Newcastle United vs West Ham United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
St. James' Park Sun, 17 May - 4:30 PM
Premier League
Newcastle United NEW
3 Winner 1
West Ham United WHU
Full Time Sun, 17 May 4:30 PM
Round 37 Regular Season
William Osula - 65', 19'
Nick Woltemade - 15'
Goal
|
Goal
Taty Castellanos - 69'

CONTEXT

Newcastle United hosted West Ham United in a Premier League fixture that concluded with a 3-1 home victory. The match saw Newcastle establish a 2-0 lead by halftime through effective attacking transitions and set-piece execution. West Ham responded in the second half with a goal that reduced the deficit but could not mount a full comeback. Newcastle maintained 55 percent possession compared to West Ham's 45 percent. Expected goals stood at 1.57 for the home side and 1.41 for the visitors, reflecting a narrow underlying advantage. No red cards were issued during the contest. The final result aligned with the pre-match assessment of Newcastle as the stronger team.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: The observed deviation from expected patterns measured 2.6 percent and registered at a minimal level for Newcastle United.
  • Efficiency shift: Team efficiency remained in line with underlying performance metrics throughout the fixture.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome proved consistent with the expected goals distribution of 1.57 to 1.41.
  • Market alignment: The result showed alignment with pre-match indicators for the stronger side.
  • xG expectations: Newcastle United generated 1.57 expected goals while West Ham United recorded 1.41.
  • Event impact: The halftime score of 2-0 shaped the second-half adjustments and final 3-1 scoreline.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced no measurable distortion to the match structure or outcome.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

J. Gillett

Australia 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

L. Smith

4th Official

England

N. Davies

1st Assistant

England

S. Ledger

2nd Assistant

England

League averages

Premier League Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 18.63
Yellow cards / match 3.34
Red cards / match 0.09
Penalties / match 0.18
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
VS
West Ham United N. Simões Espírito Santo
N. Simões Espírito Santo
1.36
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.04
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: 88 D
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 W
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 90 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 L
Sunderland Rank: 82 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 98 L
Brentford Rank: 88 L
Everton Rank: 87 W
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 D
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: 79 W
Aston Villa Rank: 91 L
19
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
19 - 11 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Newcastle United
97.43%
Draw
2.38%
Away West Ham United
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
89.36
82.57
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Newcastle United
West Ham United
Power Score
89.36
82.57
League Position
11
18
Global Rank
14
45

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
West Ham United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Newcastle United West Ham United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

West Ham United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Newcastle United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy West Ham United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.00
39.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.44
32.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Newcastle United -0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
West Ham United +0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Newcastle United
West Ham United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Newcastle United
vs
West Ham United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Newcastle United West Ham United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Newcastle United West Ham United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Newcastle United
West Ham United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Newcastle United
vs
West Ham United
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Newcastle United West Ham United
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Newcastle United 0.29
West Ham United 0.27
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Newcastle United West Ham United
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Newcastle United 0.02
West Ham United 0.06
Newcastle United
West Ham United
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • WHU had peak pressure around 89'.
  • NEW started the game with stronger pressure.
NEW Pressure WHU Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: WHU reached the top pressure at 89' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 41 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Newcastle United NEW Home
41 matches
West Ham United WHU Away
Match Record
19
Wins
11
11
Draws
11
11
Losses
19
Goals
74
Goals Scored
57
57
Goals Conceded
74
+17
Goal Difference
-17

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:05:10+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
N. Pope
England
1 N. Pope
K. Trippier
Substitution
England
2 (C) K. Trippier
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
L. Hall
England
3 L. Hall
B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
Brazil
39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
S. Tonali
Substitution
Italy
8 S. Tonali
H. Barnes
Substitution
England
11 H. Barnes
N. Woltemade
Substitution
Germany
27 N. Woltemade
J. Ramsey
England
41 J. Ramsey
W. Osula
Substitution
Denmark
18 W. Osula
Pitch
M. Hermansen
Denmark
1 M. Hermansen
J. Todibo
Substitution
France
25 J. Todibo
K. Mavropanos
Greece
15 K. Mavropanos
A. Disasi
France
4 A. Disasi
E. Diouf
Senegal
12 E. Diouf
M. Espanha Fernandes
Portugal
18 M. Espanha Fernandes
T. Souček
Substitution
Czech Republic
28 T. Souček
A. Wan-Bissaka
Substitution
England
29 A. Wan-Bissaka
C. Summerville
Netherlands
7 C. Summerville
J. Bowen
England
20 (C) J. Bowen
C. Wilson
England
9 C. Wilson

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 37 · Regular Season
Stadium :
St. James' Park
Capacity :
52409
Attendance :
52206
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Lewis Smith
Jarred Gillett
Neil Davies
Scott Ledger

Statistics

Possession
NEW
53%
WHU
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 1
15 Shots 15
52 Dangerous attacks 55
55 Possession 45
9 Corners 1
12 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
10 Goal Kicks 11
6 Successful Dribbles 8
27 Throwins 20
13 Dribble Attempts 19
8 Successful Headers 15
3 Assists 1
77 Ball Safe 77
10 Goal Attempts 10
5 Substitutions 3
0 Hit Woodwork 1
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

94 Attacks 101
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

14 Key Passes 8
414 Successful Passes 340
503 Passes 410
82 Successful Passes Percentage 83
19 Successful Long Passes 20
49 Long Passes 52
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

24 Tackles 20
48 Duels Won 51
8 Interceptions 9
7 Saves 4

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 17
4 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

