
Norwich City Opponent-weighted form score
Swansea City Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Norwich City Swansea City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

vs

Norwich City

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Swansea City

Left / Center / Right
Opposition half density
vs season average

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Norwich City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.90
19.30
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.30
38.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Norwich City +2.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Swansea City -2.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Norwich City
Swansea City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Norwich City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Swansea City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Norwich City Swansea City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
vs
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Norwich City Swansea City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
vs
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Norwich City
Swansea City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Norwich City
vs
Swansea City
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Norwich City Swansea City
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Norwich City Swansea City
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
Norwich City
Swansea City
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NOR had peak pressure around 86'.
  • SWA started the game with stronger pressure.
NOR Pressure SWA Pressure
Pressure Index: NOR reached the top pressure at 86' (85.71).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Norwich City NOR Home
23 matches
Swansea City SWA Away
Match Record
10
Wins
10
3
Draws
3
10
Losses
10
Goals
35
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
35
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-26T00:04:14+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Kovačević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 V. Kovačević
J. Stacey
England
3 J. Stacey
H. Darling
England
6 H. Darling
J. Cordoba Chambers
Panama
33 J. Cordoba Chambers
K. Fisher
England
35 K. Fisher
P. Mattsson
Denmark
7 P. Mattsson
K. McLean
Scotland
23 K. McLean
E. Maghoma
Substitution
England
25 E. Maghoma
A. Slimane
Substitution
Tunisia
20 A. Slimane
L. Gibbs
Substitution
England
8 L. Gibbs
M. Toure
Substitution
Australia
37 M. Toure
Pitch
L. Vigouroux
Chile
22 L. Vigouroux
J. Tymon
England
14 J. Tymon
C. Burgess
Australia
15 C. Burgess
B. Cabango
Wales
5 B. Cabango
J. Ward
Substitution
England
25 J. Ward
M. Stamenic
New Zealand
6 M. Stamenic
M. Junior Yalcouyé
Substitution
Mali
8 M. Junior Yalcouyé
J. Eom
Substitution
South Korea
10 J. Eom
G. Franco
Substitution
Portugal
17 G. Franco
R. Pereira Martins
Brazil
35 R. Pereira Martins
Ž. Vipotnik
Substitution
Slovenia
9 Ž. Vipotnik

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 25, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 45 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Carrow Road
Capacity :
27244
Attendance :
26454
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Thomas Parsons
David Harrison
Matt McGrath
Ben Toner

Statistics

Possession
NOR
51%
SWA
49%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
5 Shots 3
69 Dangerous attacks 33
50 Possession 50
5 Corners 2
8 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

29 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
24 Throwins 14
17 Dribble Attempts 5
5 Successful Dribbles 3
10 Successful Headers 12
5 Goal Kicks 10
79 Ball Safe 94
12 Goal Attempts 4
1 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

96 Attacks 74
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

57 Long Passes 73
330 Successful Passes 326
424 Passes 428
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
23 Successful Long Passes 24
78 Successful Passes Percentage 76
10 Key Passes 4

Defensive

36 Duels Won 48
12 Tackles 20
1 Saves 8
14 Interceptions 10

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
15 Total Crosses 6

Discipline

13 Fouls 9
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Thomas Parsons

Starting XI

1
Vladan Kovačević
Vladan Kovačević Goalkeeper
6.86
3
Jack Stacey
Jack Stacey Defender
6.69
6
Harry Darling
Harry Darling Defender
6.88
33
José Córdoba
José Córdoba Defender
6.88
35
Kellen Fisher
Kellen Fisher Defender
6.76
7
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson Midfielder
6.9
8
Liam Gibbs
Liam Gibbs Midfielder
6.75
18
Amankwah Forson
Amankwah Forson
Midfielder90'
6.61
20
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane Midfielder
6.91
21
Ali Ahmed
Ali Ahmed
Defender62'
7.08
23
Kenny McLean
Kenny McLean Midfielder
7.08
25
Paris Maghoma
Paris Maghoma Midfielder
7.08
16
Jacob Wright
Jacob Wright
Midfielder77'
6.72
37
Mohamed Touré
Mohamed Touré Attacker
7.36
30
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Attacker78'
6.67
Referee : Thomas Parsons

