Nieciecza vs Piast Gliwice Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza Mon, 6 Apr - 10:15 AM
Ekstraklasa
Nieciecza Nieciecza
3 Winner 2
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 10:15 AM
Round 27 Regular Season
Damian Hilbrycht - 73'
Kamil Zapolnik - 42'
Jesús Jiménez - 15' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Juande Rivas - 82'
Adrián Dalmau - 69'
|
Second yellow card Ivan Lima 90+6'

CONTEXT

The match between Nieciecza and Piast Gliwice has finished, with Nieciecza securing a surprising 3-2 victory at full-time. The home side took early control, leading 2-0 at halftime, and ultimately secured a win that strongly defied pre-match expectations. Going into the fixture, Piast Gliwice was viewed as the stronger team with a 41.7% implied probability of winning, compared to Nieciecza's 31.8% and a 26.5% chance of a draw. Consequently, the final result did not align with the pre-match market, resulting in a significant deviation driven by Nieciecza's underdog triumph. Despite claiming all three points, Nieciecza managed only 37% of the possession, allowing Piast Gliwice to control the ball 63% of the time. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this match, making it impossible to evaluate if the final scoreline aligned with the underlying chance creation. However, the overall efficiency shift was generally in line with expectations. The match dynamics were heavily impacted by a major disciplinary event, as Piast Gliwice received a red card. This dismissal created a noticeable red card distortion in the second half, complicating the visitors' comeback efforts and helping Nieciecza defend their lead.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nieciecza showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Kos

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

B. Kaszyński

1st Assistant

A. Zakrzewski

2nd Assistant

R. Szydełko

4th Official

Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
VS
Piast Gliwice D. Myśliwiec
D. Myśliwiec
0.87
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.65
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
Motor Lublin Rank: 59 L
Korona Kielce Rank: 60 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 59 D
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 68 L
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 65 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Radomiak Radom Rank: 60 W
Jagiellonia Białystok Rank: 64 W
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 63 L
Cracovia Kraków Rank: 60 W
Motor Lublin Rank: 60 L
Lech Poznań Rank: 69 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nieciecza
31.78%
Draw
26.51%
Away Piast Gliwice
41.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.68
60.75
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
Power Score
47.68
60.75
League Position
18
12
Global Rank
683
443

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Piast Gliwice — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nieciecza Piast Gliwice

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Piast Gliwice

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.89
37.62
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.62
21.89
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nieciecza -1.45 Efficiency Index
vs
Piast Gliwice +1.45 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Piast Gliwice
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nieciecza Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nieciecza Piast Gliwice
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nieciecza
vs
Piast Gliwice
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nieciecza Piast Gliwice
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nieciecza 0.14
Piast Gliwice 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nieciecza Piast Gliwice
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nieciecza 0.03
Piast Gliwice 0.07
Nieciecza
Piast Gliwice
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nieciecza Nieciecza Home
10 matches
Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice Away
Match Record
2
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
2
Goals
11
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
11
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:00:47+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
M. Matysik
Substitution
Poland
32 M. Matysik
L. Masoero Masi
Argentina
5 L. Masoero Masi
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
R. Boboc
Romania
27 R. Boboc
S. Guerrero Romero
Spain
23 S. Guerrero Romero
M. Ambrosiewicz
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
D. Hilbrycht
Substitution
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
I. Strzałek
Substitution
Poland
86 I. Strzałek
K. Zapolnik
Substitution
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik
J. Jiménez Núñez
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez
Pitch
K. Szymanski
Poland
33 K. Szymanski
J. Lewicki
Poland
36 J. Lewicki
I. Drapiński
Poland
29 I. Drapiński
J. Rivas Margalef
Spain
5 J. Rivas Margalef
F. Borowski
Poland
28 F. Borowski
H. Vallejo Avilés
Substitution
Spain
80 H. Vallejo Avilés
P. Dziczek
Poland
10 P. Dziczek
G. Tomasiewicz
Substitution
Poland
20 G. Tomasiewicz
O. Leśniak
Substitution
Poland
31 O. Leśniak
J. Muñoz García
Substitution
Spain
7 J. Muñoz García
G. Barkovskiy
Substitution
Belarus
63 G. Barkovskiy

