NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Goffertstadion Sun, 17 May - 12:30 PM
Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen NEC
2 Winner 1
Go Ahead Eagles GAE
Full Time Sun, 17 May 12:30 PM
Round 34 Regular Season
Noé Lebreton - 27', 12'
Goal
|
Goal
Søren Tengstedt - 55'

CONTEXT

NEC Nijmegen secured a 2-1 victory over Go Ahead Eagles in a match that saw the home side establish a commanding 2-0 lead by halftime. Despite the visitors pulling one back in the second period, NEC maintained control with 58 percent possession and generated a substantial 4.22 expected goals against just 0.55 for their opponents. The stronger team lived up to its billing as the winner, with the outcome fully consistent with underlying metrics and a minimal 3.9 percent deviation from pre-match projections. No red cards were shown to either side, allowing the game to unfold without disciplinary interruptions. The result highlighted NEC's dominance in creating chances while Go Ahead Eagles struggled to match the intensity or efficiency required to challenge effectively.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Final score: NEC Nijmegen 2-1 Go Ahead Eagles. NEC Nijmegen showed a minimal deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: The efficiency shift stayed in line with overall performance expectations for both teams.
  • xG alignment: The match outcome aligned with xG metrics showing a 3.67 differential favoring the home side.
  • Market alignment: The final result remained consistent with market alignment indicators throughout.
  • xG expectations: NEC Nijmegen surpassed xG expectations with 4.22 against 0.55 for Go Ahead Eagles.
  • Event impact: The two first-half goals created a decisive event impact that shaped the remainder of play.
  • Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant red card distortion exerted no influence on proceedings.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

S. van der Eijk

Netherlands 25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

P. Inia

1st Assistant

Netherlands

S. de Groot

2nd Assistant

Netherlands

J. Kuipers

4th Official

Netherlands

League averages

Eredivisie Based on last 100 matches

Fouls / match 20.58
Yellow cards / match 2.67
Red cards / match 0.12
Penalties / match 0.12
NEC Nijmegen D. Schreuder
D. Schreuder
VS
Go Ahead Eagles M. Boel
M. Boel
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.05
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Groningen Rank: 66 L
Telstar Rank: 62 D
FC Twente Rank: 75 D
Feyenoord Rank: 76 D
Excelsior Rank: 62 W
SC Heerenveen Rank: 69 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
PSV Rank: 86 L
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: 65 D
AZ Rank: 75 D
FC Groningen Rank: 67 D
PEC Zwolle Rank: 62 W
FC Utrecht Rank: 72 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 6 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home NEC Nijmegen
96.11%
Draw
3.7%
Away Go Ahead Eagles
0.19%

Movement

Changes since opening
NEC Nijmegen
+0.88%
Draw
-0.88%
Go Ahead Eagles
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
73.51
65.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
NEC Nijmegen
Go Ahead Eagles
Power Score
73.51
65.68
League Position
3
12
Global Rank
138
309

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
NEC Nijmegen — Opponent-weighted form score
Go Ahead Eagles — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) NEC Nijmegen Go Ahead Eagles

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

NEC Nijmegen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Go Ahead Eagles

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

NEC Nijmegen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Go Ahead Eagles
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
71.90
10.12
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
10.12
71.90
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
NEC Nijmegen +5.95 Efficiency Index
vs
Go Ahead Eagles -5.95 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
NEC Nijmegen
Go Ahead Eagles
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

NEC Nijmegen
vs
Go Ahead Eagles
Created Set-piece attacking threat
NEC Nijmegen Go Ahead Eagles
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
NEC Nijmegen Go Ahead Eagles
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
NEC Nijmegen
Go Ahead Eagles
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
NEC Nijmegen
vs
Go Ahead Eagles
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
NEC Nijmegen Go Ahead Eagles
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
NEC Nijmegen 0.39
Go Ahead Eagles 0.12
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
NEC Nijmegen Go Ahead Eagles
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
NEC Nijmegen 0.04
Go Ahead Eagles 0.02
NEC Nijmegen
Go Ahead Eagles
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • NEC had peak pressure around 31'.
  • NEC started the game with stronger pressure.
NEC Pressure GAE Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: NEC reached the top pressure at 31' (100.00).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 14 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

NEC Nijmegen NEC Home
14 matches
Go Ahead Eagles GAE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
6
6
Draws
6
6
Losses
2
Goals
20
Goals Scored
27
27
Goals Conceded
20
-7
Goal Difference
+7

