Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
St. James' Park Sat, 2 May - 2:00 PM
Premier League
Newcastle United NEW
3 Winner 1
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA
Full Time Sat, 2 May 2:00 PM
Round 35 Regular Season
Harvey Barnes - 90+5'
Dan Burn - 24'
William Osula - 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Jack Hinshelwood - 61'

CONTEXT

Newcastle United claimed a 3-1 home win against Brighton & Hove Albion, overcoming stark possession disparities of 33% to their opponents' 67%. The hosts established dominance early, leading 2-0 at halftime through sharp finishing, before extending the advantage in the second half while restricting Brighton to a single response. Identified pre-match as the stronger side, Newcastle's victory highlighted their proficiency in transition and set-piece execution amid limited control. The outcome registered a minimal structural deviation of 4.8%, with efficiency holding steady in line with projections. Absent red cards or notable disruptions, the game proceeded without major distortions, allowing Newcastle's quality to prevail in a controlled manner. This result reinforces their tactical resilience against possession-heavy foes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Result exhibited minimal structural deviation of 4.8% in favor of Newcastle United.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift remained in line with expectations throughout the match.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment unassessable due to unavailable expected goals data.
  • Market alignment: Outcome fully aligned with pre-match market expectations.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated owing to null data.
  • Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered match dynamics.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards produced zero distortion in the final score.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

C. Kavanagh

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

I. Hussin

2nd Assistant

R. Madley

4th Official

D. Cook

1st Assistant

Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
VS
Brighton & Hove Albion F. Hürzeler
F. Hürzeler
1.2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.46
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: 97 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 88 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 86 L
Sunderland Rank: 81 L
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Chelsea Rank: 89 W
Tottenham Hotspur Rank: 82 D
Burnley Rank: 79 W
Liverpool Rank: 93 W
Sunderland Rank: 81 W
Arsenal Rank: 98 L
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 8 - 10
10

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Newcastle United
95.23%
Draw
4.58%
Away Brighton & Hove Albion
0.19%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.92
73.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
Power Score
88.92
73.21
League Position
13
7
Global Rank
17
13

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Brighton & Hove Albion — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Newcastle United Brighton & Hove Albion

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brighton & Hove Albion

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Newcastle United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brighton & Hove Albion
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.64
25.07
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.07
43.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Newcastle United +2.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Brighton & Hove Albion -2.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Newcastle United ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brighton & Hove Albion
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Newcastle United Brighton & Hove Albion
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Newcastle United Brighton & Hove Albion
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Newcastle United
vs
Brighton & Hove Albion
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Newcastle United Brighton & Hove Albion
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Newcastle United 0.46
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Newcastle United Brighton & Hove Albion
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Newcastle United 0.01
Brighton & Hove Albion 0.11
Newcastle United
Brighton & Hove Albion
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • BHA had peak pressure around 95'.
  • BHA started the game with stronger pressure.
NEW Pressure BHA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: BHA reached the top pressure at 95' (95.39).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Newcastle United NEW Home
22 matches
Brighton & Hove Albion BHA Away
Match Record
4
Wins
10
8
Draws
8
10
Losses
4
Goals
17
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
17
-9
Goal Difference
+9

Data last updated: 2026-05-03T00:03:59+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
N. Pope
England
1 N. Pope
L. Miley
England
67 L. Miley
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
D. Burn
England
33 D. Burn
B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
Substitution
Brazil
39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
S. Tonali
Italy
8 S. Tonali
J. Murphy
Substitution
England
23 J. Murphy
J. Willock
Substitution
England
28 J. Willock
J. Apolinário de Lira
Brazil
7 J. Apolinário de Lira
W. Osula
Substitution
Denmark
18 W. Osula
Pitch
B. Verbruggen
Netherlands
1 B. Verbruggen
F. Kadıoğlu
Türkiye
24 F. Kadıoğlu
O. Boscagli
France
21 O. Boscagli
J. van Hecke
Netherlands
6 J. van Hecke
M. Wieffer
Substitution
Netherlands
27 M. Wieffer
C. Noom Quomah
Substitution
Cameroon
17 C. Noom Quomah
P. Groß
Germany
30 P. Groß
K. Mitoma
Japan
22 K. Mitoma
J. Hinshelwood
Substitution
England
13 J. Hinshelwood
Y. Minteh
Gambia
11 Y. Minteh
D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
Substitution
England
18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck

