Norwich City vs Portsmouth Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Carrow Road Fri, 3 Apr - 2:00 PM
Championship
Norwich City NOR
1 – 1
Portsmouth PTM
Full Time Fri, 3 Apr 2:00 PM
Round 40 Regular Season
P. Mattsson - 26'
Goal
|
Goal
P. Mattsson - 84' (Own Goal)

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished with a full-time score of Norwich City 0, Portsmouth 1. This away victory represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, as Portsmouth successfully defied the odds. The market initially favored the stronger Norwich City side with a 46.4% win probability, while a Portsmouth victory sat at just 27.4% and a draw at 26.2%. Consequently, the final outcome was not aligned with the pre-match market. Norwich City controlled the ball for the majority of the game, holding 58% possession compared to Portsmouth's 42%. Curiously, while halftime data indicated Norwich held a 1-0 advantage, Portsmouth ultimately emerged as the 1-0 full-time winners. Expected goals (xG) figures were unavailable for this fixture, so it cannot be determined if the final score was consistent with the overall quality of chances created. Despite the upset, both teams' efficiency shifts were recorded as being in line with baseline expectations. The match was also contested without any major disciplinary disruptions; neither team received a red card, ensuring that numerical disadvantages played no role in Portsmouth's surprise victory.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Portsmouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. Martin

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Smith

1st Assistant

R. Woodward

2nd Assistant

A. Chilowicz

4th Official

Norwich City P. Clement
P. Clement
VS
Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
1.48
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.03
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 W
Southampton Rank: 73 L
Preston North End Rank: 65 W
Sheffield United Rank: 71 W
Leicester City Rank: 68 W
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: 52 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Queens Park Rangers Rank: 65 L
Derby County Rank: 68 L
Swansea City Rank: 68 L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: 67 D
Hull City Rank: 71 L
Wrexham Rank: 74 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Norwich City
46.39%
Draw
26.24%
Away Portsmouth
27.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.5
65.14
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Norwich City
Portsmouth
Power Score
71.5
65.14
League Position
11
21
Global Rank
163
316

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Norwich City — Opponent-weighted form score
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Norwich City Portsmouth

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Norwich City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Norwich City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Portsmouth
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
14.40
19.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.17
14.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Norwich City -0.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Portsmouth +0.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Norwich City
Portsmouth
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Norwich City ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Portsmouth
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Norwich City Portsmouth
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Norwich City Portsmouth
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Norwich City
Portsmouth
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Norwich City
vs
Portsmouth
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Norwich City Portsmouth
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Norwich City 0.13
Portsmouth 0.08
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Norwich City Portsmouth
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Norwich City 0.02
Portsmouth 0.02
Norwich City
Portsmouth
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 8 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Norwich City NOR Home
8 matches
Portsmouth PTM Away
Match Record
2
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
12
12
Goals Conceded
9
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T00:02:15+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Kovačević
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 V. Kovačević
L. Gibbs
Substitution
England
8 L. Gibbs
H. Darling
England
6 H. Darling
J. Medić
Substitution
Croatia
5 J. Medić
K. Fisher
England
35 K. Fisher
K. McLean
Scotland
23 K. McLean
P. Mattsson
Denmark
7 P. Mattsson
E. Maghoma
England
25 E. Maghoma
J. Wright
Substitution
England
16 J. Wright
O. Schwartau
Substitution
Denmark
29 O. Schwartau
M. Kvistgaarden
Substitution
Denmark
30 M. Kvistgaarden
Pitch
N. Schmid
Austria
1 N. Schmid
C. Ogilvie
England
3 C. Ogilvie
M. Dia
Substitution
Senegal
55 M. Dia
R. Poole
Wales
5 R. Poole
T. Devlin
Northern Ireland
24 T. Devlin
L. Le Roux
South Africa
16 L. Le Roux
M. Pack
Substitution
England
7 M. Pack
M. Alli
Substitution
Republic of Ireland
27 M. Alli
C. Chaplin
Substitution
England
36 C. Chaplin
G. Caballero
Substitution
Paraguay
47 G. Caballero
C. Bishop
England
9 C. Bishop

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 03, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Championship, England · Round 40 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Carrow Road
Capacity :
27244
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Stephen Martin
Matthew Smith
Richard Woodward
Alex Chilowicz

Statistics

Possession
NOR
52%
PTM
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Shots 2
47 Dangerous attacks 61
58 Possession 42
5 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 17
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
10 Goal Kicks 3
14 Throwins 18
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 70
5 Successful Dribbles 7
20 Successful Headers 30
5 Dribble Attempts 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1
49 Ball Safe 51
5 Goal Attempts 2