Starting XI

22
Lawrence Vigouroux
Lawrence Vigouroux Goalkeeper
6.97
5
Ben Cabango
Ben Cabango Defender
6.9
14
Josh Tymon
Josh Tymon Defender
6.97
15
Cameron Burgess
Cameron Burgess Defender
6.96
25
Joel Ward
Joel Ward Defender
6.49
2
Josh Key
Josh Key
Defender60'
6.68
6
Marko Stamenić
Marko Stamenić Midfielder
6.8
8
Malick Yalcouyé
Malick Yalcouyé Midfielder
6.62
7
Melker Widell
Melker Widell
Midfielder74'
6.64
10
Ji-sung Eom
Ji-sung Eom Midfielder
6.86
21
Leo Walta
Leo Walta
Midfielder74'
6.66
17
Gonçalo Franco
Gonçalo Franco Midfielder
6.89
20
Liam Cullen
Liam Cullen
Attacker68'
6.69
35
Ronald
Ronald Midfielder
6.78
9
Zan Vipotnik
Zan Vipotnik Attacker
7.04
33
Adam Idah
Adam Idah
Attacker60'
6.67

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Amankwah Forson Liam Gibbs
9th Substitution
90'
Event
Kenny McLean
Left foot shot / 2nd Penalty
83'
81'
Event
Lawrence Vigouroux
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
Event
Mathias Kvistgaarden Mohamed Touré
8th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Melker Widell
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Jacob Wright Paris Maghoma
7th Substitution
77'
74'
Event
Leo Walta Ji-sung Eom
5th Substitution
74'
Event
Melker Widell Malick Yalcouyé
6th Substitution
Event
Ali Ahmed
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
69'
68'
Event
Liam Cullen Gonçalo Franco
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Josh Tymon
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Kellen Fisher
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
64'
Event
Ali Ahmed Anis Slimane
3rd Substitution
62'
60'
Event
Adam Idah Zan Vipotnik
1st Substitution
60'
Event
Josh Key Joel Ward
2nd Substitution
Event
P. Mattsson
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
59'
53'
Event
Zan Vipotnik
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
1ST-HALF
43'
Event
Ji-sung Eom
Simulation / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Marko Stamenić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Amankwah Forson comes on for Liam Gibbs.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacob Wright of Norwich City.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Joshua Key of Swansea City.
90
Update Update
Ronald from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 7 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Norwich City and Swansea City.
90
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Amankwah Forson from Norwich City has a left-footed shot from outside the box that goes too high, assisted by Pelle Mattsson.
88
Corner Corner
Kenny McLean from Norwich City misses a header from the left side of the six-yard box, sending the ball to the right. Jacob Wright provided the assist with a cross after a corner.
87
Corner Corner
Norwich City wins a corner after Ben Cabango concedes.
87
Attempt Attempt
Kenny McLean's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is saved in the center of the goal by Lawrence Vigouroux. The attempt was assisted by Pelle Mattsson.
85
Update Update
Marko Stamenic from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City.
83
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal in the penalty shootout! Kenny McLean scores for Norwich City with a left-footed shot to the center of the goal. The match remains 1-1.
81
Update Update
Penalty awarded to Norwich City as Mathias Kvistgaarden is fouled in the penalty area.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lawrence Vigouroux of Swansea City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
81
Update Update
Lawrence Vigouroux of Swansea City conceded a penalty after committing a foul in the penalty area.
80
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Ali Ahmed from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, but it goes wide to the right. Pelle Mattsson provided the assist.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Mathias Kvistgaarden comes on for Mohamed Touré.
78
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
78
Update Update
Melker Widell of Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Melker Widell from Swansea City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Jacob Wright comes on for Paris Maghoma.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Leo Walta comes on for Eom Ji-Sung due to an injury.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Melker Widell comes on for Malick Yalcouyé.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ali Ahmed of Norwich City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Ali Ahmed of Norwich City.
69
Update Update
Marko Stamenic from Swansea City is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
68
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Liam Cullen comes on for Gonçalo Franco.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Josh Tymon of Swansea City receives a yellow card.
65
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City misses a header from a difficult angle on the left, sending the ball wide to the left.
64
Update Update
Foul by Kellen Fisher of Norwich City.
64
Update Update
Ronald from Swansea City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
64
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kellen Fisher of Norwich City receives a yellow card for a foul.
63
Update Update
Mohamed Touré from Norwich City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
63
Update Update
Foul committed by Cameron Burgess of Swansea City.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Ali Ahmed comes on for Anis Ben Slimane.
61
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City misses an attempt with a header from the center of the box, sending it just a bit too high. The cross was assisted by Josh Tymon.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Joshua Key comes on for Joel Ward.
60
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Swansea City: Adam Idah comes on for Zan Vipotnik.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City.
59
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
56
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco is caught offside for Swansea City.
55
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Mohamed Touré from Norwich City.
