Nordsjælland vs AGF Preview, Predictions, Analysis & Tips

2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark

Right to Dream Park Thu, 23 Apr - 4:00 PM

Superliga

Nordsjælland FCN

1 – 1

AGF AGF

Full Time Thu, 23 Apr 4:00 PM

Round 6 Championship Round

Levy Nene - 83'

Patrick Mortensen - 31'

CONTEXT

Nordsjælland hosted AGF in a closely contested match that ended in a 1-1 draw. The home side, considered the stronger team, dominated possession with 58% compared to AGF's 42% but found themselves trailing 0-1 at halftime. Nordsjælland mounted a comeback in the second half to equalize, securing a point despite their territorial advantage. No red cards were shown, and there were no notable second-half adjustments reported. The result reflects a moderate structural deviation of 8.1% in favor of Nordsjælland, with efficiency in line with expectations. Market alignment held true, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. This outcome underscores Nordsjælland's resilience despite failing to convert their possession into a win.

TL;DR

Structural deviation: Match exhibited moderate structural deviation of 8.1% favoring Nordsjælland.
Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with pre-match expectations.
xG alignment: xG alignment undetermined due to unavailable data.
Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market positioning.
xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without recorded metrics.
Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from player dismissals.

No standings statistics available.

No head-to-head records found.

0.5+ goals: 85%

1.5+ goals: 70%

2.5+ goals: 50%

3.5+ goals: 25%

Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15

Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%

Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

Team	xPts
Home	1.8
Away	1.2

Match referee

M. Krogh

25 matches in sample

Avg. cards

0.12

Fouls / match 0.52

Yellow cards / match 0.12

Red cards / match 0

Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Kolding

2nd Assistant

J. Stausgaard Kobberrød

4th Official

D. Yurdakul

1st Assistant

J. Olsen

J. Poulsen

1.73

Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)

1.93

Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)

Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)

27 - 13 - 17

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)

Nordsjælland

4.07%

Draw

91.85%

AGF

4.07%

Movement

Changes since opening

Nordsjælland

-0.4%

Draw

+0.78%

AGF

-0.4%

Team Power Ranking

39.7

32.61

0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)

Metric

Nordsjælland

AGF

Power Score

39.7

32.61

League Position

Global Rank

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

Nordsjælland — Opponent-weighted form score

AGF — Opponent-weighted form score

Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nordsjælland AGF

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

Nordsjælland

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

AGF

Left / Center / Right —

Opposition half density —

vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nordsjælland ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy AGF

Attacking Efficiency

Higher is better

Attacking Efficiency

39.40

33.93

Defensive Efficiency

Lower is better

Defensive Efficiency

33.93

39.40

Combined Efficiency Index

-3 0 3

Nordsjælland +0.54 Efficiency Index

AGF -0.54 Efficiency Index

xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.

Nordsjælland

AGF

AttackEff = xG ÷ pos

DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nordsjælland ⚠ Proxy

⚠ Proxy AGF

Created Set-piece attacking threat

Nordsjælland AGF

Set-piece xG Share

—

Goals per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xG)

— vs —

Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure

Nordsjælland AGF

Set-piece xGA Share

—

Conceded per Match

0.00 0.00

vs Expected (xGA)

— vs —

xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.

Nordsjælland

AGF

xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG

vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

Nordsjælland

AGF

Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence

Nordsjælland AGF

Goals per Match ↑ better

—

Shots per Match ↑ better

—

Dangerous Attacks ↑ better

—

Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure

Nordsjælland AGF

Goals Conceded ↓ better

—

Shots Conceded ↓ better

—

Dangerous Attacks Conceded ↓ better

—

Nordsjælland

AGF

Window = 15s post-possession change

Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

FCN had peak pressure around 31'.
AGF started the game with stronger pressure.

FCN Pressure AGF Pressure

⚡

Pressure Index: FCN reached the top pressure at 31' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 57 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nordsjælland FCN Home

57 matches

AGF AGF Away

Match Record

Wins

Draws

Losses

Goals

Goals Scored

Goals Conceded

+23

Goal Difference

-23

Data last updated: 2026-04-24T00:01:49+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1

13 A. Hansen

45 N. Hesselund Markmann

3 T. Salquist

36 C. Yirenkyi

25 J. Lähteenmäki

6 M. Brink Christensen

18 J. Meltofte Janssen

23 R. Norheim

37 M. Lamine Sadio

14 I. Adel

10 P. Amoako Junior

1 J. Hansen

19 E. Kahl

3 H. Dalsgaard

2 F. Beijmo

39 F. Emmery Søgaard

10 K. Malt Arnstad

4 M. Knudsen

11 G. Links

31 T. Kristensen

8 S. Jørgensen

9 P. Mortensen

General Information

Date & Time :

Apr 23, 2026, 04:00 PM

Competition :

2025/2026 Superliga, Denmark · Round 6 · Championship Round

Stadium :

Right to Dream Park

Capacity :

9200

Pitch Surface :

Artificial turf

Weather :

☀️ 12°C, Fair

Referees :

Danny Kolding

Jacob Stausgaard Kobberrød

Deniz Yurdakul

Morten Krogh

Statistics

Possession

FCN

56%

AGF

44%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1

4 Big Chances Created 1

4 Shots 3

57 Dangerous attacks 45

58 Possession 42

7 Corners 3

3 Free kicks 18

2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 10

32 Dribble Attempts 14

34 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

15 Throwins 20

1 Assists 1

11 Successful Dribbles 7

5 Substitutions 5

15 Goal Attempts 8

85 Ball Safe 73

1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0

97 Attacks 98

0 Counter Attacks 1

Possession

45 Long Passes 46

17 Key Passes 12

27 Successful Long Passes 21

89 Successful Passes Percentage 84

503 Successful Passes 347

564 Passes 413

60 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46

Defensive

4 Saves 9

38 Duels Won 62

15 Tackles 28

5 Interceptions 6

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 11

6 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

18 Fouls 3

0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Morten Krogh

Manager ▼

J. Olsen Coach

Starting XI ▼

Andreas Hansen Goalkeeper

7.05

Tobias Salquist Defender

6.75

Caleb Yirenkyi Defender

7.08

Noah Markmann Defender

6.73

Villads Rutkjaer

Defender67'

6.78

Mark Brink Midfielder

6.7

Malte Heyde

Midfielder89'

6.62

Justin Janssen Midfielder

6.96

Runar Norheim Midfielder

6.71

Juho Lähteenmäki Midfielder

6.79

Victor Gustafsen

Defender67'

6.46

Prince Amoako Junior Attacker

6.89

Ibrahim Adel Attacker

6.63

Hjalte Boe Rasmussen

Attacker90+1'

6.57

Mamadou Sadio Attacker

7.03

Levy Nene

Attacker67'

6.8

Substitutes ▼

Victor Gustafsen

Defender67'

6.46

Levy Nene

Attacker67'

6.8

Villads Rutkjaer

Defender67'

6.78

Malte Heyde

Midfielder89'

6.62

Hjalte Boe Rasmussen

Attacker90+1'

6.57

Bench ▼

Andreas Gülstorff Goalkeeper

Stephen Acquah Defender

6.54

Villum Berthelsen Midfielder

6.58

Daniel Ingi Johannesson Attacker

6.94

Referee : Morten Krogh