8 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

1
Nick Pope
Nick Pope Goalkeeper
8
2
Kieran Trippier
Kieran Trippier (C) Defender
6.41
20
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga
Attacker85'
6.44
3
Lewis Hall
Lewis Hall Defender
6.3
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
6.96
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
6.77
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Midfielder
6.82
28
Joe Willock
Joe Willock
Midfielder53'
7.33
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes Midfielder
7.31
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy
Midfielder75'
6.94
27
Nick Woltemade
Nick Woltemade Midfielder
7.15
33
Dan Burn
Dan Burn
Defender75'
6.63
39
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.62
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey Midfielder
7.9
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
2
8.55
9
Yoane Wissa
Yoane Wissa
Attacker85'
6.67
Referee : Jarred Gillett

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Hermansen
Mads Hermansen Goalkeeper
5.97
4
Axel Disasi
Axel Disasi Defender
6.49
15
Konstantinos Mavropanos
Konstantinos Mavropanos Defender
7.35
25
Jean-Clair Todibo
Jean-Clair Todibo Defender
6.02
11
Taty Castellanos
Taty Castellanos
Attacker26'
7.69
12
El Hadji Malick Diouf
El Hadji Malick Diouf Midfielder
6.82
18
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus Fernandes Midfielder
7.19
28
Tomáš Souček
Tomáš Souček Midfielder
6.58
55
Mohamadou Kanté
Mohamadou Kanté
Midfielder63'
6.32
29
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Aaron Wan-Bissaka Midfielder
6.52
19
Pablo
Pablo
Attacker63'
6.27
7
Crysencio Summerville
Crysencio Summerville Attacker
7.23
9
Callum Wilson
Callum Wilson Attacker
6.28
20
Jarrod Bowen
Jarrod Bowen (C) Attacker
6.55

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Anthony Elanga → Kieran Trippier
7th Substitution
85'
Event
Yoane Wissa → William Osula
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Lewis Hall
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
83'
80'
Event
Mohamadou Kanté
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jacob Murphy → Harvey Barnes
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Dan Burn → Nick Woltemade
5th Substitution
75'
69'
Event
Taty Castellanos
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
67'
Event
El Hadji Malick Diouf
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
William Osula
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
65'
63'
Event
Pablo  → Aaron Wan-Bissaka
4th Substitution
63'
Event
Mohamadou Kanté → Tomáš Souček
3rd Substitution
59'
Event
Tomáš Souček
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Joe Willock → Sandro Tonali
2nd Substitution
53'
1ST-HALF
26'
Event
Taty Castellanos → Jean-Clair Todibo
1st Substitution
Event
William Osula
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
19'
Event
Nick Woltemade
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Willock takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
90
Attempt Attempt
Anthony Elanga takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
88
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Hall takes a left-footed shot, but it is blocked.
85
Update Update
Anthony Elanga replaces Kieran Trippier.
85
Update Update
Yoane Wissa comes on for William Osula.
84
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
84
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a header, but it's saved.
83
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Hall receives a yellow card.
82
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez attempts a header but misses the shot.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Mohamadou Kante receives a yellow card.
79
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Murphy's right-footed shot is blocked.
79
Attempt Attempt
Jacob Murphy's right-footed shot is saved.
78
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
76
Attempt Attempt
Callum Wilson takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
75
Update Update
Dan Burn is on, and Nick Woltemade is off.
75
Update Update
Jacob Murphy replaces Harvey Barnes.
74
Attempt Attempt
Jarrod Bowen takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
73
Attempt Attempt
Konstantinos Mavropanos takes a left-footed shot but misses.
72
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimaraes Rodriguez Moura takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
69
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez scores to make it 3-1, assisted by Mads Hermansen.
67
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yellow card shown to El Hadji Malick Diouf.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! William Osula scores to make it 3-0, assisted by Joseph Willock.
65
Attempt Attempt
William Osula takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
63
Update Update
Pablo Felipe Pereira de Jesus comes on for Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
63
Update Update
Mohamadou Kante comes on for Tomas Soucek.
62
Attempt Attempt
Crysencio Summerville takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
59
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Tomas Soucek receives a yellow card.
57
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Fernandes takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Lewis Hall takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
57
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
57
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimaraes Rodriguez Moura takes a right-footed shot but misses.
53
Update Update
Joseph Willock comes on for Sandro Tonali.
45
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes takes a right-footed shot, but it is saved.
34
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
El Hadji Malick Diouf takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
26
Update Update
Valentin Mariano Castellanos Gimenez comes on for Jean-Clair Todibo.
23
Attempt Attempt
Mateus Fernandes takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
19
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! William Osula scores, making it 2-0, assisted by Jacob Ramsey.
19
Attempt Attempt
William Osula takes a left-footed shot and scores.
15
Attempt Attempt
Nick Woltemade takes a shot with his right foot and scores.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Nick Woltemade scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Harvey Barnes.
12
Update Update
Sven Botman's header is blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
William Osula takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Jarred Gillett.

CONCLUSION

Newcastle United secured a 3-1 win over West Ham United with a controlled performance that featured an early two-goal advantage. The underlying metrics indicated a modest edge in chance creation that translated into the final margin. Possession favored the home side at 55 percent yet both teams operated within expected efficiency ranges. The absence of dismissals allowed uninterrupted tactical execution from both benches. Second-half responses from West Ham narrowed the gap without altering the overall trajectory. This result reinforced Newcastle's position as the stronger side on the day while highlighting areas for refinement in chance conversion. The data profile suggests a match decided by incremental advantages rather than singular moments.

Newcastle United vs West Ham United preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Alf Indseth

Alf Indseth writes football-focused analysis that looks beyond match results to explore form, value, and market context.