General Information

Date & Time :
May 02, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 35 · Regular Season
Stadium :
St. James' Park
Capacity :
52409
Attendance :
52099
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Chris Kavanagh
Ian Hussin
Robert Madley
Daniel Cook

Statistics

Possession
NEW
39%
BHA
61%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 4
6 Shots 6
28 Dangerous attacks 76
33 Possession 67
2 Corners 10
13 Free kicks 11
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 5
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
4 Substitutions 5
22 Successful Headers 10
13 Throwins 22
2 Assists 1
0 Hit Woodwork 2
14 Dribble Attempts 11
14 Goal Kicks 9
12 Goal Attempts 8
67 Ball Safe 70
1 Injuries 1

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 3
59 Attacks 110

Possession

19 Successful Long Passes 20
69 Successful Passes Percentage 83
8 Key Passes 10
229 Passes 473
157 Successful Passes 394
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
48 Long Passes 61

Defensive

11 Tackles 10
6 Interceptions 3
3 Saves 4
53 Duels Won 33

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 38
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

10 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Nick Pope
Nick Pope Goalkeeper
6.81
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
6.92
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
6.97
33
Dan Burn
Dan Burn Defender
6.67
67
Lewis Miley
Lewis Miley Defender
6.99
7
Joelinton
Joelinton Midfielder
6.83
8
Sandro Tonali
Sandro Tonali Midfielder
6.94
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy Midfielder
6.76
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes
Midfielder68'
6.7
28
Joe Willock
Joe Willock Midfielder
6.65
3
Lewis Hall
Lewis Hall
Defender68'
6.9
39
Bruno Guimarães
Bruno Guimarães Midfielder
7.32
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey
Midfielder90+1'
6.65
18
William Osula
William Osula Attacker
6.67
9
Yoane Wissa
Yoane Wissa
Attacker68'
6.52
Referee : Chris Kavanagh

Starting XI ▼

1
Bart Verbruggen
Bart Verbruggen Goalkeeper
6.87
6
Jan Paul van Hecke
Jan Paul van Hecke Defender
7.09
21
Olivier Boscagli
Olivier Boscagli Defender
6.92
24
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Ferdi Kadıoğlu Defender
6.86
27
Mats Wieffer
Mats Wieffer Defender
6.91
34
Joël Veltman
Joël Veltman
Defender18'
6.78
11
Yankuba Minteh
Yankuba Minteh Midfielder
6.92
13
Jack Hinshelwood
Jack Hinshelwood Midfielder
6.7
5
Lewis Dunk
Lewis Dunk
Defender88'
6.91
17
Carlos Baleba
Carlos Baleba Midfielder
6.6
19
Charalampos Kostoulas
Charalampos Kostoulas
Attacker80'
6.73
22
Kaoru Mitoma
Kaoru Mitoma Midfielder
6.77
30
Pascal Groß
Pascal Groß Midfielder
7.26
18
Danny Welbeck
Danny Welbeck Attacker
6.82
10
Georginio Rutter
Georginio Rutter
Attacker80'
6.81