Attacking

71 Attacks 93

Possession

281 Successful Passes 183
3 Key Passes 4
79 Successful Passes Percentage 74
355 Passes 249
26 Long Passes 33

Defensive

50 Duels Won 65
2 Interceptions 13
9 Tackles 7
1 Saves 2

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 23

Discipline

17 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

1
Vladan Kovačević
Vladan Kovačević Goalkeeper
5
Jakov Medic
Jakov Medic Defender
33
José Córdoba
José Córdoba
Defender83'
6
Harry Darling
Harry Darling Defender
8
Liam Gibbs
Liam Gibbs Defender
3
Jack Stacey
Jack Stacey
Defender62'
35
Kellen Fisher
Kellen Fisher Defender
7
P. Mattsson
P. Mattsson Midfielder
16
Jacob Wright
Jacob Wright Midfielder
20
Anis Slimane
Anis Slimane
Midfielder73'
23
Kenny McLean
Kenny McLean Midfielder
25
Paris Maghoma
Paris Maghoma Midfielder
29
Oscar Schwartau
Oscar Schwartau Midfielder
21
Ali Ahmed
Ali Ahmed
Defender63'
30
Mathias Kvistgaarden
Mathias Kvistgaarden Attacker
37
Mohamed Touré
Mohamed Touré
Attacker63'
Referee : Stephen Martin