Data last updated: 2026-05-18T09:01:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
G. Crettaz
Argentina
1 G. Crettaz
B. Pereira
France
2 B. Pereira
P. Sandler
Substitution
Netherlands
3 P. Sandler
D. Fonville
Netherlands
24 D. Fonville
S. Ouaissa
Netherlands
25 S. Ouaissa
K. Sano
Japan
23 K. Sano
D. Nejašmić
Croatia
6 D. Nejašmić
B. Onal
Substitution
Netherlands
11 B. Onal
T. Chery
Substitution
Suriname
10 (C) T. Chery
N. Lebreton
France
20 N. Lebreton
B. Linssen
Substitution
Netherlands
30 B. Linssen
Pitch
J. De Busser
Belgium
22 J. De Busser
E. Waayers
Substitution
Netherlands
20 E. Waayers
J. Kramer
Netherlands
4 (C) J. Kramer
J. Dirksen
Substitution
Netherlands
26 J. Dirksen
A. Sampsted
Substitution
Iceland
2 A. Sampsted
J. Breum
Denmark
7 J. Breum
M. Meulensteen
Netherlands
21 M. Meulensteen
V. Edvardsen
Sweden
16 V. Edvardsen
M. Suray
Belgium
17 M. Suray
S. Tengstedt
Substitution
Denmark
10 S. Tengstedt
S. Sigurdarson
Substitution
Iceland
9 S. Sigurdarson

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Goffertstadion
Capacity :
12500
Attendance :
12650
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Sander van der Eijk
Patrick Inia
Stefan de Groot
Joshua Kuipers

Statistics

Possession
NEC
58%
GAE
42%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 1
94 Dangerous attacks 25
58 Possession 42
13 Corners 4
8 Free kicks 12
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

14 Successful Dribbles 13
21 Throwins 22
21 Dribble Attempts 19
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 68
15 Successful Headers 20
43 Ball Safe 61
22 Goal Attempts 1
1 Assists 1
4 Substitutions 5
5 Goal Kicks 12
1 Injuries 1
3 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

122 Attacks 67
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

82 Successful Passes Percentage 76
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
328 Successful Passes 229
401 Passes 303
22 Key Passes 3
48 Long Passes 54
22 Successful Long Passes 26

Defensive

1 Saves 10
16 Tackles 15
53 Duels Won 58
4 Interceptions 9

Build-up

34 Total Crosses 13
9 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

12 Fouls 8

Lineup

Referee : Sander van der Eijk

Starting XI ▼

1
Gonzalo Crettaz
Gonzalo Crettaz Goalkeeper
6.39
2
Brayann Pereira
Brayann Pereira Defender
7
3
Philippe Sandler
Philippe Sandler Defender
6.47
71
Dirk Proper
Dirk Proper
Midfielder85'
6.31
24
Deveron Fonville
Deveron Fonville Defender
6.81
6
Darko Nejasmic
Darko Nejasmic Midfielder
6.86
11
Başar Önal
Başar Önal Midfielder
8.07
18
Koki Ogawa
Koki Ogawa
Attacker71'
6.47
23
Kodai Sano
Kodai Sano Midfielder
7
25
Sami Ouaissa
Sami Ouaissa Midfielder
7.58
10
Tjaronn Chery
Tjaronn Chery (C) Attacker
8.35
17
Bram Nuytinck
Bram Nuytinck
Defender85'
6.44
20
Noé Lebreton
Noé Lebreton Attacker
2
9.57
30
Bryan Linssen
Bryan Linssen Attacker
6.78
9
Danilo
Danilo
Attacker71'
6.58
Referee : Sander van der Eijk

Starting XI ▼

22
Jari De Busser
Jari De Busser Goalkeeper
8.95
2
Alfons Sampsted
Alfons Sampsted Defender
6.46
23
Thibo Baeten
Thibo Baeten
Attacker70'
6.55
4
Joris Kramer
Joris Kramer (C) Defender
7.33
20
Eus Waayers
Eus Waayers Defender
6.25
25
Giovanni van Zwam
Giovanni van Zwam
Defender22'
6.72
26
Julius Dirksen
Julius Dirksen Defender
7.36
18
Richonell Margaret
Richonell Margaret
Attacker81'
6.39
7
Jakob Breum
Jakob Breum Midfielder
6.43
10
Søren Tengstedt
Søren Tengstedt Midfielder
7.44
11
Oskar Sivertsen
Oskar Sivertsen
Attacker70'
6.67
16
Victor Edvardsen
Victor Edvardsen Midfielder
6.81
17
Mathis Suray
Mathis Suray Midfielder
6.34
21
Melle Meulensteen
Melle Meulensteen Midfielder
6.68
9
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson Attacker
6.67
8
Evert Linthorst
Evert Linthorst
Midfielder46'
6.78

