Napoli vs AC Milan Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona Mon, 6 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Napoli NAP
1 Winner 0
AC Milan MIL
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 6:45 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Matteo Politano  - 79'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match is officially finished, resulting in a 1-0 full-time victory for Napoli over AC Milan. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely even at 0-0, the home side broke the deadlock in the second half to secure the win. This outcome successfully aligned with the pre-match market, which favored the stronger Napoli side with a 38.4% implied win probability, compared to a 31.5% chance for a draw and 30.1% for an AC Milan victory. Despite being the favorites, securing the victory still represented a significant deviation level for Napoli to overcome the relatively tight pre-match margins. On the pitch, Napoli controlled a slight majority of the game, finishing with 53% possession compared to AC Milan's 47%. While expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture to determine if the scoreline matched the underlying chance quality, the overall scoring efficiency shifted firmly in line with expectations. Furthermore, the match concluded without any red cards being issued to either side, meaning major disciplinary events played no role in the final result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Napoli showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality

Match referee

D. Doveri

25 matches in sample
Avg. cards 0.12
Fouls / match 0.52
Yellow cards / match 0.12
Red cards / match 0
Penalties / match 0

Other match officials

G. Baccini

1st Assistant

V. Colarossi

2nd Assistant

L. Pairetto

4th Official

Napoli A. Conte
A. Conte
VS
AC Milan M. Allegri
M. Allegri
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.08
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Cagliari Rank: 69 W
Lecce Rank: 69 W
Torino Rank: 74 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Atalanta Rank: 86 L
Roma Rank: 84 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Torino Rank: 74 W
Lazio Rank: 79 L
Inter Rank: 91 W
Cremonese Rank: 67 W
Parma Rank: 71 L
Como Rank: 84 D
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 13 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Napoli
38.41%
Draw
31.45%
Away AC Milan
30.14%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
86.96
86.42
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Napoli
AC Milan
Power Score
86.96
86.42
League Position
2
3
Global Rank
23
25

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Napoli — Opponent-weighted form score
AC Milan — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Napoli AC Milan

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Napoli

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

AC Milan

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Napoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.64
19.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.36
22.64
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Napoli +0.35 Efficiency Index
vs
AC Milan -0.35 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Napoli
AC Milan
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Napoli ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy AC Milan
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Napoli AC Milan
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Napoli AC Milan
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Napoli
AC Milan
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Napoli
vs
AC Milan
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Napoli AC Milan
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Napoli 0.25
AC Milan 0.17
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Napoli AC Milan
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Napoli 0.00
AC Milan 0.03
Napoli
AC Milan
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Napoli NAP Home
40 matches
AC Milan MIL Away
Match Record
15
Wins
12
13
Draws
13
12
Losses
15
Goals
55
Goals Scored
52
52
Goals Conceded
55
+3
Goal Difference
-3

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:05:40+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
V. Milinković Savić
Serbia
32 V. Milinković Savić
J. Nunes Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
5 J. Nunes Jesus
A. Buongiorno
Italy
4 A. Buongiorno
M. Olivera Miramontes
Uruguay
17 M. Olivera Miramontes
M. Gutiérrez Ortega
Spain
3 M. Gutiérrez Ortega
A. Zambo Anguissa
Cameroon
99 A. Zambo Anguissa
S. Lobotka
Slovakia
68 S. Lobotka
L. Spinazzola
Substitution
Italy
37 L. Spinazzola
K. De Bruyne
Substitution
Belgium
11 K. De Bruyne
S. McTominay
Scotland
8 S. McTominay
G. Santana do Nascimento
Substitution
Brazil
23 G. Santana do Nascimento
Pitch
M. Maignan
France
16 M. Maignan
S. Pavlović
Serbia
31 S. Pavlović
K. De Winter
Belgium
5 K. De Winter
F. Tomori
Substitution
England
23 F. Tomori
D. Bartesaghi
Italy
33 D. Bartesaghi
A. Rabiot
France
12 A. Rabiot
L. Modrić
Croatia
14 L. Modrić
Y. Fofana
Substitution
France
19 Y. Fofana
A. Saelemaekers
Substitution
Belgium
56 A. Saelemaekers
C. Nkunku
Substitution
France
18 C. Nkunku
N. Füllkrug
Substitution
Germany
9 N. Füllkrug

General Information

Date & Time :
Apr 06, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Capacity :
54726
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Daniele Doveri
Giovanni Baccini
Valerio Colarossi
Luca Pairetto

