Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdańsk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza Sat, 23 May - 3:30 PM
Ekstraklasa
Nieciecza Nieciecza
3 Winner 2
Lechia Gdańsk LGD
Full Time Sat, 23 May 3:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Kamil Zapolnik - 57'
Rafal Kurzawa - 29'
Artem Putivtsev - 21'
Goal
|
Goal
Tomas Bobcek - 90+4', 50'

CONTEXT

Nieciecza hosted Lechia Gdańsk in a match that concluded with a 3-2 scoreline in favor of the home side. At halftime the score stood at 2-0 to Nieciecza. Lechia Gdańsk entered as the stronger team according to available indicators but failed to overcome the deficit fully despite dominating possession with 59 percent compared to Nieciecza's 41 percent. The second half saw Lechia mount a comeback with two goals but Nieciecza managed to secure the victory. No red cards were shown during the contest. The result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations as the home team prevailed against the stronger opponent. Possession stats highlighted Lechia's control of the ball yet this did not translate into a win. The match demonstrated how early leads can influence the final outcome even when overall play suggests otherwise.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nieciecza secured a 3-2 victory over Lechia Gdańsk despite holding only 41 percent possession.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency metrics remained in line with the observed performance patterns throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: Expected goals data was not available to assess alignment with the final result.
  • Market alignment: The outcome showed no alignment with pre-match market expectations given the significant deviation recorded.
  • xG expectations: Without available xG figures, expectations could not be directly compared to the 3-2 scoreline.
  • Event impact: The halftime lead of 2-0 proved decisive as Nieciecza held on for the win after Lechia scored twice in the second half.
  • Red card distortion: No red cards were issued to either side, resulting in no distortion from dismissals.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

P. Gryckiewicz

Poland 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

M. Boniek

1st Assistant

Poland

B. Kaszyński

2nd Assistant

Poland

M. Mastaj

4th Official

Poland

League averages

Ekstraklasa Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 24.3
Yellow cards / match 3.82
Red cards / match 0.22
Penalties / match 0.23
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
VS
Lechia Gdańsk J. Carver
J. Carver
0.88
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arka Gdynia Rank: 56 W
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 L
Katowice Rank: 65 L
Zagłębie Lubin Rank: 62 W
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 61 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: 65 L
Widzew Lodz Rank: 60 L
Radomiak Radom Rank: 61 L
Raków Częstochowa Rank: 69 L
Piast Gliwice Rank: 60 D
Wisła Płock Rank: 56 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nieciecza
24.77%
Draw
22.23%
Away Lechia Gdańsk
53%

Movement

Changes since opening
Nieciecza
-69.95%
Draw
+17.14%
Lechia Gdańsk
+52.81%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
48.46
57.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdańsk
Power Score
48.46
57.67
League Position
18
16
Global Rank
672
554

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Lechia Gdańsk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nieciecza Lechia Gdańsk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lechia Gdańsk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
21.83
46.02
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.02
21.83
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Nieciecza -2.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Lechia Gdańsk +2.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdańsk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Nieciecza ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lechia Gdańsk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Nieciecza Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Nieciecza Lechia Gdańsk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdańsk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Nieciecza
vs
Lechia Gdańsk
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Nieciecza Lechia Gdańsk
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Nieciecza 0.18
Lechia Gdańsk 0.21
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Nieciecza Lechia Gdańsk
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Nieciecza 0.02
Lechia Gdańsk 0.08
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdańsk
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • LGD had peak pressure around 75'.
  • LGD started the game with stronger pressure.
Nieciecza Pressure LGD Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: LGD reached the top pressure at 75' (89.07).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nieciecza Nieciecza Home
11 matches
Lechia Gdańsk LGD Away
Match Record
3
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
3
Goals
10
Goals Scored
18
18
Goals Conceded
10
-8
Goal Difference
+8

