Napoli vs Lecce Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Sat, 14 Mar - 5:00 PM
Serie A
Napoli NAP
2 Winner 1
Lecce LEC
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:00 PM
Matteo Politano  - 67'
Rasmus Højlund - 46'
Goal
|
Goal
Jamil Siebert - 3'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Napoli 2–1 Lecce. The result saw Napoli take the points. Napoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 70%–30%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Napoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

R. Abisso

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

D. Imperiale

1st Assistant

M. Ceccon

2nd Assistant

S. Galipò

4th Official

Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
VS
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
1.89
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sassuolo Rank: 73 W
Parma Rank: 72 D
Inter Rank: 92 D
Hellas Verona Rank: 65 D
Lazio Rank: 80 W
Cremonese Rank: 68 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Inter Rank: 92 L
Cagliari Rank: 71 W
Udinese Rank: 72 W
Torino Rank: 73 L
Lazio Rank: 80 D
AC Milan Rank: 87 L
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 4 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Napoli
67.7%
Draw
21.66%
Away Lecce
10.65%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
85.76
68.37
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Napoli
Lecce
Power Score
85.76
68.37
League Position
3
16
Global Rank
27
209

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Napoli Lecce

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Napoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Lecce

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Napoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Lecce
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
20.79
46.17
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
46.17
20.79
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Napoli -2.72 Efficiency Index
vs
Lecce +2.72 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Napoli
Lecce
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Napoli
vs
Lecce
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Napoli Lecce
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Napoli Lecce
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Napoli
Lecce
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Napoli NAP Home
7 matches
Lecce LEC Away
Match Record
5
Wins
0
2
Draws
2
0
Losses
5
Goals
10
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
10
+8
Goal Difference
-8

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:23:18+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Meret
Italy
1 A. Meret
S. Beukema
Netherlands
31 S. Beukema
A. Buongiorno
Italy
4 A. Buongiorno
M. Olivera Miramontes
Uruguay
17 M. Olivera Miramontes
M. Politano
Substitution
Italy
21 (C) M. Politano
A. Zambo Anguissa
Substitution
Cameroon
99 A. Zambo Anguissa
B. Gilmour
Scotland
6 B. Gilmour
L. Spinazzola
Substitution
Italy
37 L. Spinazzola
E. Elmas
Substitution
Macedonia
20 E. Elmas
A. de Almeida Santos
Substitution
Brazil
27 A. de Almeida Santos
R. Højlund
Denmark
19 R. Højlund
Pitch
W. Falcone
Italy
30 (C) W. Falcone
A. Gallo
Substitution
Italy
25 A. Gallo
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
J. Siebert
Germany
5 J. Siebert
D. Melo Veiga
Portugal
17 D. Melo Veiga
O. Ngom
Substitution
France
79 O. Ngom
Y. Ramadani
Albania
20 Y. Ramadani
L. Banda
Zambia
19 L. Banda
L. Coulibaly
Substitution
Mali
29 L. Coulibaly
S. Pierotti
Substitution
Argentina
50 S. Pierotti
N. Štulić
Substitution
Serbia
9 N. Štulić

General Information

Date & Time :
Mar 14, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadium :
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Capacity :
54726
Attendance :
50000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Rosario Abisso
Davide Imperiale
Marco Ceccon
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
NAP
63%
LEC
37%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 4
51 Dangerous attacks 37
70 Possession 30
7 Corners 7
7 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

70 Ball Safe 62
0 Injuries 3
10 Goal Attempts 8
15 Successful Headers 15
18 Dribble Attempts 12
1 Assists 1
24 Throwins 23
5 Substitutions 5
6 Successful Dribbles 7
9 Goal Kicks 11
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 58

Attacking

99 Attacks 82
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

31 Long Passes 45
88 Successful Passes Percentage 75
19 Successful Long Passes 17
9 Key Passes 10
528 Successful Passes 185
601 Passes 246
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 38

