Nice vs Metz Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Allianz Riviera Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Nice NCE
Versus
Metz MTZ
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In the 2025/2026 Ligue 1 regular season at Allianz Riviera, Nice welcomes struggling Metz in a crucial matchup between 16th-placed hosts and 18th-placed visitors. Nice enters as the clear stronger team, holding a commanding power score of 72.1 against Metz's 52.88, translating to a 19.2-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Recent form further tilts the scales, with Nice's 12.28 rating dwarfing Metz's meager 3.06, suggesting momentum lies firmly with the home side despite both teams' precarious league positions. Lacking detailed efficiency, transition, or set-piece metrics due to unavailable xG data, analysis hinges on these core disparities. Nice's home advantage at Allianz Riviera could prove decisive, potentially allowing them to dictate play and exploit Metz's weaknesses. Metz faces an uphill battle, needing a tactical masterclass to overturn the evident gaps in power and form. This encounter shapes up as a test of Nice's ability to convert superiority into points.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Nice possesses a 19.2-point power advantage over Metz, with scores of 72.1 to 52.88.
  • Form: Nice's form score stands at 12.28, significantly ahead of Metz's 3.06.
  • Squad: No specific squad updates or injury details provided for either team.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play metrics are not available for analysis.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable as xG information is absent for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables not available due to data limitations.
  • Market: Nice 69.7% (Δ+0.2%) | Draw 17.9% (Δ-0.4%) | Metz 12.4% (Δ+0.2%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nice C. Puel
C. Puel
VS
Metz B. Tavenot
B. Tavenot
0.67
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.24
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Auxerre Rank: 70 L
Lens Rank: 82 D
Olympique Marseille Rank: 80 D
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 D
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Strasbourg Rank: 77 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lorient Rank: 75 L
Monaco Rank: 79 L
Le Havre Rank: 67 D
Paris Rank: 70 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 79 L
Nantes Rank: 67 D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 3 - 5
5
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nice
69.7%
Draw
17.91%
Away Metz
12.38%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
72.1
52.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nice
Metz
Power Score
72.1
52.88
League Position
16
18
Global Rank
164
448

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nice — Opponent-weighted form score
Metz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nice Metz

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 18 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nice NCE Home
18 matches
Metz MTZ Away
Match Record
10
Wins
5
3
Draws
3
5
Losses
10
Goals
27
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
27
+11
Goal Difference
-11

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T01:08:23+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
Y. Diouf
80 Y. Diouf
K. Peprah Oppong
37 K. Peprah Oppong
A. Mendy
33 A. Mendy
A. Juma Bah
28 A. Juma Bah
J. Clauss
92 J. Clauss
S. Samed
99 S. Samed
M. Sanson
8 M. Sanson
H. Boudaoui
6 H. Boudaoui
A. Abdi
2 A. Abdi
S. Diop
10 S. Diop
M. Cho
25 M. Cho
Pitch
P. Sy
61 P. Sy
B. Sarr
70 B. Sarr
T. Yegbe
15 T. Yegbe
S. Sané
38 S. Sané
K. Kouao
39 K. Kouao
J. Gbamin
5 J. Gbamin
J. Deminguet
20 J. Deminguet
H. Tsitaishvili
7 H. Tsitaishvili
G. Hein
10 G. Hein
G. Abuashvili
9 G. Abuashvili
G. Kvilitaia
11 G. Kvilitaia

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Allianz Riviera
Capacity :
36178
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Jérémie Pignard
Aurélien Drouet
Brice Parinet Le Tellier
Eric Wattellier

Expected Lineup

Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

80
Yehvann Diouf
Yehvann Diouf Goalkeeper
6.99
2
Ali Abdi
Ali Abdi Midfielder
6.6
92
Jonathan Clauss
Jonathan Clauss Midfielder
7.12
25
Mohamed-Ali Cho
Mohamed-Ali Cho Attacker
6.8
10
Sofiane Diop
Sofiane Diop Attacker
6.96
33
Antoine Mendy
Antoine Mendy Centre Back
6.68
6
Hicham Boudaoui
Hicham Boudaoui Central Midfield
6.76
8
Morgan Sanson
Morgan Sanson Central Midfield
6.57
28
Juma Bah
Juma Bah Left Back
6.77
99
Salis Abdul Samed
Salis Abdul Samed Central Midfield
6.44
37
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Kojo Peprah Oppong Right Back
6.79
Referee : Jérémie Pignard

Starting XI ▼

61
Pape Sy
Pape Sy Goalkeeper
6.72
11
Giorgi Kvilitaia
Giorgi Kvilitaia Centre Forward
6.86
7
Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Giorgi Tsitaishvili Left Wing
6.76
10
Gauthier Hein
Gauthier Hein Attacking Midfield
7.16
38
Sadibou Sané
Sadibou Sané Right Back
6.8
9
Giorgi Abuashvili
Giorgi Abuashvili Right Wing
6.56
20
Jessy Deminguet
Jessy Deminguet Defensive Midfield
6.65
5
Jean-Philippe Gbamin
Jean-Philippe Gbamin Defensive Midfield
6.59
15
Terry Yegbe
Terry Yegbe Left Back
6.46
39
Koffi Kouao
Koffi Kouao Right Back
6.9
70
Bouna Sarr
Bouna Sarr Left Back
6.51

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Nice holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Nice a 19.2-point edge. External projection is Nice 68.3%, draw 19.5%, and Metz 12.1%. That projection profile aligns with the structural signals. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

Nice vs Metz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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