Data last updated: 2026-05-24T00:02:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
L. Masoero Masi
Argentina
5 L. Masoero Masi
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
A. Putivtsev
Substitution
Ukraine
77 A. Putivtsev
M. Wolski
Poland
6 M. Wolski
R. Kurzawa
Poland
8 R. Kurzawa
S. Guerrero Romero
Spain
23 S. Guerrero Romero
M. Ambrosiewicz
Substitution
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
D. Hilbrycht
Substitution
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
K. Zapolnik
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik
J. Jiménez Núñez
Substitution
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez
Pitch
S. Weirauch
Poland
1 S. Weirauch
M. Vojtko
Substitution
Slovakia
27 M. Vojtko
M. Rodin
Croatia
80 M. Rodin
B. Pllana
Kosovo
4 B. Pllana
T. Wójtowicz
Substitution
Poland
33 T. Wójtowicz
T. Neugebauer
Poland
99 T. Neugebauer
R. Kapič
Bosnia and Herzegovina
10 R. Kapič
K. Sezonienko
Substitution
Poland
79 K. Sezonienko
A. Tsarenko
Substitution
Ukraine
17 A. Tsarenko
C. Mena Márquez
Colombia
11 C. Mena Márquez
T. Bobček
Slovakia
89 T. Bobček

General Information

Date & Time :
May 23, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadion Termaliki Bruk-Bet Nieciecza
Capacity :
4595
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Patryk Gryckiewicz
Marcin Boniek
Bartosz Kaszyński
Mateusz Mastaj

Statistics

Possession
Nieciecza
42%
LGD
58%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 6
7 Shots 22
39 Dangerous attacks 103
41 Possession 59
2 Corners 10
16 Free kicks 13
4 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Goal Kicks 6
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
11 Dribble Attempts 14
20 Throwins 27
5 Successful Dribbles 10
6 Goal Attempts 15
85 Ball Safe 85
2 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 3
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 4
83 Attacks 112

Possession

38 Successful Long Passes 24
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
70 Successful Passes Percentage 82
75 Long Passes 52
302 Passes 407
5 Key Passes 20
212 Successful Passes 334

Defensive

11 Tackles 11
15 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 2
51 Duels Won 51

Build-up

2 Accurate Crosses 12
9 Total Crosses 41

Discipline

14 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero Defender
77
Artem Putivtsev
Artem Putivtsev Defender
29
Gabriel Isik
Gabriel Isik
Defender65'
6
Maciej Wolski
Maciej Wolski Midfielder
8
Rafal Kurzawa
Rafal Kurzawa Midfielder
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek
Midfielder82'
23
Sergio Guerrero
Sergio Guerrero Midfielder
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
26
Wojciech Jakubik
Wojciech Jakubik
Midfielder73'
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov
Attacker82'
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker
Referee : Patryk Gryckiewicz