55
Attempt Attempt
Anis Ben Slimane's right-footed shot from the center of the box is saved by Lawrence Vigouroux in the center of the goal. The attempt was assisted by Mohamed Touré.
53
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Zan Vipotnik scores for Swansea City with a right-footed shot into the bottom right corner. The match is now 0-1 in favor of Swansea City.
51
Update Update
Swansea City awarded a penalty after Zan Vipotnik is fouled in the penalty area.
51
Update Update
José Córdoba of Norwich City concedes a penalty after a foul in the penalty area.
50
Update Update
Foul committed by Liam Gibbs of Norwich City.
50
Update Update
Joel Ward from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City has a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the top center of the goal by Vladan Kovacevic from Norwich City.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at Norwich City 0, Swansea City 0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match score at 0-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with the score at Norwich City 0, Swansea City 0.
44
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane of Norwich City is caught offside.
44
Update Update
Offside called against Norwich City. Anis Ben Slimane is the player caught offside.
43
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City receives a yellow card.
42
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane commits a handball for Norwich City.
42
Update Update
Kenny McLean wins a free kick for Norwich City in the defensive half.
42
Update Update
Swansea City player has gone down, but the referee considers it simulation.
39
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
39
Update Update
Foul committed by Anis Ben Slimane of Norwich City.
37
Attempt Attempt
Harry Darling from Norwich City misses a right-footed shot from the left side of the box, sending it to the right.
36
Corner Corner
Norwich City win a corner after Cameron Burgess concedes.
36
Attempt Attempt
Attempt blocked. José Córdoba of Norwich City has a left-footed shot from the center of the box that is blocked.
35
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Paris Maghoma's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved.
35
Corner Corner
Norwich City win a corner after Lawrence Vigouroux concedes.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Kellen Fisher of Norwich City.
33
Update Update
Zan Vipotnik from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
28
Corner Corner
Swansea City wins a corner after Kellen Fisher concedes.
26
Update Update
Kenny McLean commits a foul for Norwich City.
26
Update Update
Malick Yalcouyé from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marko Stamenic of Swansea City receives a yellow card for a bad foul.
24
Update Update
Marko Stamenic of Swansea City is penalized for dangerous play.
24
Attempt Attempt
Ronald's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Gonçalo Franco.
24
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
22
Update Update
Foul committed by Paris Maghoma of Norwich City.
22
Update Update
Eom Ji-Sung from Swansea City wins a free kick in the defensive half.
20
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Marko Stamenic from Swansea City.
19
Corner Corner
Anis Ben Slimane of Norwich City has his right-footed shot from a tough angle on the left saved in the bottom left corner by Lawrence Vigouroux of Swansea City, with assistance from Liam Gibbs.
18
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Liam Gibbs from Norwich City has his left-footed shot from outside the box saved.
18
Attempt Attempt
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City misses a right-footed shot from the center of the box, sending it to the right. The attempt was assisted by Eom Ji-Sung with a cross.
16
Corner Corner
Norwich City wins a corner after a concession by Josh Tymon.
16
Corner Corner
Harry Darling from Norwich City misses the attempt, heading the ball just a bit too high from the center of the box. The cross came from Liam Gibbs after a corner.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after a concession by Lawrence Vigouroux.
15
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Mohamed Touré from Norwich City has his right-footed shot from the center of the box saved in the bottom left corner by Lawrence Vigouroux of Swansea City.
10
Update Update
Gonçalo Franco from Swansea City wins a free kick on the right wing.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Kenny McLean of Norwich City.
9
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Paris Maghoma's right-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Lawrence Vigouroux.
8
Update Update
Foul committed by Gonçalo Franco of Swansea City.
8
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
6
Update Update
Kenny McLean wins a free kick for Norwich City in the defensive half.
6
Update Update
Foul committed by Zan Vipotnik of Swansea City.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Ronald of Swansea City.
3
Update Update
Anis Ben Slimane from Norwich City wins a free kick in the attacking half.
3
Attempt Attempt
Kellen Fisher's right-footed shot from outside the box for Norwich City is blocked.
2
Corner Corner
Swansea City wins a corner after José Córdoba concedes.
2
Attempt Attempt
Malick Yalcouyé's right-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.

CONCLUSION

In a match brimming with parity, Norwich City's 1-1 stalemate with Swansea City exposed vulnerabilities despite their status as the stronger outfit. The goalless first half set a cagey tone, and while Norwich struck first post-interval, Swansea's swift response ensured shared points. Even possession reflected a battle of attrition, with no red cards disrupting flow. This significant deviation from anticipated home dominance prompts questions over Norwich's finishing prowess and Swansea's road resilience. Both sides depart with merits: Norwich for chances created, Swansea for clinical resolve. The draw tempers Norwich's ambitions while boosting Swansea's survival hopes, encapsulating the Championship's unpredictability.

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