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Harvey Barnes
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
90+5'
90+2'
Event
Jan Paul van Hecke
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
Event
Jacob Ramsey → Bruno Guimarães
9th Substitution
90+1'
88'
Event
Lewis Dunk → Jack Hinshelwood
8th Substitution
Event
Yoane Wissa
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
87'
86'
Event
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Sandro Tonali
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
85'
81'
Event
Maxim De Cuyper → Joël Veltman
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Charalampos Kostoulas → Carlos Baleba
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Georginio Rutter → Danny Welbeck
6th Substitution
Event
Harvey Barnes → Jacob Murphy
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Lewis Hall → Joe Willock
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Yoane Wissa → William Osula
4th Substitution
68'
61'
Event
Jack Hinshelwood
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Dan Burn
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
53'
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Kaoru Mitoma
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Dan Burn
Header / 2nd Goal
24'
22'
Event
Joël Veltman
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
18'
Event
Joël Veltman → Mats Wieffer
1st Substitution
Event
William Osula
Header / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Yoane Wissa takes a right-footed shot but misses.
90
Update Update
Jacob Ramsey comes on for Bruno Guimaraes Rodriguez Moura.
90
Attempt Attempt
Joelinton Cassio Apolinario de Lira takes a left-footed shot but misses.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jan Paul Van Hecke receives a yellow card.
90
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes scores with a left-footed shot.
90
Attempt Attempt
Harvey Barnes scores with a left-footed shot.
89
Attempt Attempt
Yankuba Minteh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
88
Substitution Substitution
Lewis Dunk is substituted off for Jack Hinshelwood.
87
Attempt Attempt
Jack Hinshelwood's header is saved.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Yoane Wissa receives a yellow card.
86
Attempt Attempt
Pascal Gross takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
86
Attempt Attempt
Charalampos Kostoulas takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
85
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Sandro Tonali receives a yellow card.
81
Update Update
Maxim de Cuyper replaces Joel Veltman.
80
Update Update
Charalampos Kostoulas replaces Carlos Baleba.
80
Update Update
Georginio Rutter replaces Danny Welbeck.
68
Update Update
Yoane Wissa is on, and William Osula is off.
68
Update Update
Harvey Barnes comes on for Jacob Murphy.
68
Update Update
Lewis Hall comes on for Joseph Willock.
61
Attempt Attempt
Jack Hinshelwood takes a shot with his left foot and scores.
58
Attempt Attempt
Yankuba Minteh takes a left-footed shot but misses.
56
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Willock takes a right-footed shot but misses.
55
Attempt Attempt
Jack Hinshelwood attempts a header but misses the shot.
54
Attempt Attempt
Kaoru Mitoma's left-footed shot is blocked.
53
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Dan Burn receives a yellow card.
48
Attempt Attempt
Bruno Guimaraes Rodriguez Moura takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
William Osula takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Baleba takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
43
Attempt Attempt
Danny Welbeck takes a right-footed shot but misses.
39
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kaoru Mitoma receives a yellow card.
38
Attempt Attempt
William Osula takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
37
Update Update
Danny Welbeck's header goes wide.
31
Attempt Attempt
Malick Thiaw takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
31
Attempt Attempt
Sven Botman takes a right-footed shot but misses.
29
Attempt Attempt
Joseph Willock takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
24
Attempt Attempt
Dan Burn takes a shot with his head and scores.
22
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Joel Veltman receives a yellow card.
18
Update Update
Joel Veltman replaces Mats Wieffer.
12
Update Update
William Osula scores with a header.
10
Attempt Attempt
William Osula takes a left-footed shot but misses.
9
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Baleba takes a left-footed shot that hits the post.
2
Attempt Attempt
Jack Hinshelwood takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
1
Update Update
Kick-off! The referee is Chris Kavanagh.

CONCLUSION

Newcastle United's 3-1 triumph over Brighton & Hove Albion exemplified efficiency over possession, converting limited opportunities into a decisive win despite 33% ball share. The 2-0 halftime buffer proved pivotal, enabling second-half management without concessions beyond one goal. Minimal deviation and market alignment affirm the result's predictability for the stronger home side. Lacking xG metrics or disruptive incidents like red cards, the performance stands as a testament to clinical execution and defensive solidity. This outcome bolsters Newcastle's credentials in handling superior possession teams through superior conversion rates.

Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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