Starting XI ▼

1
Szymon Weirauch
Szymon Weirauch Goalkeeper
4
Bujar Pllana
Bujar Pllana Defender
27
Matus Vojtko
Matus Vojtko Defender
77
Dorian Sinkiewicz
Dorian Sinkiewicz
Attacker75'
33
Tomasz Wojtowicz
Tomasz Wojtowicz Defender
2
Bartlomiej Kludka
Bartlomiej Kludka
Defender46'
80
Matej Rodin
Matej Rodin Defender
10
Rifet Kapic
Rifet Kapic Midfielder
11
Camilo Mena
Camilo Mena Midfielder
17
Anton Tsarenko
Anton Tsarenko Midfielder
21
Michal Glogowski
Michal Glogowski
Attacker46'
79
Kacper Sezonienko
Kacper Sezonienko Midfielder
8
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Aleksandar Cirkovic
Midfielder46'
99
Tomasz Neugebauer
Tomasz Neugebauer Midfielder
89
Tomas Bobcek
Tomas Bobcek Attacker
2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Kamil Zapolnik
6th Yellowcard
90+7'
90+4'
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
Wojciech Jakubik
5th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Ivan Durdov → Jesús Jiménez
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Igor Strzalek → Damian Hilbrycht
8th Substitution
82'
75'
Event
Dorian Sinkiewicz → Matus Vojtko
6th Substitution
Event
Wojciech Jakubik → Maciej Ambrosiewicz
5th Substitution
73'
70'
Event
Tomas Bobcek
1st Missed Penalty
68'
Event
Matej Rodin
Penalty Confirmed
Event
Gabriel Isik → Artem Putivtsev
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Kamil Zapolnik
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
57'
50'
Event
Tomas Bobcek
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
46'
Event
Bartlomiej Kludka → Tomasz Wojtowicz
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Aleksandar Cirkovic → Kacper Sezonienko
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Michal Glogowski → Anton Tsarenko
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
2nd Yellowcard
45'
Event
Rafal Kurzawa
4th Yellowcard
45'
45'
Event
Rifet Kapic
3rd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Tomasz Neugebauer
1st Yellowcard
Event
Rafal Kurzawa
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
29'
Event
Artem Putivtsev
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
21'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kamil Zapolnik receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a right-footed shot and scores.
90
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Durdov takes a right-footed shot but misses.
88
Update Update
Bujar Pllana's header attempt goes wide.
87
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek attempts a header but misses the shot.
83
Attempt Attempt
Dorian Sinkiewicz takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
82
Substitution Substitution
Ivan Durdov is substituted for Jesus Jimenez.
82
Update Update
Igor Strzalek comes on for Damian Hilbrycht.
81
Attempt Attempt
Matej Rodin takes a right-footed shot but misses.
77
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Neugebauer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
75
Update Update
Dorian Sinkiewicz comes on for Matus Vojtko.
74
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Neugebauer takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Rifet Kapic's left-footed shot is blocked.
73
Update Update
Wojciech Jakubik is on, and Maciej Ambrosiewicz is off.
72
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a right-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Rifet Kapic's left-footed shot is blocked.
70
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek has his penalty saved.
68
Update Update
Penalty awarded after a VAR decision to Matej Rodin.
66
Attempt Attempt
Matej Rodin's right-footed shot is saved.
66
Attempt Attempt
Matej Rodin's right-footed shot is saved.
65
Update Update
Gabriel Isik is on, and Artem Putivtsev is off.
64
Attempt Attempt
Damian Hilbrycht takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
60
Attempt Attempt
Aleksandar Cirkovic takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Kamil Zapolnik scores with a right-footed shot.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Kamil Zapolnik scores, making it 3-1.
56
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek's right-footed shot is blocked.
52
Attempt Attempt
Michal Glogowski takes a right-footed shot but misses.
51
Attempt Attempt
Michal Glogowski attempts a header but misses the shot.
50
Attempt Attempt
Tomas Bobcek takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
47
Attempt Attempt
Shot by Aleksandar Cirkovic with his right foot is blocked.
46
Update Update
Michal Glogowski is on, and Anton Tsarenko is off.
46
Update Update
Bartlomiej Kludka comes on for Tomasz Wojtowicz.
46
Update Update
Aleksandar Cirkovic is on, and Kacper Sezonienko is off.
45
Attempt Attempt
Anton Tsarenko's header is saved.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rafal Kurzawa receives a yellow card.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Rifet Kapic receives a yellow card.
45
Attempt Attempt
Rifet Kapic's left-footed shot is blocked.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Rafal Kurzawa scores, making it 2-0.
29
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Kurzawa takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
28
Attempt Attempt
Rafal Kurzawa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
24
Attempt Attempt
Kacper Sezonienko takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
24
Attempt Attempt
Bujar Pllana attempts a header but misses the shot.
22
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Artem Putivtsev scores, making it 1-0.
21
Attempt Attempt
Artem Putivtsev takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
21
Attempt Attempt
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tomasz Neugebauer takes a right-footed shot but misses.

CONCLUSION

Final score detail: Nieciecza 3-2 Lechia Gdańsk. Structural assessment: Nieciecza exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdańsk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

About BestPreviews Methodology & FAQ More Match Reports

How We Build This Analysis

BestPreviews combines tactical context, lineup quality, xG trends, and form data across competitions. Read the full methodology and FAQ.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Ekstraklasa, Poland View all league clusters View methodology and FAQ

Author

Jesper GK

Jesper GK contributes football previews covering key fixtures, league context, team news, and matchday talking points.