Defensive

1 Saves 2
48 Duels Won 52
18 Tackles 20
7 Interceptions 5

Build-up

18 Total Crosses 22
3 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

11 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

1
Alex Meret
Alex Meret Goalkeeper
6.72
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender
6.87
17
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera Defender
7.13
31
Sam Beukema
Sam Beukema Defender
6.77
6
Billy Gilmour
Billy Gilmour Midfielder
7.14
21
Matteo Politano
Matteo Politano (C) Midfielder
8.49
3
Miguel Gutiérrez
Miguel Gutiérrez
Defender72'
6.77
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
Leonardo Spinazzola Midfielder
6.48
30
Pasquale Mazzocchi
Pasquale Mazzocchi
Defender72'
6.04
99
Frank Anguissa
Frank Anguissa Midfielder
6.47
11
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne
Midfielder46'
6.53
19
Rasmus Højlund
Rasmus Højlund Attacker
7.2
20
Eljif Elmas
Eljif Elmas Attacker
6.8
8
Scott McTominay
Scott McTominay
Midfielder46'
6.6
27
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos Attacker
6.97
23
Giovane
Giovane
Attacker85'
6.6
Referee : Rosario Abisso

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone (C) Goalkeeper
6.54
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Defender
7.22
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Defender
6.8
25
Antonino Gallo
Antonino Gallo Defender
7.21
3
Corrie Ndaba
Corrie Ndaba
Defender79'
6.53
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Defender
6.54
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Midfielder
6.54
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Midfielder
6.73
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Midfielder
6.57
16
Omri Gandelman
Omri Gandelman
Midfielder46'
6.56
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Midfielder
6.95
11
Konan N’Dri
Konan N’Dri
Attacker79'
6.5
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Midfielder
6.47
8
Sadik Fofana
Sadik Fofana
Midfielder85'
6.5
9
Nikola Stulic
Nikola Stulic Attacker
6.59
99
Walid Cheddira
Walid Cheddira
Attacker59'
6.57