Statistics

Possession
NAP
52%
MIL
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 1
40 Dangerous attacks 42
53 Possession 47
4 Corners 3
6 Free kicks 7
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

6 Goal Kicks 11
11 Dribble Attempts 7
18 Throwins 19
7 Successful Dribbles 4
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 57
9 Successful Headers 13
56 Ball Safe 66
8 Goal Attempts 6
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

92 Attacks 80
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

90 Successful Passes Percentage 85
470 Successful Passes 395
523 Passes 465
34 Long Passes 41
6 Key Passes 6
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54
17 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

29 Duels Won 35
9 Interceptions 10
1 Saves 2
8 Tackles 11

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 7

Discipline

7 Fouls 6
5 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

32
Vanja Milinković-Savić
Vanja Milinković-Savić Goalkeeper
4
Alessandro Buongiorno
Alessandro Buongiorno Defender
5
Juan Jesus
Juan Jesus Defender
31
Sam Beukema
Sam Beukema
Defender85'
17
Mathías Olivera
Mathías Olivera Defender
3
Miguel Gutiérrez
Miguel Gutiérrez Midfielder
37
Leonardo Spinazzola
Leonardo Spinazzola Midfielder
21
Matteo Politano
Matteo Politano
Attacker74'
68
Stanislav Lobotka
Stanislav Lobotka Midfielder
99
Frank Anguissa
Frank Anguissa Midfielder
8
Scott McTominay
Scott McTominay Attacker
11
Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne Attacker
20
Eljif Elmas
Eljif Elmas
Midfielder85'
23
Giovane
Giovane Attacker
27
Alisson Santos
Alisson Santos
Attacker70'
Referee : Daniele Doveri

