Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza Sun, 10 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Nieciecza Nieciecza
0 Winner 1
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
Full Time Sun, 10 May 3:30 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
|
Goal
Rafal Adamski - 19'

CONTEXT

Nieciecza faced Legia Warszawa at home, falling to a narrow 0-1 defeat despite dominating possession with 59% to the visitors' 41%. Legia, recognized as the stronger side, struck first and led 0-1 at halftime, a lead they defended resolutely through the second half. The home team pressed but lacked clinical finishing, unable to breach a stubborn Legia defense. No red cards disrupted play, and the match proceeded without significant tactical shifts or standout events in the latter stages. This result underscored Legia's efficiency in converting limited chances while Nieciecza's control failed to yield goals. The minimal structural deviation of 4.8% aligned closely with pre-match assessments favoring the away team. Overall, Legia's road win reflected their superior quality and composure under pressure.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Minimal structural deviation of 4.8% favored Legia Warszawa's victory.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unavailable due to absent xG data.
  • Market alignment: Market alignment confirmed with Legia Warszawa's expected win.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unassessable without xG metrics.
  • Event impact: No events or adjustments altered the match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

K. Arys

Poland
Fouls / match 0
Yellow cards / match 0
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Arys

1st Assistant

Poland

M. Janawa

2nd Assistant

Poland

M. Kuropatwa

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 21.16
Yellow cards / match 3.2
Red cards / match 0.2
Penalties / match 0.2
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
VS
Legia Warszawa M. Papszun
M. Papszun
0.94
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.35
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Katowice Rank: 65 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 57 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 61 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 62 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 71 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 W
Lech Poznań Rank: 70 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Górnik Zabrze Rank: 67 D
Pogoń Szczecin Rank: 62 W
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 D
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 3 - 3
3

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nieciecza
0.19%
Draw
4.58%
Away Legia Warszawa
95.23%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nieciecza
0%
Draw
-0.51%
Legia Warszawa
+0.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
47.05
65.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
Power Score
47.05
65.58
League Position
18
9
Global Rank
752
319

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Legia Warszawa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nieciecza Legia Warszawa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Legia Warszawa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.15
20.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.98
24.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nieciecza +0.29 Efficiency Index
vs
Legia Warszawa -0.29 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Legia Warszawa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nieciecza Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nieciecza Legia Warszawa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nieciecza
vs
Legia Warszawa
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nieciecza Legia Warszawa
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nieciecza 0.12
Legia Warszawa 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nieciecza Legia Warszawa
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nieciecza 0.02
Legia Warszawa 0.00
Nieciecza
Legia Warszawa
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Nieciecza had peak pressure around 70'.
  • Nieciecza started the game with stronger pressure.
Nieciecza Pressure Legia Warszawa Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Nieciecza reached the top pressure at 70' (65.22).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 10 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nieciecza Nieciecza Home
10 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa Away
Match Record
4
Wins
3
3
Draws
3
3
Losses
4
Goals
11
Goals Scored
17
17
Goals Conceded
11
-6
Goal Difference
+6

Data last updated: 2026-05-11T00:04:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
G. Isik
Germany
29 G. Isik
M. Matysik
Substitution
Poland
32 M. Matysik
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
A. Putivtsev
Substitution
Ukraine
77 A. Putivtsev
D. Hilbrycht
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
R. Kurzawa
Poland
8 R. Kurzawa
S. Guerrero Romero
Spain
23 S. Guerrero Romero
M. Ambrosiewicz
Substitution
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
K. Zapolnik
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik
I. Durdov
Substitution
Croatia
19 I. Durdov
Pitch
O. Hindrich
Romania
89 O. Hindrich
R. Pankov
Serbia
12 R. Pankov
R. Augustyniak
Poland
8 R. Augustyniak
K. Piątkowski
Poland
91 K. Piątkowski
P. Kun
Poland
23 P. Kun
D. Szymański
Substitution
Poland
44 D. Szymański
J. Elitim Sepúlveda
Colombia
22 J. Elitim Sepúlveda
B. Kapustka
Poland
67 B. Kapustka
K. Chodyna
Poland
11 K. Chodyna
R. Adamski
Substitution
Poland
9 R. Adamski
J. Nsamé
Substitution
Cameroon
18 J. Nsamé

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza
Capacity :
4595
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Marek Arys
Marcin Janawa
Maciej Kuropatwa
Karol Arys

Statistics

Possession
Nieciecza
57%
Legia Warszawa
43%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
7 Shots 5
85 Dangerous attacks 52
59 Possession 41
6 Corners 1
17 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

22 Throwins 6
0 Assists 1
14 Dribble Attempts 17
10 Goal Kicks 7
57 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
8 Successful Dribbles 8
1 Hit Woodwork 0
4 Substitutions 4
93 Ball Safe 88
0 Injuries 3
7 Goal Attempts 4