Starting XI ▼

1
Nicolas Schmid
Nicolas Schmid Goalkeeper
3
Connor Ogilvie
Connor Ogilvie Defender
5
Regan Poole
Regan Poole Defender
24
Terry Devlin
Terry Devlin Defender
55
Madiodio Dia
Madiodio Dia Defender
6
Conor Shaughnessy
Conor Shaughnessy
Defender86'
7
Marlon Pack
Marlon Pack Midfielder
21
Andre Dozzell
Andre Dozzell
Midfielder65'
16
Luke Le Roux
Luke Le Roux Midfielder
27
Millenic Alli
Millenic Alli Midfielder
37
Keshi Anderson
Keshi Anderson
Midfielder65'
36
Conor Chaplin
Conor Chaplin Midfielder
40
Jacob Brown
Jacob Brown
Attacker78'
47
Gustavo Caballero
Gustavo Caballero Midfielder
29
Harvey Blair
Harvey Blair
Attacker78'
9
Colby Bishop
Colby Bishop Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Jacob Brown
8th Yellowcard
87'
Event
Colby Bishop
7th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Conor Shaughnessy → Madiodio Dia
10th Substitution
84'
Event
P. Mattsson
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
Event
José Córdoba → Jakov Medic
9th Substitution
83'
78'
Event
Harvey Blair → Gustavo Caballero
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Jacob Brown → Conor Chaplin
8th Substitution
Event
Anis Slimane → Jacob Wright
6th Substitution
73'
Event
P. Mattsson
6th Yellowcard
67'
65'
Event
Andre Dozzell → Marlon Pack
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Keshi Anderson → Millenic Alli
4th Substitution
Event
Ali Ahmed → Oscar Schwartau
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Mohamed Touré → Mathias Kvistgaarden
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Jack Stacey → Liam Gibbs
1st Substitution
62'
Event
Jacob Wright
5th Yellowcard
48'
Event
Liam Gibbs
4th Yellowcard
46'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Gustavo Caballero
3rd Yellowcard
Event
P. Mattsson
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
26'
16'
Event
Connor Ogilvie
2nd Yellowcard
5'
Event
Marlon Pack
1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 4 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Paris Maghoma of Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
90
Corner Corner
Norwich City wins a corner after Conor Shaughnessy concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacob Brown against Portsmouth.
90
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Ali Ahmed from Norwich City takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved by Portsmouth's goalkeeper Nicolas Schmid in the center of the goal.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Brown from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by José Córdoba of Norwich City.
90
Update Update
The second half ends with the match finishing 1-1 between Norwich City and Portsmouth.
90
Update Update
Regan Poole from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
88
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Keshi Anderson concedes.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
87
Update Update
Ali Ahmed from Norwich City won a free kick on the left wing.
87
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Conor Shaughnessy replaces Madiodio Dia.
85
Update Update
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
85
Update Update
Foul committed by Paris Maghoma of Norwich City.
84
Attempt Attempt
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth missed a header from the center of the box, shooting to the left. The assist came from Andre Dozzell, who provided the cross.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Own goal by Pelle Mattsson for Norwich City. The match is now 1-1 against Portsmouth.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: José Córdoba replaces Jakov Medic.
82
Update Update
Kellen Fisher fouls a player from Norwich City.
82
Update Update
Harvey Blair from Portsmouth won a free kick on the right wing.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after Regan Poole concedes.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Harvey Blair replaces Gustavo Caballero.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Jacob Brown replaces Conor Chaplin.
75
Update Update
Fouled by Gustavo Caballero of Portsmouth.
75
Update Update
Kellen Fisher of Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
74
Update Update
Offside called against Norwich City. Ali Ahmed is offside.
73
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Anis Ben Slimane replaces Jacob Wright.
73
Update Update
Offside called against Norwich City. Jack Stacey is offside.
68
Attempt Attempt
Gustavo Caballero's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Conor Chaplin.
67
Update Update
Andre Dozzell of Portsmouth won a free kick in an attacking position.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City receives a yellow card for a foul.
67
Update Update
Paris Maghoma of Norwich City misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high. Kellen Fisher provided the assist.
67
Update Update
Foul committed by Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Andre Dozzell replaces Marlon Pack.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Keshi Anderson replaces Millenic Alli.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Ali Ahmed replaces Oscar Schwartau.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Mohamed Touré replaces Mathias Kvistgaarden.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Norwich City: Jack Stacey replaces Liam Gibbs.
61
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Jacob Wright concedes.
61
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Jakov Medic concedes.
56
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
56
Update Update
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth committed a foul.
55
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Mathias Kvistgaarden of Norwich City.
55
Update Update
Offside called against Portsmouth. Millenic Alli is offside.
54
Update Update
Fouled by Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City.
54
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
53
Update Update
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
53
Update Update
Fouled by Millenic Alli of Portsmouth.
50
Update Update
Conor Chaplin is flagged for offside for Portsmouth.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jacob Wright from Norwich City receives a yellow card for a foul.
47
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth won a free kick on the right wing.
47
Update Update
Foul committed by Jacob Wright of Norwich City.
46
Update Update
Liam Gibbs from Norwich City commits a foul.
46
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Gibbs of Norwich City receives a yellow card for a foul.
46
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth won a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Terry Devlin's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Marlon Pack's cross.
45
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Pelle Mattsson concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Norwich City leading Portsmouth 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of added time.
43
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Terry Devlin from Portsmouth.
43
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
43
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Terry Devlin from Portsmouth.
43
Update Update
Foul committed by Oscar Schwartau of Norwich City.
42
Attempt Attempt
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth attempts an attack with a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it is saved.
41
Update Update
Conor Chaplin of Portsmouth won a free kick in the attacking area.
41
Update Update
Foul committed by Harry Darling of Norwich City.
39
Update Update
Kenny McLean from Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
35
Corner Corner
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth missed a header from close range. The assist came from Conor Chaplin, who delivered a cross after a corner.
35
Attempt Attempt
Madiodio Dia's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Regan Poole provided the assist.
35
Corner Corner
Portsmouth win a corner after Jacob Wright concedes.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Oscar Schwartau of Norwich City.
34
Update Update
Terry Devlin of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
31
Update Update
Paris Maghoma fouled a Norwich City player.
31
Update Update
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
30
Update Update
Foul committed by Gustavo Caballero of Portsmouth.
30
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
30
Update Update
Kellen Fisher of Norwich City won a free kick in the attacking area.
28
Corner Corner
Portsmouth wins a corner after Liam Gibbs concedes.
26
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Norwich City leads Portsmouth 1-0. Pelle Mattsson scores for Norwich City with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the left corner.
24
Corner Corner
Portsmouth wins a corner after Kellen Fisher concedes.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Mathias Kvistgaarden of Norwich City.
20
Update Update
Regan Poole from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
19
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jacob Wright of Norwich City took a right-footed shot from a difficult position and long distance on the left following a free kick.
17
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth committed a foul.
17
Update Update
Oscar Schwartau from Norwich City won a free kick on the left wing.
16
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
16
Update Update
Paris Maghoma of Norwich City won a free kick in an attacking position.
15
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Nicolas Schmid from Portsmouth.
13
Corner Corner
Pelle Mattsson from Norwich City missed a chance, heading the ball from the center of the box after a corner.
12
Corner Corner
Norwich City wins a corner after Madiodio Dia concedes.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Norwich City after being conceded by Madiodio Dia.
11
Corner Corner
Norwich City win a corner after Regan Poole concedes.
9
Update Update
Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
9
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City committed a foul.
8
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth commits a foul.
8
Update Update
Pelle Mattsson of Norwich City won a free kick in defense.
6
Update Update
Millenic Alli of Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
6
Attempt Attempt
Kenny McLean's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
6
Update Update
Kellen Fisher from Norwich City committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth commits a foul.
5
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth receives a yellow card for a foul.
5
Update Update
Kenny McLean of Norwich City won a free kick in an attacking position.
4
Update Update
Colby Bishop of Portsmouth is flagged for offside.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Paris Maghoma of Norwich City.
3
Update Update
Connor Ogilvie from Portsmouth won a free kick in defense.
1
Update Update
Handball by Paris Maghoma of Norwich City.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Portsmouth exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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