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 10:15 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 27 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza
Capacity :
4595
Attendance :
2908
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ , Clear
Referees :
Damian Kos
Bartosz Kaszyński
Artur Zakrzewski
Rafał Szydełko

Statistics

Possession
Nieciecza
39%
Piast Gliwice
61%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
0 Shots 5
42 Dangerous attacks 74
37 Possession 63
3 Corners 9
8 Free kicks 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

10 Goal Kicks 3
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
17 Throwins 33
4 Successful Dribbles 10
1 Penalties 0
13 Dribble Attempts 14
1 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 5
75 Ball Safe 77
0 Assists 1
6 Goal Attempts 11
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

80 Attacks 98

Possession

37 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
24 Successful Long Passes 32
64 Successful Passes Percentage 77
186 Successful Passes 364
291 Passes 474
65 Long Passes 66
2 Key Passes 13

Defensive

15 Interceptions 6
40 Duels Won 47
8 Tackles 14
5 Saves 2

Build-up

8 Total Crosses 27
1 Accurate Crosses 9

Discipline

10 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero Defender
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik Defender
29
Gabriel Isik
Gabriel Isik
Defender46'
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
26
Wojciech Jakubik
Wojciech Jakubik
Midfielder90+5'
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero Midfielder
27
Radu Boboc
Radu Boboc Midfielder
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
17
Dominik Biniek
Dominik Biniek
Midfielder78'
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov
Attacker79'
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek Attacker
53
Andrzej Trubeha
Andrzej Trubeha
Attacker68'
Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

33
Karol Szymanski
Karol Szymanski Goalkeeper
5
Juande Rivas
Juande Rivas Defender
28
Filip Borowski
Filip Borowski Defender
29
Igor Drapinski
Igor Drapinski Defender
36
Jakub Lewicki
Jakub Lewicki Defender
10
Patryk Dziczek
Patryk Dziczek Midfielder
20
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
Grzegorz Tomasiewicz Midfielder
6
Michal Chrapek
Michal Chrapek
Midfielder61'
31
Oskar Lesniak
Oskar Lesniak Midfielder
90
Ivan Lima
Ivan Lima
Midfielder68'
80
Hugo Vallejo
Hugo Vallejo Midfielder
11
Leandro Sanca
Leandro Sanca
Midfielder46'
7
Jorge Félix
Jorge Félix Attacker
70
Andreas Katsantonis
Andreas Katsantonis
Attacker61'
63
German Barkovskiy
German Barkovskiy Attacker
9
Adrián Dalmau
Adrián Dalmau
Attacker61'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Ivan Lima
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
Event
Wojciech Jakubik → Damian Hilbrycht
10th Substitution
90+5'
90+4'
Event
Ivan Lima
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
6th Yellowcard
86'
Event
Dominik Biniek
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
85'
82'
Event
Juande Rivas
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Ivan Durdov → Kamil Zapolnik
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Dominik Biniek → Jesús Jiménez
8th Substitution
78'
Event
Damian Hilbrycht
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Damian Hilbrycht
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
73'
69'
Event
Adrián Dalmau
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Andrzej Trubeha → Igor Strzalek
7th Substitution
68'
68'
Event
Ivan Lima → Oskar Lesniak
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Michal Chrapek → Grzegorz Tomasiewicz
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Adrián Dalmau → German Barkovskiy
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Andreas Katsantonis → Jorge Félix
5th Substitution
Event
Gabriel Isik → Milosz Matysik
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Leandro Sanca → Hugo Vallejo
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Kamil Zapolnik
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
42'
Event
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
35'
Event
Jesús Jiménez
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
15'
14'
Event
Jakub Lewicki
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Kamil Zapolnik
Penalty awarded
13'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Nieciecza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.