Nantes vs Toulouse Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Nantes NAN
Versus
Toulouse TOU
KICKOFF : Sun, 17 May - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Nantes welcome Toulouse to the Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau for a crucial Ligue 1 regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 17th in the table, Nantes are embroiled in a relegation scrap, desperate for home points to steady their ship. Toulouse, comfortably 10th, aim to push towards European contention with their superior overall strength. Toulouse boast a higher power score of 74.58 against Nantes' 66.84, translating to a 7.7-point advantage that underscores their edge in underlying quality. Recent form tilts towards the visitors too, with a 21.33 rating eclipsing Nantes' 13.39, suggesting momentum in their camp. At home, Nantes will lean on defensive resilience, but Toulouse's attacking fluency could exploit any lapses. This evenly poised encounter promises intensity, with both sides needing a result to fuel their ambitions.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Toulouse holds a structural advantage with a 74.58 power score versus Nantes' 66.84 and 10th place against 17th.
  • Form: Toulouse shows stronger recent form at 21.33 compared to Nantes' 13.39.
  • Squad: Toulouse rated as the stronger squad with a 7.7-point power advantage.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency data available for this fixture.
  • Transition: No transition play metrics provided in available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable due to lack of xG information and low confidence proxies.
  • xVariable: No xG or advanced variable metrics available for analysis.
  • Market: Nantes 36.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.7% (Δ+0%) | Toulouse 36.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Nantes V. Halilhodžić
V. Halilhodžić
VS
Toulouse C. Martínez Novell
C. Martínez Novell
0.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lens Rank: 82 L
Olympique Marseille Rank: 80 W
Rennes Rank: 79 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 94 L
Brest Rank: 73 D
Auxerre Rank: 71 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Olympique Lyonnais Rank: 83 W
Strasbourg Rank: 79 W
Monaco Rank: 79 D
Lens Rank: 83 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
Paris Saint Germain Rank: 95 L
8
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
8 - 12 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Nantes
36.66%
Draw
26.69%
Away Toulouse
36.66%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.84
74.58
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Nantes
Toulouse
Power Score
66.84
74.58
League Position
17
10
Global Rank
286
126

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Nantes — Opponent-weighted form score
Toulouse — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Nantes Toulouse

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Nantes NAN Home
26 matches
Toulouse TOU Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
12
Draws
12
6
Losses
8
Goals
31
Goals Scored
21
21
Goals Conceded
31
+10
Goal Difference
-10

Data last updated: 2026-05-13T01:08:16+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Lopes
1 A. Lopes
C. Collins Awaziem
6 C. Collins Awaziem
A. Youssef
2 A. Youssef
N. Cozza
3 N. Cozza
F. Guilbert
24 F. Guilbert
M. Kaba
21 M. Kaba
J. Lepenant
8 J. Lepenant
I. Sissoko
28 I. Sissoko
M. Acapandié
22 M. Acapandié
I. Kpene Ganago
37 I. Kpene Ganago
M. Abline
10 M. Abline
Pitch
G. Restes
1 G. Restes
R. Nicolaisen
2 R. Nicolaisen
C. Cresswell
4 C. Cresswell
M. McKenzie
3 M. McKenzie
D. Methalie
24 D. Methalie
A. Vossah
45 A. Vossah
C. Cásseres Yepes
23 C. Cásseres Yepes
D. Sidibé
19 D. Sidibé
Y. Gboho
10 Y. Gboho
S. Hidalgo Massa
11 S. Hidalgo Massa
J. Russell-Rowe
13 J. Russell-Rowe

General Information

Date & Time :
May 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau
Capacity :
37473
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Anthony Lopes
Anthony Lopes Goalkeeper
6.93
22
Mathieu Acapandié
Mathieu Acapandié Midfielder
6.43
24
Frédéric Guilbert
Frédéric Guilbert Midfielder
7.11
37
Ignatius Ganago
Ignatius Ganago Attacker
6.9
10
Matthis Abline
Matthis Abline Attacker
6.84
3
Nicolas Cozza
Nicolas Cozza Left Back
6.61
6
Chidozie Awaziem
Chidozie Awaziem Right Back
6.86
21
Mohamed Kaba
Mohamed Kaba Central Midfield
6.98
28
Ibrahima Sissoko
Ibrahima Sissoko Central Midfield
6.59
8
Johann Lepenant
Johann Lepenant Central Midfield
6.88
2
Ali Youssef
Ali Youssef Centre Back
6.75

Starting XI ▼

1
Guillaume Restes
Guillaume Restes Goalkeeper
6.77
10
Yann Gboho
Yann Gboho Midfielder
7.04
11
Santiago Hidalgo
Santiago Hidalgo Midfielder
6.78
24
Dayann Methalie
Dayann Methalie Midfielder
6.5
19
Djibril Sidibé
Djibril Sidibé Midfielder
6.71
13
Jacen Russell-Rowe
Jacen Russell-Rowe Centre Forward
6.57
3
Mark McKenzie
Mark McKenzie Right Back
6.74
23
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Central Midfield
7.09
45
Alexis Vossah
Alexis Vossah Central Midfield
6.45
4
Charlie Cresswell
Charlie Cresswell Centre Back
7.04
2
Rasmus Nicolaisen
Rasmus Nicolaisen Left Back
6.72

CONCLUSION

Toulouse arrive as the form team and power favourites, but Nantes' home turf at Beaujoire could level the playing field in this Ligue 1 showdown. The visitors' 7.7-point edge and better recent showings position them to edge a tight contest, yet Nantes' urgency in the drop zone demands a gritty response. Expect a cagey affair with few clear-cut chances, where discipline and clinical finishing decide the spoils. Toulouse's superior rating hints at three points, but Nantes' desperation might force a draw. Key battles in midfield will dictate the flow, setting the tone for both sides' seasonal trajectories.

Nantes vs Toulouse preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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