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Dirk Proper → Philippe Sandler
9th Substitution
85'
Event
Bram Nuytinck → Tjaronn Chery 
8th Substitution
85'
81'
Event
Richonell Margaret → Julius Dirksen
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Julius Dirksen
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Danilo → Bryan Linssen
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Koki Ogawa → Başar Önal 
6th Substitution
71'
70'
Event
Thibo Baeten → Alfons Sampsted
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Oskar Sivertsen → Søren Tengstedt
4th Substitution
55'
Event
Søren Tengstedt
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Darko Nejasmic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
50'
48'
Event
Victor Edvardsen
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
46'
Event
Evert Linthorst → Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Noé Lebreton
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
27'
22'
Event
Giovanni van Zwam → Eus Waayers
1st Substitution
Event
Noé Lebreton
Header / 1st Goal
12'

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a right-footed shot but misses.
85
Update Update
Bram Nuytinck comes on for Tjaronn Chery.
85
Update Update
Bram Nuytinck replaces Tjaronn Chery.
85
Update Update
Dirk Proper comes on for Philippe Sandler.
81
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa's left-footed shot is blocked.
77
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Julius Dirksen receives a yellow card.
76
Attempt Attempt
Darko Nejasmic takes a right-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot but misses.
74
Attempt Attempt
Danilo Pereira da Silva takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
72
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
71
Update Update
Thibo Baeten comes on for Alfons Sampsted.
71
Substitution Substitution
Danilo Pereira da Silva is substituted for Bryan Linssen.
71
Update Update
Koki Ogawa comes on for Basar Onal.
70
Update Update
Oskar Siira Sivertsen is on, and Soren Tengstedt is off.
69
Attempt Attempt
Basar Onal takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
66
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa attempts a header but misses the shot.
65
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
65
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
64
Update Update
Bryan Linssen's header is blocked.
63
Update Update
Bryan Linssen's header is blocked.
62
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
61
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
55
Attempt Attempt
Soren Tengstedt scores with a left-footed shot.
51
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Darko Nejasmic receives a yellow card.
49
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
49
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
48
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Victor Edvardsen receives a yellow card.
47
Update Update
Evert Linthorst is on, and Stefan Ingi Sigurdarson is off.
46
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a right-footed shot, but it's saved.
46
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Kodai Sano takes a right-footed shot but misses.
45
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery's left-footed shot is blocked.
45
Attempt Attempt
Basar Onal's right-footed shot is blocked.
41
Attempt Attempt
Kodai Sano takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
35
Attempt Attempt
Victor Edvardsen takes a right-footed shot, but it is blocked.
32
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa's header is saved.
29
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a left-footed shot, but it is saved.
28
Attempt Attempt
Deveron Fonville takes a left-footed shot, but it's blocked.
27
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Noe Lebreton scores, making it 2-0.
27
Attempt Attempt
Noe Lebreton takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
27
Attempt Attempt
Noe Lebreton scores with a left-footed shot.
24
Attempt Attempt
Basar Onal takes a left-footed shot but misses.
22
Update Update
Giovanni Van Zwam comes on for Eus Waayers.
22
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen takes a right-footed shot that hits the post.
17
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery has a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
16
Attempt Attempt
Melle Meulensteen's header is saved.
12
Update Update
Noe Lebreton scores with a header.
12
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Noe Lebreton scores to make it 1-0, assisted by Basar Onal.
9
Attempt Attempt
Basar Onal's right-footed shot is blocked.
7
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery takes a right-footed shot, but it's blocked.
5
Attempt Attempt
Sami Ouaissa takes a left-footed shot, but it's saved.
5
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery misses with a left-footed shot.
5
Attempt Attempt
Bryan Linssen's right-footed shot is blocked.
2
Attempt Attempt
Tjaronn Chery misses with a left-footed shot.

CONCLUSION

NEC Nijmegen's 2-1 win over Go Ahead Eagles reflected clear superiority in both creation and control from start to finish. Leading 2-0 at the interval allowed the hosts to manage the game intelligently even after conceding late. Their 4.22 xG underscored relentless pressure that the visitors could not match with only 0.55 in response. Possession dominance at 58 percent further illustrated the structural edge maintained across ninety minutes. With no cards shown the contest avoided any artificial shifts in momentum or personnel. The minimal deviation from expectations confirmed that the stronger side delivered precisely as anticipated on the day. Overall this performance reinforced NEC's position while exposing areas for Go Ahead Eagles to address in future outings.

NEC Nijmegen vs Go Ahead Eagles preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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Daniels Zorge covers football fixtures with a focus on tactical matchups, playing styles, and key details that shape each game.