Attacking

121 Attacks 81
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

65 Long Passes 58
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 43
26 Successful Long Passes 25
6 Key Passes 6
406 Successful Passes 290
79 Successful Passes Percentage 80
514 Passes 361

Defensive

15 Tackles 13
58 Duels Won 54
5 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 4

Build-up

11 Accurate Crosses 4
29 Total Crosses 11

Discipline

13 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Defender
29
Gabriel Isik
Gabriel Isik Defender
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik Defender
27
Radu Boboc
Radu Boboc
Defender46'
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev Defender
26
Wojciech Jakubik
Wojciech Jakubik
Midfielder86'
8
Rafal Kurzawa
Rafal Kurzawa Midfielder
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero Midfielder
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
53
Andrzej Trubeha
Andrzej Trubeha
Attacker75'
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov Attacker
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez
Attacker46'
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker
Referee : Karol Arys

Starting XI ▼

89
Otto Hindrich
Otto Hindrich Goalkeeper
8
Rafal Augustyniak
Rafal Augustyniak Defender
12
Radovan Pankov
Radovan Pankov Defender
91
Kamil Piatkowski
Kamil Piatkowski Defender
11
Kacper Chodyna
Kacper Chodyna Midfielder
22
Juergen Elitim
Juergen Elitim Midfielder
23
Patryk Kun
Patryk Kun Midfielder
44
Damian Szymanski
Damian Szymanski Midfielder
55
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Artur Jedrzejczyk
Defender78'
67
Bartosz Kapustka
Bartosz Kapustka Midfielder
9
Rafal Adamski
Rafal Adamski Attacker
77
Ermal Krasniqi
Ermal Krasniqi
Attacker71'
18
Jean-Pierre Nsame
Jean-Pierre Nsame Attacker
29
Mileta Rajović
Mileta Rajović
Attacker61'

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Marek Papszun
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Wojciech Jakubik → Artem Putivtsev
8th Substitution
86'
78'
Event
Artur Jedrzejczyk → Damian Szymanski
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Wojciech Urbanski → Mileta Rajović
7th Substitution
Event
Andrzej Trubeha → Maciej Ambrosiewicz
5th Substitution
75'
71'
Event
Ermal Krasniqi → Rafal Adamski
4th Substitution
Event
Rafal Kurzawa
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
62'
61'
Event
Mileta Rajović → Jean-Pierre Nsame
3rd Substitution
53'
Event
Damian Szymanski
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Radu Boboc → Milosz Matysik
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Jesús Jiménez → Ivan Durdov
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Gabriel Isik
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
42'
19'
Event
Rafal Adamski
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Isik's header shot misses the target.
86
Substitution Substitution
Wojciech Jakubik is substituted off for Artem Putivtsev.
79
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Jimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
79
Attempt Attempt
Jesus Jimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
78
Update Update
Artur Jedrzejczyk is on, and Damian Szymanski is off.
78
Update Update
Wojcieh Urbanski is on, and Mileta Rajovic is off.
75
Update Update
Andrzej Trubeha comes on for Maciej Ambrosiewicz.
71
Update Update
Ermal Krasniqi comes on for Rafal Adamski.
61
Update Update
On Mileta Rajovic，Off Jean Pierre Nsame
60
Attempt Attempt
Bartosz Kapustka takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
54
Attempt Attempt
Gabriel Isik's header shot misses the target.
48
Attempt Attempt
Maciej Ambrosiewicz takes a shot with his right foot, but it's saved.
48
Update Update
Kamil Zapolnik's header is blocked.
46
Update Update
Jesus Jimenez comes on for Ivan Durdov.
46
Update Update
Radu Boboc comes on for Milosz Matysik.
43
Attempt Attempt
Juergen Elitim takes a left-footed shot but misses.
42
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Gabriel Isik receives a yellow card.
36
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Adamski takes a header but misses the shot.
36
Update Update
Rafal Adamski takes a header, but it misses the target.
34
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Zapolnik attempts a header but misses the shot.
32
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Adamski takes a shot with his right foot, but it is saved.
19
Update Update
Rafal Adamski scores with a header.
18
Attempt Attempt
Artem Putivtsev takes a left-footed shot but misses.
11
Attempt Attempt
Jean Pierre Nsame attempts a header but misses the shot.
8
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Zapolnik's right-footed shot is saved.

CONCLUSION

Legia Warszawa's 0-1 triumph over Nieciecza validates their status as the stronger outfit, triumphing despite lower possession. The early goal at halftime set the tone, allowing a disciplined defensive display that neutralized Nieciecza's dominance. With no red cards or pivotal events, the game highlighted Legia's clinical edge and resilience. This minimal-deviation outcome reinforces pre-match evaluations, as efficiency held steady without surprises. Nieciecza's inability to capitalize on territory exposes ongoing finishing woes, while Legia extends their strong away form. A professional performance ensures they collect vital points, maintaining momentum in the campaign.

Nieciecza vs Legia Warszawa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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