Starting XI ▼

16
Mike Maignan
Mike Maignan Goalkeeper
5
Koni De Winter
Koni De Winter Defender
23
Fikayo Tomori
Fikayo Tomori Defender
8
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Ruben Loftus-Cheek
Midfielder82'
31
Strahinja Pavlović
Strahinja Pavlović Defender
12
Adrien Rabiot
Adrien Rabiot Midfielder
14
Luka Modrić
Luka Modrić Midfielder
19
Youssouf Fofana
Youssouf Fofana Midfielder
10
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão
Attacker82'
33
Davide Bartesaghi
Davide Bartesaghi Midfielder
56
Alexis Saelemaekers
Alexis Saelemaekers Midfielder
24
Zachary Athekame
Zachary Athekame
Defender62'
9
Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug Attacker
7
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
Attacker63'
18
Christopher Nkunku
Christopher Nkunku Attacker
11
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic
Midfielder74'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Sam Beukema → Juan Jesus
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Eljif Elmas → Kevin De Bruyne 
9th Substitution
85'
82'
Event
Ruben Loftus-Cheek  → Fikayo Tomori
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Rafael Leão → Youssouf Fofana
7th Substitution
Event
Matteo Politano 
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
81'
Event
Matteo Politano 
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
79'
Event
Matteo Politano  → Leonardo Spinazzola
4th Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Christian Pulisic → Christopher Nkunku
5th Substitution
Event
Alisson Santos → Giovane
3rd Substitution
70'
63'
Event
Santiago Gimenez → Niclas Füllkrug
2nd Substitution
62'
Event
Zachary Athekame → Alexis Saelemaekers
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Alessandro Buongiorno
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
12'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The second half ends with Napoli leading AC Milan 1-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Rafael Leão from AC Milan missed a chance with a right-footed shot from the center of the box.
90
Update Update
Foul by Santiago Giménez - AC Milan.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 5 minutes of added time.
90
Corner Corner
AC Milan wins a corner after Mathías Olivera concedes.
90
Update Update
Frank Anguissa from Napoli won a free kick on the right wing.
90
Corner Corner
AC Milan wins a corner after Matteo Politano concedes.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Eljif Elmas of Napoli.
90
Update Update
Christian Pulisic of AC Milan won a free kick in defense.
86
Attempt Attempt
Santiago Giménez of AC Milan had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just near the goal. The assist came from Zachary Athekame with a cross.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Sam Beukema replaces Juan Jesus.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Eljif Elmas replaces Kevin De Bruyne.
84
Corner Corner
AC Milan wins a corner after Juan Jesus concedes.
83
Attempt Attempt
Strahinja Pavlovic of AC Milan missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. Luka Modric provided the assist with a cross.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Rafael Leão replaces Youssouf Fofana.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Ruben Loftus-Cheek replaces Fikayo Tomori.
81
Update Update
Christian Pulisic from AC Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
81
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Matteo Politano from Napoli receives a yellow card for a foul.
81
Update Update
Foul committed by Matteo Politano of Napoli.
79
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Napoli leads AC Milan 1-0. Matteo Politano scores for Napoli with a left-footed shot from a difficult position on the right.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Matteo Politano replaces Leonardo Spinazzola.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Christian Pulisic replaces Christopher Nkunku.
72
Corner Corner
Napoli wins a corner after Zachary Athekame concedes.
72
Corner Corner
Frank Anguissa from Napoli attempts an attack with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Mike Maignan from AC Milan saves it in the top left corner.
72
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Mike Maignan of AC Milan.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Napoli: Alisson Santos replaces Giovane.
69
Update Update
Frank Anguissa from Napoli won a free kick on the left wing.
69
Update Update
Foul committed by Adrien Rabiot - AC Milan.
68
Update Update
Giovane from Napoli won a free kick in the attacking area.
68
Update Update
Koni De Winter of AC Milan committed a foul.
66
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Zachary Athekame of AC Milan took a right-footed shot from outside the box.
65
Update Update
Foul committed by Frank Anguissa of Napoli.
65
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot of AC Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
64
Update Update
Offside called against Napoli. Giovane is in an offside position.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Santiago Giménez replaces Niclas Füllkrug.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for AC Milan: Zachary Athekame replaces Alexis Saelemaekers.
59
Update Update
Offside called against Napoli. Giovane is in an offside position.
57
Update Update
Frank Anguissa of Napoli misses a chance with a header from the center of the box.
56
Update Update
Offside called against Napoli. Scott McTominay is offside.
54
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Mathías Olivera from Napoli shoots with his left foot from a difficult position on the left, but the ball goes high and wide to the left.
52
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Stanislav Lobotka of Napoli takes a right-footed shot from outside the box after a corner, but it goes wide.
51
Corner Corner
Napoli wins a corner after Mike Maignan concedes.
51
Corner Corner
Napoli wins a corner after Mike Maignan concedes.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Attempt Attempt
Scott McTominay had a missed chance for Napoli, shooting with his right foot from the center of the box, but it went close and missed. The assist came from Stanislav Lobotka.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Napoli and AC Milan drawing 0-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the match still tied at 0-0 between Napoli and AC Milan.
43
Update Update
Offside called against AC Milan. Niclas Füllkrug is offside.
40
Update Update
Niclas Füllkrug of AC Milan won a free kick in defense.
40
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Buongiorno of Napoli.
37
Corner Corner
Missed chance. Alessandro Buongiorno from Napoli heads the ball wide from inside the six-yard box on the left side after a corner.
36
Corner Corner
Napoli wins a corner after Strahinja Pavlovic concedes.
36
Attempt Attempt
Giovane's left-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The assist came from Mathías Olivera.
35
Corner Corner
Missed chance for AC Milan. Christopher Nkunku's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is close but misses the top left corner. The assist came from Youssouf Fofana after a fast break.
34
Update Update
Offside called against AC Milan. Adrien Rabiot is offside.
34
Update Update
Offside called against Napoli. Giovane is in an offside position.
29
Update Update
Giovane from Napoli won a free kick in the attacking area.
29
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic fouled an AC Milan player.
23
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Leonardo Spinazzola of Napoli shoots with his right foot from the center of the box.
19
Corner Corner
Napoli wins a corner after Alexis Saelemaekers concedes.
13
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic from AC Milan misses a header from the center of the box.
12
Update Update
Luka Modric of AC Milan won a free kick on the right wing.
12
Update Update
Foul committed by Alessandro Buongiorno of Napoli.
12
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alessandro Buongiorno of Napoli receives a yellow card for a foul.
10
Update Update
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli won a free kick in an attacking position.
10
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic fouled an AC Milan player.
7
Update Update
Offside called against Napoli. Giovane is in an offside position.
6
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Youssouf Fofana of AC Milan takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved by Napoli's goalkeeper Vanja Milinkovic-Savic, with an assist from Christopher Nkunku.
5
Update Update
Strahinja Pavlovic of AC Milan won a free kick on the left wing.
5
Update Update
Foul committed by Miguel Gutiérrez of Napoli.
4
Update Update
Adrien Rabiot from AC Milan won a free kick on the right wing.
4
Update Update
Foul committed by Frank Anguissa of Napoli.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Napoli exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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