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Giovane → Alisson Santos
10th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Sadik Fofana → Oumar Ngom
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Corrie Ndaba → Antonino Gallo
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Konan N’Dri → Santiago Pierotti
8th Substitution
Event
Miguel Gutiérrez → Matteo Politano 
5th Substitution
72'
Event
Pasquale Mazzocchi  → Leonardo Spinazzola
6th Substitution
72'
Event
Matteo Politano 
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
67'
59'
Event
Walid Cheddira → Nikola Stulic
4th Substitution
Event
Scott McTominay → Eljif Elmas
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Rasmus Højlund
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
Event
Kevin De Bruyne  → Frank Anguissa 
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Omri Gandelman → Lassana Coulibaly
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
19'
Event
Jamil Siebert
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
3'
Event
Jamil Siebert
Header / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Napoli defeating Lecce 2-1.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Substitution Substitution
Lameck Banda had to leave the game due to injury after Lecce had already exhausted all their substitutions.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after Danilo Veiga allowed the ball to go out.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be five minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Konan N'Dri from Lecce committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli commits a handball.
87
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Lameck Banda from Lecce.
86
Update Update
Billy Gilmour committed a foul against Napoli.
86
Update Update
Ylber Ramadani from Lecce has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Giovane replaces Alisson Santos.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Sadik Fofana comes on to replace Oumar Ngom.
83
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno of Napoli committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Walid Cheddira from Lecce earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Konan N'Dri from Lecce takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Omri Gandelman.
82
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ylber Ramadani from Lecce took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Corrie Ndaba replaces Antonino Gallo.
79
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Konan N'Dri replaces Santiago Pierotti.
78
Update Update
Miguel Gutiérrez from Napoli committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Lameck Banda from Lecce has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
76
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Danilo Veiga allowed the ball to go out.
76
Update Update
Another offensive play underway. Alisson Santos from Napoli attempts a header from the middle of the box, but Wladimiro Falcone of Lecce makes a great save, keeping it out at the top center of the goal.
74
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Alisson Santos from Napoli attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Miguel Gutiérrez comes on to replace Matteo Politano, who is unable to continue due to injury.
72
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Pasquale Mazzocchi replaces Leonardo Spinazzola.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lecce after Alessandro Buongiorno allowed the ball to go out.
70
Update Update
Matteo Politano from Napoli committed a foul.
70
Update Update
Danilo Veiga from Lecce has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Update Update
Danilo Veiga from Lecce has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
69
Update Update
Scott McTominay committed a foul against a Napoli player.
67
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Napoli takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Lecce. Matteo Politano scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the middle of the net following a corner kick.
66
Update Update
Lameck Banda from Lecce committed a foul.
66
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli, following a foul by Jamil Siebert.
66
Update Update
Matteo Politano from Napoli was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
65
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Kevin De Bruyne took a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Mathías Olivera.
65
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Alisson Santos from Napoli takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
64
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Walid Cheddira from Lecce attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went just wide. The setup came from Lameck Banda, who delivered a cross.
61
Update Update
Kevin De Bruyne committed a foul against Napoli.
61
Update Update
Wladimiro Falcone from Lecce has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Scott McTominay from Napoli fires a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
60
Update Update
Foul committed by Omri Gandelman of Lecce.
60
Update Update
Scott McTominay from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
59
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Walid Cheddira is coming on to replace Nikola Stulic.
57
Update Update
Lameck Banda from Lecce has been awarded a free kick on the left side of the field.
57
Update Update
Sam Beukema from Napoli committed a foul.
53
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. Rasmus Højlund of Napoli attempted a header from the center of the penalty area.
49
Update Update
Ylber Ramadani from Lecce committed a foul.
49
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Tiago Gabriel from Lecce attempted a header from the left side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The cross was delivered by Ylber Ramadani.
49
Update Update
Scott McTominay from Napoli earned a free kick in an offensive position.
48
Update Update
Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Nikola Stulic from Lecce has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
46
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Napoli 1, Lecce 1. Rasmus Højlund scores for Napoli with a left-footed shot from close range.
45
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive play unfolds as Nikola Stulic from Lecce takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Alex Meret of Napoli makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist was provided by Santiago Pierotti.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lecce after a deflection off Alex Meret.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Matteo Politano from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
45
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Matteo Politano from Napoli took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went just wide. The assist came from Eljif Elmas.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score at Napoli 0, Lecce 1.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Napoli trailing Lecce 1-0.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Scott McTominay comes on to replace Eljif Elmas.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Lecce: Omri Gandelman comes on to replace Lassana Coulibaly, who has sustained an injury.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Kevin De Bruyne comes on to replace Frank Anguissa.
43
Update Update
Matteo Politano from Napoli was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
43
Update Update
Lameck Banda from Lecce committed a foul.
42
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Lassana Coulibaly from Lecce.
42
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
39
Update Update
Frank Anguissa from Napoli committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Oumar Ngom from Lecce was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
35
Update Update
Danilo Veiga from Lecce committed a foul.
35
Update Update
Alisson Santos from Napoli has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Lameck Banda from Lecce took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
32
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Oumar Ngom from Lecce takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right, but it's successfully blocked.
31
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lecce after a play by Leonardo Spinazzola resulted in a deflection.
28
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lecce after Alisson Santos allowed the ball to go out.
25
Update Update
Match interruption - Napoli.
25
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play now.
24
Update Update
Frank Anguissa from Napoli committed a foul.
24
Update Update
Lecce's Lassana Coulibaly earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
22
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after Antonino Gallo allowed the ball to go out of play.
19
Update Update
Rasmus Højlund from Napoli was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
19
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Jamil Siebert from Lecce has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
19
Update Update
Jamil Siebert from Lecce committed a foul.
17
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Billy Gilmour from Napoli took a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Alisson Santos during a quick counterattack.
16
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted! Tiago Gabriel of Lecce headed the ball from close range but sent it over the bar. The assist came from Antonino Gallo, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lecce after a foul by Mathías Olivera.
15
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Lecce after a play that resulted in a deflection off Mathías Olivera.
13
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
13
Update Update
Match interruption - Napoli.
12
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
12
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Matteo Politano from Napoli attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner kick.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli after Lassana Coulibaly allowed the ball to go out.
11
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Lassana Coulibaly from Lecce.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Napoli, following a foul by Antonino Gallo.
10
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alisson Santos from Napoli takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Billy Gilmour, who set him up with a header.
8
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Lameck Banda from Lecce fires a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lassana Coulibaly.
7
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Lassana Coulibaly from Lecce attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
4
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Napoli after Danilo Veiga allowed the ball to go out.
3
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Lecce takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Napoli. Jamil Siebert scores with a header from the middle of the box, sending the ball into the upper part of the net. The assist came from Antonino Gallo, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
2
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lecce after a foul by Billy Gilmour.
1
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Lecce after Alessandro Buongiorno allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Napoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Napoli vs Lecce preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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