Napoli vs Bologna Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Serie A
Bologna BOLSTANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
Napoli hosted Bologna in a match that ended 2-3 in favor of the visitors, marking an upset as Napoli entered as the stronger team. The home side held 52% possession compared to Bologna's 48%, yet failed to secure victory. At halftime, the score stood at 1-2 for Bologna, who maintained their lead into the second half without any reported adjustments. No red cards were issued, and the game proceeded without major disciplinary distortions. Bologna's win highlighted a significant structural deviation of 85%, with the outcome not aligning with pre-match market expectations where Napoli were heavily favored. Efficiency levels for both teams stayed in line with typical patterns, though xG data was unavailable for deeper analysis. This result underscores Bologna's clinical finishing despite lower possession, exposing Napoli's vulnerabilities in conversion.
TL;DR
- Structural deviation: Bologna's 3-2 victory over Napoli showed a significant structural deviation of 85%.
- Efficiency shift: Both teams' efficiency remained in line with expectations.
- xG alignment: xG data unavailable prevented assessment of alignment with outcome.
- Market alignment: The result did not align with pre-match market expectations.
- xG expectations: xG expectations could not be evaluated due to missing data.
- Event impact: No second-half adjustments or key events altered the game's flow.
- Red card distortion: Absence of red cards meant no distortion from disciplinary actions.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Match referee
M. Piccinini
Other match officials
V. Colarossi
1st Assistant
D. Yoshikawa
2nd Assistant
M. Perri
4th Official
League averages
Serie A Based on last 100 matches


Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Napoli
BolognaMovement
Changes since opening
Napoli
BolognaTeam Power Ranking
i
85.32
78.84
Napoli
BolognaForm Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.


Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Napoli
Bologna

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Napoli ⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency 
Defensive Efficiency 
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)




Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Napoli ⚠ Proxy
Napoli Bologna
Napoli Bologna
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Napoli
Napoli Bologna


Napoli Bologna


PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- NAP had peak pressure around 53'.
- BOL started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 37 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.


Match Record 
Goals 
Data last updated: 2026-05-12T00:03:19+00:00
STARTING XI
Napoli
Bologna






















































General Information
Next Match

Napoli
vs

Pisa
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani

Bologna
vs

Atalanta
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 17 May - 12:00 AM
Venue: Gewiss Stadium
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
NapoliManager ▼

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Substitutes ▼




Bench ▼







BolognaManager ▼

Starting XI ▼
















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Bench ▼







Events
CONCLUSION
Napoli vs Bologna preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.
Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.
How We Build This Analysis
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Match Commentary